Don't Buy the Bearish Hype -- STEEM is Far From Over!
For investors worried that STEEM's sudden rise is unsustainable, you'll want to stick around for this analysis! Most long-term STEEM price charts are now mathematically deceptive -- unless a proper context is provided, many newcomers and veteran Steemians might get misled by bearish prognosticators and various "chicken littles."
Granted, a conservative approach to finance is usually regarded as the safest pathway. I agree to a point -- risk mitigation is necessary, but the magnitude of the mitigation must be congruent with the risk level. The problem with bearish forecasts on STEEM (and other digital currencies) is that they overlook a critical difference between arithmetic movements and logarithmic movements.
Most Charts Are Arithmetic...and That's a YUUUUGE Problem for Cryptocurrencies!
Take a look at most price charts provided for bitcoin, ethereum, STEEM, or any other cryptocurrency. Almost always, the technical data is arithmetic. This simply means that for every one unit of movement along the vertical y-axis, the asset price moves up by one unit, typically one dollar.
This is the most accurate way to assess blue-chip stocks, which don't typically generate wild swings in market valuation. But what about cryptocurrencies? Just in my extremely short time with STEEM, the up-and-coming cryptocurrency has spiked to nearly four-digit percentiles. Using an arithmetic chart would be highly inappropriate as we would not be able to chart the magnitude of price action.
Magnitude is much more important at this stage of the game for STEEM. Consider an asset that moves from $1 to $2. In an arithmetic scale, this is simply a one dollar movement. It's the same as an asset moving from $99 to $100.
But is it really? A move from $1 to $2 is a 100% skyrocket. A move from $99 to $100 is only a 1% profit. In order to capture the true essence of STEEM, we need to see magnitude. That's why the base-10 logarithmic scale is so valuable to cryptocurrency analysis.
Revealing the TRUE Picture of STEEM!
Let's re-examine the STEEM price chart, this time through a logarithmic scale. Additionally, we're going to analyze trading volume also using a logarithmic scale.
Doing so reveals that rather than a wild swing in valuation, STEEM has been steadily picking up, forgive the pun, steam. Rather than some speculative gamble leveled by some unknown "hand," the rally is measured and, for lack of a better word, responsible.
The dead giveaway is the base-10 logarithmic trading volume. If this was a truly unsustainable valuation swing, the volume would have spiked considerably, and then died down once the price collapsed. Yet from a magnitude perspective, investment sentiment for STEEM has gradually increased since the beginning of this year, even after the collapse from $1.30 down to current levels.
STEEM is the Real Deal
I can't stress this enough -- STEEM is the real deal. Again, the volume magnitude confirms this point. Investors are buying into the cryptocurrency story, dollar by dollar, word by word. Fundamentally, you can see this for yourself.
How many new folks have joined the Steemit community? Popular YouTubers are abandoning the once-vaunted platform en masse. On a personal, anecdotal note, I have received numerous messages from my YouTube subs that have thanked me for crossing over to Steem. That, my friends, is the trading volume that you see steadily rising in magnitude!
Furthermore, I would dismiss the "ponzi scheme" talk as nonsense. Content creators are coming to Steemit because the other platforms are fascists -- that's the plain, ugly truth. People see value in Steemit, and will continue to see value in it, whether the STEEM currency ebbs or flows. Remember -- people have dedicated a good portion of their lives to Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, largely for ZERO monetary rewards!
So is STEEM a scam? Ha! Whether it hits $1,000 or back to 10 cents, the community is generating substantive traffic. But the math is clear -- if you had to gamble on which trajectory is the most accurate, go with the former!
Great analysis. Shared on twitter. Following and looking forward to reading more of your stuff. Stephen
Wow! That's an amazing honor...thank you! And yes, I'll be posting more analyses on cryptocurrencies, as well as useful "human interest" pieces :)
Hey bullish what is a good way to reach u?
You can hit me up via email anytime -- [email protected]
Do you still think Steem is the real deal????
Guess not ;-)@bullishmoney
Hello Everyone.
I recently joined steemed by encouragement of the great Gregory.
I will be posting (at bare minimum) weekly positions of commodities (mostly silver and gold). Please follow and upvote guys, lets take down the banks globalists together.
I will of course follow back.
Cheers guys and thank you for showing me steemit.
Link to my first ever post!
https://steemit.com/trading/@flemming/silver-and-gold-weekly-outlook
I want to share with you my latest technical analysis post -- https://steemit.com/steem/@bullishmoney/why-apple-stock-aapl-is-actually-over-valued-while-steem-is-the-future Essentially, my argument is that Wall Street is doing the retail investor a deliberate disservice by promoting mainstream stocks (such as AAPL) as undervalued, when in fact they are anything but!
If Steemit adds direct uploading capabilities it will quickly put a massive dint into Youtube's earnings. This would be great!
Oh yeaaahhh...that would be so sweet! You know, I spent years on YouTube and I have yet to crack $300 in ad revenue. With Steemit, I'll definitely do that in two months or less!
I bet you'd do it in less!
Yeah, you're right ... I like to give myself some wiggle room, though...lol :)
Steemit could realy disrupt the existing publishing media, imagine an infrastructure handling videos and music on top of it. We aint seen nothing yet.
A most excellent point! Currently, I use YouTube and other platforms to broadcast video and music -- essentially, they are a means to an end. However, once Steemit facilitates these changes -- and you gotta think it's an inevitability -- it's a mic drop, game over, too bad so sad!
try esteem from app store. direct upload. just trying it myself
How is the app working?
You can already directly upload images, but videos is a whole other story.. would certainly be interesting though!
Steem?
Awesome gif...and very appropriate for the cryptocurrency!
That looks like a poor man's KSP
This is a very thought out and easy to comprehend analysis and article explaining STEEM and Steemit. Well Done!
Great to have you here @bullishmoney and on OUR side!
Keep STEEM N ON,
Frank
P.S. "STEEM is the Real Deal" figured "third" time's a charm :)
Oh, and thanks for the resteem! It boosted the earnings significantly! :)
Thank you so much! I've been doing analyses like this for so long that I can pretty much fire 'em out at will. It's just that before, nobody gave a shit. Now, I'm part of an awesome community that embraces this type of work! So glad to have YOU ALL on the same team! :)
Here's my latest analytical post -- https://steemit.com/steem/@bullishmoney/why-apple-stock-aapl-is-actually-over-valued-while-steem-is-the-future I basically support the STEEM currency by poo-pooing the idea of Wall Street "undervalued" stocks, such as AAPL. I think you'll find it an interesting read! :)
One of the best analysis I have seen here on Steemit so far - Pretty good job.
Thank you, much appreciated! And there's more to come :)
You might enjoy this analysis -- it's pro STEEM by casting doubt on mainstream investments https://steemit.com/steem/@bullishmoney/why-apple-stock-aapl-is-actually-over-valued-while-steem-is-the-future
It's definitely sustainable
It goes through a pattern of rising 35-40
Dropping 20 going up 40 (cents).
I invested today cause I'm 200% sure steem is steadily making a clime ratio higher than its dip
It'll become exponential growth in a year or so.
Steemit will overtake fb and YouTube. The future is humans constantly on their phones, humans love writing or expressing themselves and they love getting paid to it.
This is essentially the prime time to load up the boat!
Thanks for this post. Love hear people's take on cryptos. I look forward to reading more of your blogs going forwards...
Thank you! I'll be posting more analysis of this type, along with other "human interest" pieces :)
Great! I always need to feed my geeky mind!!!
Then you've definitely comes to the right place! :)
Here's some more arguments in favor of cryptocurrencies by attacking the assumptions most people have towards mainstream stocks -- https://steemit.com/steem/@bullishmoney/why-apple-stock-aapl-is-actually-over-valued-while-steem-is-the-future
Excellent break down. I think I now understand a few more techno jargon words for the exchange.
And spot on with this statement.
Steem will always have value because the community values it and the more we value it the more other will too.
Nice post. Followed.
Thank you very much! I had to get that ponzi scheme argument out there -- ponzis inherently have no value other than the recruitment of others. With Steemit, the value comes from the creative synergy generated by the community. In fact, it's not possible to recruit in the traditional sense of the word. So even on a technicality, Steemit cannot possibly be considered a ponzi scheme.
Here's basically a follow-up to the above article -- https://steemit.com/steem/@bullishmoney/why-apple-stock-aapl-is-actually-over-valued-while-steem-is-the-future This analysis shows that mainstream stocks are actually far inferior to cryptocurrencies, such as STEEM, by a very wide margin.
This statement right here is gold! True words.
Thank you, I appreciate it!
And notable thing is we recovered over 50% of the peak in terms of MVESTS (Steem Power) value. I remember the peak was around $700 for 1 MVESTS at last July, and now it is about $400.
Very good point...thank you for mentioning that!