Steem rambles on
Another Sunday night has arrived and the weekend is finishing up. Not that a weekend is all that much different to a working week for me at the moment anyway.
Today I crossed over into having 37,000 SP which I consider a pretty monumental effort. The earning of it is one thing of course but the holding of it through the continual drama on the platform is another all together. It is really going to get interesting when prices increase. I don't say if because the prices at the moment are almost no indicator of anything at all, no matter what anyone says about top 50 or market sentiment. Sentiment is a ridiculous thing to consider when most of the projects don't actually have anything working. What is the sentiment based upon?
I would be interested to get a rundown of all the working and usable products and services offered by the top 50 currencies and of course, their usage statistics. I wonder how many have nothing to really show?
A few of my last posts have looked at ownership in various capacities and today I talked a little about sunk cost fallacies. Ever heard of someone who keeps investing into a dying project? Steem is not that project by the way. Facebook and the other centralized social platforms are.
Some wonder why people don't shift their activities onto Steem but I think one of the reasons is that people have put ten good years into these platforms, they have their lives, photos and histories there, they have convinced their friends to join, built their networks, have their chats and use it to plan their events. They have sunk so much effort into it that it is hard to walk away, no matter the privacy issues and bans, no matter that they haven't got anything out of it. They over value what they have put in.
They will eventually though.
"Getting something out of it" reminds me of another thing concerning the top 50. How much have each of them given away over the last year without any monetary investment in? The Steem inflation pool handed over 25 million Steem plus the conversions with high SBD prices. Even at current prices, that is a fair amount of value. About 7.5 million dollars worth... at current prices. at 60 cents, that is 15M at 1.20 that is 60M at the ATH of 8.00, that is going to be 400 million dollars worth of Steem that has been distributed from people posting, interest, witnessing. Tell me, do you think Youtube distributes more? What about when Steem hits 16? 25?
Yep, you could of course earn somewhere else and buy into crypto, even buy into Steem - How many do?
Sure, it might be a well way down the track before those types of numbers are possible but possible they are. 25 dollar Steem is about a market cap of 7 billion dollars. Seems like a lot? Not really. All it takes is the right conditions to set in and it could happen very fast indeed.
It is fun to think about in my opinion and while people consider what they would do if they won the lottery, I give much better odds of Steem hitting 500 than us all winning even minor prizes in the lottery. 50 would do just fine though for me, that is a lottery win I could retire on, not that I would. There are too many interesting things to be a part of in this world to retire.
I wouldn't count on Steem doing anything though really. I wouldn't count on any of the crypto projects out there to provide what they have promised but, investing into crypto isn't about reliability and guaranteed returns, it is largely a hail Mary for a chance to have what people spend lives dreaming about. This is why I find it incredible that so few are really taking hold of it and instead spend their opportunity bitching and whining like children.
That is okay. That leaves more Steem on the table for the people who are willing to consistently push through. Yeah, the scammers are going to profit too. People tend to focus only on them though as a reason not to take the opportunity themselves but, it is largely an excuse because most people don't have the skills, talent or drive to push on so, they call it all, "unfair". I am not 6'6" and can't dunk, it isn't fair I don't play in the NBA?
That is the other incredible thing here is because the bar to earn isn't NBA level, just about anyone can find a way to earn something here and often, by doing something they are already doing somewhere else. Perhaps the expectation that it should happen fast is the issue, crypto is get in, make a bundle, sell. Perhaps that is the case on speculation coins but people seem to forget that this is a token that is mined through work put in of some kind. The other coins are too really, as one has to have the money to buy from somewhere.
Current circumstances mean that I don't often have the money from my IRL life to buy-in with so, I do the work on chain. As I see it, the work I do here is often challenging yet I enjoy it. I enjoy the freedom I have to find my own ways through the seas, even if it isn't plain sailing, even if I have to adjust course, even if I fail from time to time. Failing isn't bad.
Well, I still consider each Steem I own to have a value above the ATH and since I am not going to be selling it lower, that is what it is going to be. You might scoff, that is okay, I don't mind. I know several entrepreneurs that were laughed at for their ideals, their boldness, their naivety to push when others considered it folly. I can guarantee that they have done better than the 99% because, they are the 1%. The one percent get a bad wrap because people consider them criminals or believe the only way they can be successful is to do underhanded business. Before judging, try watching them work - if you can keep up.
People want easy money but for most ho have money, it was a very long grind but almost all, did it doing something they enjoyed. I enjoy my time here which means that even in failure, I win. You might enjoy reading, gaming, driving, watching movies, eating - I don't know. Whatever it is, go do it.
Stop concerning yourself with the future if you aren't willing to work for it. In the case you do care about where you end up, start investing in where you want to be, not in what will keep you where you are.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
I'm following your every post. The work and thoughtfulness you put in daily is enormous. You post between 3 and 4 times a day. And all those posts are deep shit. You will be rewarded in so much more than Steem, I think. You will be rewarded in making a difference, in community, in being a visionary. People look up to you. I don't think you would get even 1/10th of the positivity from your posts on Facebook...
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Thank you, it is appreciated. I am always wondering (since everything is on the blockchain) what will happen looking back at predictions in 5 years from now.
I don't use Facebook other than to drop a picture of my daughter for family once in a while. I find the platform largely useless other than to keep up appearances.
If my organist friends wouldn't be on FB, I would have left it a year ago. I of course am promoting Steem to them as well but since organists usually are backward-looking, most will join Steem only when it is more painful to live without it than to endure the pains of onboarding (aka when mass-adoption happens). And I predict the beginnings of mass adoption when some celebrity or two goes Steem.
So anyone has connection to Gary Vaynerchuk or Tim Ferriss or James Altucher?
By the way, Altucher might not be as difficult to sell to because he promotes blockchain and crypto already.
Another route is for someone with government connections to sell Steem to some forward-looking government of some small country, like Estonia.
There celebrities will come, especially the ones who are worried about the state of the world and advertising. Sam Harris is one of those I think.
@sorin.cristescu is looking into doing just that with the EU.
I don't think people move from Facebook to Steem because right now it's comparing Apples to Oranges. Steem doesn't haven't Facebook competitor right now. Steemit is more of a blogging platform.
Facebook is more of a status update, picture sharing, soap box if you will. Sharing short little updates on things that you like. Minds is more of a Facebook competitor.
Maybe someone someday will develop a competitor to Facebook on this blockchain. I'd even like to see a version of Twitter on Steem that had a way to post that didn't show up on your feed, but had it's own separate feed.
I can't wait until the value of this platform and blockchain is fully realized. As you most other top 50 and even top 20 cryptos are nothing, but promises of future earnings in the next bull run with no real tangible value or uses currently.
I honestly think that is one thing we need to do more of as a community is to reach out to app developers on other blockchains to figure out what it would take to get them on this platform. I have a feeling once a few are converted to this blockchain successfully it won't be a hard sell for the rest with the community on this platform.
This is possible but it is going to depend on interface filtering. If people only look at an unfiltered view (steemit.com at the moment) everything is seen. But for example, steemhunt filters out everything but Steemhunt.
Perhaps they pay for the development through the speculation, like steemit inc does. that eventually ends.
I have been following Facebook earnings for the last couple of quarters and despite being at records per active users, I measured then to be less that what Steem distributed oer active user. While there are many factors to consider in being able to compare apples to apples here, it shows how the attention economy has value when fostered correctly!
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The Wright brothers were lunatics right up until they suddenly weren't.
Lol. I'd say this holds true for most "mad scientists" types.
STEEM is doing more than any other coin I know of. So many dapps and daily users. I’m hopeful for its future, though also mindful of the wisdom of liquidity in uncertain times.
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I don't put any value in the price of things (unless selling/buying) at the moment. There is too much volatility and manipulation to think about it. What I do see however is a lot of activity going on here in comparison so, I am hopeful.
I don’t mean price when I mention liquidity. I mean unexpected events. But I also am incredibly encouraged by the currents I’ve seen developing here.
Nice post, Taraz. I have a question for you... You and many other Steemians talk about waiting for a price past the historic ATH of Steem before selling, which is certainly admirable and I hope you are correct in stating that we will get there someday. I wonder though, with a network like Steem that brings crypto into the hands of so many users without requiring crazy tech knowledge or mining or any of that, how does the price grow with our massive sell pressure? Not to mention the big players/traders who are ready to sell when we get back to $1, even 75c. Our currency is so accessible with so many waiting on the edge of their seat to liquidate, I wonder how even a big buy-in from a big player would boost the price past $8, at least for very long.
Um. There are a couple of things that I see as a potential benefit. There is about 20% of the supply on exchanges now but there is 65% powered up and 15% liquid in wallets. (Steemit Inc is going to make things potentially interesting)
So anyway, 20% on exchanges. Price pumps... there is a 13 week powerdown so it is almost impossible for someone to liquidate unless they keep 100% liquid.
Then there is the other side of the game. My vote is something like 65c cents (if 100% voting power). if Steem got to 10 dollars as an example, my vote would be around 30 dollars 10x a day. If I sell, I lose that ability to vote. Depending on the way the market goes, there will be people selling early and will miss their buy back. I don't plan on that being me as there is a long way to go in the future here and 300 dollars vote value a day works out to ~110k a year. so at 10 dollar Steem I could liquidate for 370,000 or perhaps have a recurring earning of up to (being an ass) 30% a year.
The more people who sell low, te higher the distribution, the less volatile it becomes as not as many are going to be dumping hundreds of thousands at a time and, there will be many, many more users so percentage wise, it will have less impact.
Then there is the potential with Resource credits that are only created from powered up Steem but could become a pool that could be earned upon in the future. Sell and lose access to RC sales as RCs disappear as soon as the steem is powered don. The more people who powerdown, the higher the price of RCs as they become scarce.
There are many options to come, it is early days in a burgeoning industry.
Thanks much for writing this, this all makes good sense. I’m not worried, and definitely not an economist. Your explanations + examples are much appreciated!
NB: Steem isn't destroyed when it's spent.
Somebody new gets it.
Keynesians talk about the velocity of the money supply; the more people getting it, spending it, using it, asking vendors if they accept it; the bigger the ecosystem grows and the stronger the network effect.
Inhale, exhale.
You need both.
Thanks for the reply m8! What you say is true. Also, STEEM is always minted and distributed to users in this way. So if both these things are true, does scarcity only come from users locking it up in SP? Is this what holds the price at a given value? As I said above, I am not an economist and don’t pretend to know anything about the way money works :)
That's right. Ultimately scarcity comes from the inflation rate, which reduces annually.
Locking it up in SP only delays spending it, so it makes liquid Steem more scarce, but not Steem overall.
Its easy to assume this whole thing is some sort of ponzi scheme, which would be true if the business model was for new people to buy in with fiat so old players could cash out.
That's not actually the case. Its not the new dollars coming in that we're speculating on, it's the eyeballs.
Imagine the power to control what people see on Facebook. People would pay good money for that.
SP doesn't just let you distribute the new Steem, it also lets you prioritise your preferred posts and comments; encouraging more of them and making sure they're seen.
Imagine Imagine Dragons are planning an Australian concert tour. They post on chain and ask which cities to include. Suddenly half the country wants to buy a beer for the guy who can drive their comment to the top of the comment section. The Brisbane tourism commission are offering a holiday for the biggest upvote to get their comment to the top.
Its the power to influence the conversation. In the attention economy its the power to shape opinion and its hard to overstate how lucrative that will be as we add more users.
A great part of it formed into words today as I was hiking through a mountain path and making my way in deep snow covering a small river - It always feel like good work now, doing what I love. Because there will be some appreciation of it here on Steem.
If I like it and I want to share it, then it's already a job worth doing. What's the real pay for it? Energy. One of the best coins ever ;) Fueled by Steem? Also, yes.
Have you ever wondered how many people go out into the world and do things just to have something to post? Some people do these things anyway but I do think there are quite a few who have changed their activities somewhat due to Steem.
If bitcoin was mined using physical energy, the world would have a lot fewer obese people. Actifit is onto something ;)
Good point, again. It's just that I wouldn't post anything I wouldn't normally post. That's why their cause can't help me yet. Maybe come spring I break. Maybe I don't.
Always get inspired through your piece, wish I could one day fling words together like yours. I pick one or two things from this write up. We all want money but only few are ready to do what it takes to get it right. Consistency, commitment and never to give up even when things seem not to be working just like the situation of things now on steemit, activities are down unlike before when the price was higher.
Ever met anyone who didn't want more money? I have met a few. They are very wealthy and the money comes regardless due to the way they have built their businesses and because they love to work.
I think no matter what one wants, if it is valuable it requires consistency and time to get. Skill development can take a lifetime, which is why there are so few skilled in some areas. Lots of good gamers though.
do you believe in circumstances and coincidence? Many had been blessed due to their efforts and commitment to what they do which met with opportunities.
A lot of life is down to luck but, luck still requires the necessary resources to be of benefit. No point meeting the right person or platform when one isn't able to take the opportunity due to a lack of skill.
You are absolutely right, without the basic skills the opportunity one met on his way won't be meaningful. That's why we have to keep our head above the water always, doing what is right even if we have to spend many sleepless nights just to be equipped with necessary skills in our area of specialisation .
You are really inspiring me ... Just reached 235 steems but willing to reach at least 10k this year
Good luck, it would be great if there were more willing to do the same :)
Thanks again for the inspiration ...
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STOPTo support your work, I also upvoted your post!