Will steem be able to survive this sudden disgusting dump?

in #steem6 years ago

View this answer on Musing.io

I don't see how this is a sudden dump, it's actually pretty predictable. But it depends on your own experience and knowledge as an investor and trader, don't blame the market for it. Because we have been forming a wedge for a long time, it was clear we had to break out from the wedge to the upside or downside around this period. However, most people wrongly called crypto's to breakout to the upside because they are delusional permabulls who care more about their own opinion and emotions than reality. It's better to look at the facts than opinions. Hindsight, there where a few important signs we had to breakdown.

First you can make the analog with the crypto market in 2014. This bear market is almost playing out in the same way like it did back then. A boom-bust cycle usually goes through certain stages. After waiting so long we have now finally reached maximum despair stage. When the last people are throwing in the towel, you know the bottom is near.

Besides that, elliott waves and fibonacci could have helped you predict this downturn. When you only use fundamental analysis it was maybe hard to predict this downturn because there is no way to value cryptocurrency. You can't calculate the real intrinsic value. We al know crypto have been oversold for a long time but that doesn't mean anything because these markets are very sentimental. Something that's oversold can go down even more. It's hard to predict sentiment with something like fundamental analysis which is meant to be rational.

Steem is one of the coins who will probably survive the bear market. Steem is not a scam altcoin or something like that, it's pretty legit. Because they try to solve some real world issues, steem has a very active community and a lot of development is being done. I don't see steem go anywhere is the short term. Long term i'm a bit concerned about their business model because i don't know if it's sustainable. Steemit is paying out users from a reward pool which they finance by issuing more coins. Therefore there is a 8% inflation per year. I don't think this is sustainable in the long term so they need to find a better solution. It's not a healthy situation when you pay out users by diluting everyone on the platform.

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Good analysis, Niel.

The alternative to inflation would probably be to ask folks to give up their own STEEM to upvote. That's already been proven to not work. People will hoard and hodl before they'll give any up, generally speaking.

However, rather than a percentage, a static number would be preferable. For instance, set it so that 10,000 STEEM is paid per day, forever. This would cause the percentage to drop over time and should result in the increase in value growing stronger. Sure, folks would get less STEEM per post as the competition increases, but the value per STEEM should increase as well.

Side note: We upvoted this one, but cannot promote it since it promotes another website. Keep up the good work.

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