STEEM CAN DROP BACK TO 0.0001 BTC IN THE FOLLOWING MONTHS - HERE'S WHY
I WAS RIGHT. STEEM/BTC DIPPED AGAIN...
About 5 days ago I wrote my previous technical analysis of STEEM/BTC and called for a sell-off. You can find my post HERE. It turned out that I was right and the price has been dipping since then. Yesterday when the price bounced off the long-term daily trend line, many were getting bullish again which was the main reason behind the bounce but smart analysts are always skeptic when everyone starts buying something so they pay more attention to the market and what they often follow is known as the log-scale of the chart.
STEEM/BTC - THE LOG-SCALE DAILY CHART
As you can see above, it is quite clear that we're most likely heading down towards the lows at approximately 0.0001 BTC per STEEM. Very few people look at this chart. Most traders look at the normal daily chart but smart traders look at the log-scale, because the log-scale tends to give us a more accurate representation of price actions by filtering out some of the confusing hypes or pumps and dumps. The normal chart as it can be seen below appears to be confirming that the log-scale is more accurate and in my opinion, if the price closes below 0.0004 BTC for a day or two, the sell-off can accelerate towards the major support line at just above 0.0003 BTC.
BITCOIN COULD BREAK OUT TO NEW HIGHS
Having said that, Bitcoin appears to have remained bullish and so the price STEEM may not come down that much against USD or SBD depending on how high Bitcoin will go. But it's too risky for someone like me to buy Bitcoin at these prices so I would definitely not recommend buying into Bitcoin's potential rally. Not to mention that Bitcoin could also dip again and drag all the cryptos down with itself in which case it would create a great buy opportunity when STEEM's price comes down to the 20-40 cents area again.
MR. OPINIONATED!
Please be advised that trading cryptocurrencies comes with a high risk and any opinions, research or other information contained in my posts is provided as a general market commentary and opinion only, and does not in any shape or form constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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I think with 8/1 coming up BTC will get unloaded by scared people, BTC will dive for a short while, will recover and start to climb and people will buy up like crazy and it will sky rocket.
I hope you are predicting right.
It just makes the most logical sense, that people will act loyal and hold, then bail early in secret and see what happens in fear.
I was thinking the opposite actually.... I think steem is being bearish and BTC bullish because people are wanting to cash in on the split where they will get BCC and probably BTCU just for holding BTC at the time. I'm thinking that after the 1st bitcoin will dip again and steem will rise again.
Maybe being around STEEMIT too long makes us lose sight of where we are in the big picture. We recently crossed 250k users and the word is spreading quickly on other social media platforms. There is no doubt the number of users will soon explode upwards bringing with it a ton of new investment money. Not saying you are wrong that it is POSSIBLE it may fade down a bit more, especially with a strong BTC rally, but overall I say STEEM is still massively undervalued here and on its way to $10 by the end of the year. But I do appreciate your analysis and alternative point of view! thanks
Steemit is running out of STEEM to delegate to new users so new users sooner or later are going to have to pay for their own accounts which will stop the sudden increase in the number of new accounts not to mention that many of the new accounts are being created by spammers. The other day, we found a voting trail that was upvoting nonsensical comments and posts with ~3500 accounts. I would like to see steemit spending the money on development rather than buying new users which has essentially led to abusive behaviors and is only going to get worse if they continue on with the current system. But as far as I know, they are running out of STEEM for new users so sooner or later, they're going to stop offering free accounts. It's not always about numbers or quantity, sometimes it's about quality and organic growth and that's true specifically with STEEM.
I was trying to tell a manager at my company today about STEEMIT and he could NOT believe there was no advertising. He was asking how they can afford it and add value without ads? I wonder what the plan is for long term? People won't pay for something if they don't have to. They MIGHT tolerate some ads as proven by FB and YT. Thanks
Technically speaking we do have room for ads here. It's called promoting your post. It acts like deflation as well as the system destroys the money that is spent on promoting a post. But currently, the promoted posts appear under a tab called the "Promoted" tab which almost nobody checks. I know I don't but I also hardly ever check the other tabs. They can definitely change this in the future if need be and cause the promotion feature to become more advertiser-friendly in order to support the platform. Another way of advertising here is of course through buying upvotes or STEEM and powering up which is fairly expensive even now; but basically if the platform becomes popular enough, then the only guaranteed way to get attention here will be to buy STEEM and power up which will create a huge demand for STEEM and will push the price of STEEM up but I don't think this platform is going kick off like this. New users need a lot of reasons to ditch the other platforms and many are simply skeptic and/or too "dumb" per se to learn about a new platform, especially one that is still under development and deals with a huge amount of cryptography.
Nah thats possibly not possible ;
Okay mate but I wish you had provided some reasons at least...
Mh... This app sometimes cuts my comments. I always close with 'J'. Sorry
Thanks for your analysis. Always interesting to read and actually the reason i started following you ladt week.
Yep. The first sentence i wrote was me trying to be funny. What I think about it? Right now im a bit concerned about bitcoin. You read many strange things. Bitcoins stolen. Abuses. Thats not the initial thouht of bitcoin. Right now cryptocurreny has not become mainstream. Tough its getting more popular not many people of our population are aware of it, even less understand the idea behind it.
As its becoming more popular i see great potential in alts or systems like steemit. They can get big as well and they could already learn from the mistakes of bitcoin. Therefore i think that steemit could also profit from this hype and get lots of popularity/users. Which will also upvote the price.
Just my thoughts. J
It seems like ppl are trading in their other cryptos and buying bitcoin maybe to try and get their free BCC, the price of bitcoin is up right now whilst most other crypto's are down.
Yeah that could be the fundamental reason behind Bitcoin's rally and altcoin's selloff but I'd rather just look at the chart and try to read it because like they say, charts don't lie! :P
Great analysis Markus. I always enjoy reading about your "opinions" :)
Thanks Kate :]
Altcoins are being dumped to take advantage of this 'free cash' BCC. When 1st August hits people may just dump BCC and convert it to fiat or start investing into altcoins as they have dropped down to such low prices at the moment.
That could very well be the case but I'd rather avoid the rumors and possible reasons behind price actions and just stick to the chart and try to read the data and come up with predictions :]
I believe people are selling altcoins to buy BTC - hence the rise in BTC. However it could possibly be that they will dump BTC after Aug 1 to buy BitcoinCash. Therefore, we could see BTC tumble after Aug 1.
On the other hand, people could be buying BTC to support the original coin. If everyone holds after Aug 1 - then the price will only continue to rise. I hope this later scenario will be the case.
In my view, techinical analysis is indicative but the behaviour of people is fundamental. :) Hoping it is not too much of a roller ocaster ride - hang on everyone.
BitcoinCash Futures are now being traded on Via BTC and HitBTC.
People are unpredictable. Trying to read people's minds is impossible. Not to mention that there are BIG traders behind the markets with BIG money who buy and sell against the majority but because they have BIG money, they are the main movers even though they are very few in numbers. They're usually known as price manipulators. You can't read their mind so it's best to stick with the chart and try to analyze the data without any emotions/bias and come up with predictions :]
Thanks for the analysis. If Steem drops that low I'm definitely going to pick up some more!
No worries. Thanks for reading. Yeah definitely... But like I said, it may not drop against USD or SBD as much. This is only the analysis of the chart against BTC which is the main chart. The price against USD or SBD depends on what's going to happen to Bitcoin after the fork. :]
I guess no one really knows what´s going to happen, as the crypto markets are very highly traded by normal people and not that many professional traders so far. Meaning it´s crazy out there :)
That's true about every market. It's not just the cryptos... The main difference with the cryptos is that there is not as much volume there as opposed to everything else.
Got nothing to add on this as it´s pretty much it :)
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