Contrarian Take: 5 Reasons SMT's will send steem to ZERO

in #steem5 years ago (edited)

Disclaimer: This contrarian take is just a hypothesis I've been kicking around in my head. I haven't committed to speculate that it would confidently happen, only that the logic is solid and it's a possibility. I also don't want to join a circlejerk over trading led by stephenkendal who notoriously only pumps alt coins he owns. I believe that if his "model" was worth anything he would lever up and short just the same, practically doubling the opportunities at large percentage moves. Or maybe he doesn't know the markup code for the DMAmapping diagonal down arrow. Anything's possible....j/k stephen.

5 Reasons SMT's will send steem to ZERO

Reason 1: The best and most practical use case for this already exists...

...and it exists in the form of bitcoin or straight cash, homey. Between tips, paywalls, subscriptions, etc. There are already many plugins and products that offer this. The only generation this type of "virtual goods" gimmick actually works on in mass scale is the generation that doesn't have money or a job. That's the "consumer" side, which leads me to the "producer" side for...

(using the same practical use case...)

Reason 2: 99.999999% of Content Creators are scraping by month to month

I've been broke. I've been well off. I've also been scraping by month to month.

Most content creators are broke, very few are scraping by, and the ones that made it keep their brand and associations very tight. One small misstep could cost them everything. Then there is the super creators aka major news publications that also, wouldn't entertain this idea. Shit, steem would have to pay them tbh.

At the end of the day, cash (or bitcoin) keeps the only content creators that are close to making their dream a reality alive. They can't afford to have steem locked up for a white labeled token.

Now we hit the textbooks and economic theory...

(I have no idea what that textbook says but there's a 70% chance it directly translates to: "she's not talking to you or buying your coin"...)

Reason 3: Artificial demand

Even worse...it's a derivative of artificial demand since your influence on this platform is already determined by how much steem you have locked up in steem power. It doesn't really matter that it's pegged to steem because steem is worth $1 while bitcoin is worth $4K. It would be like pegging a somalian shilling to copper and thinking you could find an exchange to flip infinity of them to a profit.

In more comical terms...in order for this to theoretically work, the scenario would have to be the following:

Content creators that rely on their brand's reputation to keep cashing big checks and stay out of the rat race would have to:

  • take on an unnecessary risk and lock up a significant amount of their money in steempower for a minimum of 2 years
  • heavily persuade and convince their subscribers, followers , tribe, etc that an emoji looking coin on their screen has value because it's "pegged"to steem and then convince them that steem has value after that
  • explain economic terms such as "opportunity cost" to a bunch of twitch kids after failing to beat 300 other alt coins over the same duration, some of which have real world utility to disrupt major industries
  • beat the major coins over the same duration
  • assume that transactionally, the fees won't rise (they will) and eat the value of emoji coin. There would be a minimum of 3 transactions.
  • get sued by some kid's parents for literally anything related to it
  • go broke and take on debt hiring a firm trying to ICO "Resume Gap Coin" (RGC)

...j/k it still didn't work.

Reason 4: In the event it did work, facebook would do something similar and simpler (probably without the blockchain) and we would DMAmapp out of this solar system

FB has the smartest engineers on the planet. the velocity at which they could put out a product to eliminate SMTs to stay on their platform where your entire life is already documented breaks all laws of physics

Reason 5: Some wildcard would find a way to do something on a level of stupid that causes an uproar loud enough to shut it down

In all honesty, 5 has got to be the odds on favorite by multiple lengths.

Final Thoughts

I like steemit and hope it succeeds.

Though this is half parody, half serious and I haven't yet made up my mind nor done nearly enough research, reading, or serious thought to whether this would work, my snap reax was that it wouldn't. But the jets are 2-2 and amateur technical analysis are the new gambling touts. lastly, we're all a day closer to death and you can't take your steem with you. and eat arby's.

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Wow, that's so well written and so insightful I'm afraid to even attempt my own post on this subject; I think I'll just comment on everybody else's this time..

5 - love it - I would say SMTs open up so many cans of worms, I would have to agree.

SMTs:

  • Just one more distraction... from showing the world what a great new model exists for the internet?
  • Or the way forward for the Steem blockchain to show the world how much more powerful it is than previous generation BCs that came before it?

I would also have to add, I hate ads. But I know there is Mucho Dinero involved. Mucho Trillions Dinero.

I do agree; FB is watching; and they will make a move at some point.
They are looking down the barrel of a potential model that can replace them. What do they do about it?

appreciate the read and detailed comment. my upvotes suck atm but have one anyways. i'll follow and get you with one down the line when my SP is back up.

Forgot to ask. No need to upvote my blog here to try and get someone influential on here to help the hurricane victims but if you wouldn't mind considering a resteem to your 1500+ followers in hopes it catches whales attention that is willing to take on the project, that would be awesome. if not, no worries.

https://steemit.com/life/@wetthebeak/why-is-there-no-charity-thread-for-upvotes-to-help-hurricane-victims

cheers.

Content creators that rely on their brand's reputation to keep cashing big checks and stay out of the rat race would have to:

take on an unnecessary risk and lock up a significant amount of their money in steempower for a minimum of 2 years

Why 2 years? Where are you getting this information?

hey man, i put a disclaimer in there that i was shooting from the hip because I hadn't had the time to fully research it yet! :)

...but what I assumed was that you had to own steempower (2 year drawdown period). even if it's just steem and not steempower though, you still need to put the cash up and hold it in your account to get in the game.

That 2 year thing is long gone it's now 13 weeks to power down. If you haven't you can check out the Blue Paper which is a condensed version of the New White Paper.

My take on the SMTs is that Steemit wants to provide a tool for anyone that wants to power their websites with a blockchain token without the need to develop a blockchain.

I expect a lot of shitcoins to come out of this...and a few scams. But I also expect that some serious projects will be borne out of this.

i do hope you're right, but fear you're wrong.

i haven't had the time to even creatively think about possible applications for it besides the example given during the announcement.

It's actually a 13 week power down period.

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Lack of votes to this post says it all!

lack of votes to this post is because I don't operate an influential account for enough to even notice the post.

nice avi, great comment, all around good effort.

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