3 Things About The Steemit Ecosystem, Pulled From Data
I love data. Well, to be more precise, I love to make statements based on data, and not on hunches, my own expectations or other people opinions. It seems to me that statements based on data seem to be more accurate. Those of you following my daily market snapshots know what I'm talking about.
So, in this post I will try to look at two data sets that are relevant for the Steem ecosystem. The first data set is the STEEM price, as crawled by Coinmarketcap. The second data set is the daily traffic of the steem.supply website. The time span is one year.
If you don't know what steem.supply is, it's a free service where you can see the upcoming rewards on the Steem bockchain, for any user. It's one of the most popular tools in the ecosystem (according to the users' opinion, not mine).
So, let's go for this:
STEEM Price For The Last Year
Steem.Supply Traffic For The Last Year
Here are my thoughts about these two charts:
There's a clear correlation between the price of the underlying asset of the blockchain, STEEM, and the user's interest on the platform.
In other words, the higher the price of STEEM, the higher the interest of users about their rewards. It may seem a no-brainer, one of those "Dooooh!" moments, but this correlation is so tight that it becomes very relevant.
Simply put: users are incentivized by the value of the asset to participate more. The current structure of the asset (with limited liquidity, see the Steem Power locking down mechanism) plays a very important role here, because it's basically turning users into stakeholders.
The user base is still relatively low, but once this user base goes over a certain threshold (I have no idea what that threshold should be) it will be incentivized to maintain and increase the value of the asset. It's like being a whale in the Bitcoin world.
After a certain threshold, the user base can act like a "collective whale" that will protect the asset.
We are in the same place as last year
From an economical point of view, we are in a very similar place (read: STEEM price) with last year August.
But from a technological and social point of view we are in a very different position. We had a few profound updates of the platform and the user base grew over 1,000,000 (I estimate that the active user base is somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000, though).
That means the value of the asset is actually bigger than last year. It's one thing to have 20 people owning each a dollar, and a completely different thing to have 200,000 people owning each a dollar.
That's going to have a snowballing effect once the speculation frenzy will start to dwindle.
Any economy works in cycles
If you look at the big hump in December, you may recognize it as a "super-heating" symptom. It gradually went down and now it's stabilizing on a previous stable level.
Looks like we might be at the beginning of a new cycle.
Wether or not this will happen, though, is out of my reach. It just remains to be seen, but I'm leaning towards the optimistic side on this one.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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I know the feeling. That's why I created steem.supply, an easy to use and accurate tool for calculating your Steemit rewards |
You are my favorite splainer about this sort of stuff
Thanks!
Mine too!
As steem price going up more users come to the platform some new and some are not use it on daily basic --> more users in steemit = more users in other sites with related to steemit
i love your site and use it on daily basic , the best way i found to see my future income
I think we are in the Through of Disillusionment phase of the Gardner Hype Cycle graph. Just getting ready to enter the Slope of Enlightenment. :)
I agree especially because SMTs are coming and if that won't speed up our approach to the Slope on this graph, then nothing will.
If SMTs are the way, we are at the Disillusionment. If not, Steem might just as well be considered dead.
But I'm optimistic.
hey, @santigs.
I don't suppose that graph has any particular timetable, which means you're saying we've gone through all of the preceding points, rolled down the hill and are pretty much somewhere in the final dip before we ride off into the eternal sunset. :)
Yes, that's my thinking but of course, I could be wrong. Gardner's is a Hype cycle which in my opinion will match price evolution.
https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle
So, I took a look a the link. While Gartner's Hype Graph would definitely seem to work for STEEM on its own, it has a wider application to crypto and particularly blockchain technology, does it not? I keep hearing that we don't know all of applications for blockchain yet. So, I would imagine as the underlying technology continues to be experimented with, the more it will benefit all of cryptocurrency and perhaps STEEM in particular.
Yes, Gartner talks about blockchain and crypto industry as a global and probably uses Bitcoin as the most relevant data for its predictions but most of the crypto projects, Steem included, will probably follow that same curve as there is a huge correlation between Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins.
To be sincere, I do not understand any of your terminology.
https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle
I'm kind of expecting we will see a similarly crazy december as last year when it comes to price action.
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I've noticed that too for awhile now. But my main concern is the decline in active users but more platforms springing up everyday.
Hede.io
Musing.io and many more.
Yeah data/facts never lie, Contrary to hunches and estimates.
I am highly optimistic about future of steemit...
And we all love steem.supply...
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I keep reading about parallels between last year and this year (some from you, but there are a few others) and I have to say, it's encouraging. I'm glad to hear we're still talking about an upswing at some point. It's been a long summer for those of us who have less than a year under our belts, so aside from the easy to understand way you put things, it's also just plain soothing to have someone pointing out that this has happened before, which means what we're seeing is likely to repeat throughout the entire cycle, and then likely happen again.
Hang in there :)
It is important to consider the difference between investors and profiteers, and my position is that the present stake-weighting mechanism encourages the latter at the expense of the former, which results in the failure of underlying token (Steem) to exhibit the predicted resistance to general market pressure (i.e. simply reflecting BTC price fluctuations).
I expect the introduction of SOC (SMTs, Oracles, and Communities) to potentiate a paradigm shift that will enable communities focused on enabling investment (HODLing stake) rather than maximally extractive strategies (profiteering) to produce the anticipated effect.
Thanks!