RE: 09 September 2016 - Honest and explained technical analysis STEEM / BTC / USD by najoh
Did you predict the rise to $4-$5? Did anyone? This is very interesting analysis, but my problem with predicting (what I consider to be unpredictable) markets via analyzing history creates a false sense of confidence and possibly even a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's possible some aspects of human psychology repeats itself when it comes to bear/bull markets, but I'm not convinced this has much "science" to it other than just drawing lines and creating stories that fit those lines.
What if Facebook/Twitter have a major censorship scandal? What if a bunch of major news stations do stories on Steemit and drive demand like we haven't seen yet?
My point is, how can we really know? You may be right and the price may continue to decline as people lose interest in Steemit and it fails to gain new users. On the other hand, all new campaigns could start up to bring in new users who want to purchase influence via buying Steem Power.
How can we really know?
Let's all remember that by holding SP you are getting a near 300% stock split this year, so the price would have to fall from $1 to .30 cents and you'd still break even. The more SP you have the more Steem you get for holding. In a few months the price could be back at $2 and SP holders would have tripled money from here. The question we should be asking ourselves in two years from now where will the value of Steem be? If it catches mainstream at people will have 20-50x returns much like Bitcoin did and Ethereum. Steem still is in very early stages so let's see what's going to happen.
The price falls much faster than the interest of SP at the moment. So for now it's better to wait.
The thing to look at is the market cap, if it's going down then it's better to wait for a more favorable moment to invest.
True but nobody knows where 'bottom' is. You can wait for an uptrend to develop while I we be constantly adding more and more Steem Power, collecting more and more of Steem tokens. We could trade sideways for a while and SP holders will gain. Price has to fall a lot more to be negative returns in 2 years.
Steem still in Beta. 3 months is nothing. Go look at Ethereum price pump and dump last August after the tokens hit the exchanges (fell by 4 times), only by Jan. the price went parabolic less than a year later. Steem is probably going to do something similar.
It's all explained in the post, if a bullish reversal happens you can see it right away.
You can't predict to where exactly it's going but you can predict in which direction is going, so go long when it's going up and go short when it's going down.
Yes I could predict the parabolic move, and anyone could. You can't predict where is the top, but you can see that a parabolic move is happening. And with every parabolic move comes a sharp down movement in which we are still are.
I read that as, "If something happens..." (meaning it's now in the past) "...I'll be able to explain it with my charts." Since it can literally go any direction, there's always some explanation or some line drawing or hourly, vs. daily vs. whatever that would "make sense" of it, right?
For me, it's not "predicting" the direction it's going as much as it's looking at the past activity and saying, "Yep, it's going down and it's doing so at this velocity." That lends itself to the idea of "Even those who are committed to this thing are selling at this velocity in hopes of buying up even more later at a cheaper price." Same thing could be said the other direction. Even those who could care less will buy when the velocity up is high enough that they can get out before the last sucker does.
But to me that's just looking at the past. That's not a prediction as much as it's stating the obvious. People were talking all kinds of "flag pattern" this and that when STEEM hit its highs and didn't crash back down right away. Now that a little more time has passed, and we have more data in the past to look at "predictions" via charts seem more "accurate" but to me they aren't predictions as much as they are reading of historical data and making educated guesses as to whether the trends will continue given the velocity of the trend and other factors such as user adoption, publicity, etc.
I'm not saying these charts aren't useful for tracking trends as they happen or that there aren't patterns which tend to emerge within otherwise chaotic systems (such as the "dead cat bounce"). I do think some are better at intuitively deciding when to get in and out than others and charts seem to be a good story to tell to try and make sense of that intuition. That's my thought, anyway. Just as no one can explain why caused Steem to shoot up to $4-$5 the first time, I doubt anyone could actually predict if it would do that again tomorrow, or next year, or never.
You are thinking too much, it's bad for trading. Once a parabolic moves start no ones knows where it will stop and when, but a parabolic moves always stop and revert back.
Now steem is going down, that's a no brainer here. Some dead cat bounces may occur along the way. Unless some new factor enters in the game (big investor, big news, buying pressure), the price will fall.
And the last parabolic move was easy to see and I predicted when it was going up that the price would go back down. I told my friends to not buy steem and they didn't listen, they bought at 4 USD, and now they are crying that they didn't listen.
By the way if you look at my TK post here, I made 10 000 USD in 6 days on that trade (profit already booked) : https://steemit.com/trading/@najoh/12-august-2016-technical-analysis-nyse-tk
Congrats! If every trader could do that every time, it would be free money all around. :)
That's not possible unless the market only go up forever.