Brady, Rivers, Rodgers, and Luck (names you can trust)
That's who my money is on this afternoon.
Note: I don't suggest sports gambling and I barely condone it of myself
The way it works, the way a market in general works, is that it's efficiently priced.
If there was some obvious reason to believe betting Team A over Team B was smart, other people can see the same thing you're looking at, and someone somewhere with deep enough pockets would already be betting it and correcting the price, if indeed it was so obvious.
Markets that are really small and illiquid can be exploited, but when it's large and global.. the line is almost guaranteed to be reasonable and hard to beat.
Not impossible to beat, but you can't just look at it and be like "oh, Los Angeles is better than that, they're a good bet". You'd need to have some kind of deeply focused method, like what Haralabos Voulgaris used to do with NBA games.
Or, you'd need simple inside information. (Like that Belichick is trying to lose Super Bowl LII, zing, or smaller things like someone was out drinking last night, etc.)
So then me and my betting
It's totally possible that I just like it and am being a degen.
In any case, I have a little "bankroll" that I allow of myself which is all just profits from betting last year. So I don't really care too much either way and will just run it and whatever happens is fine.
The great David Sklansky says the key to sports betting is to put yourself in the athletes' heads.
That's basically how I do it. It isn't like I look at the line and technically try to decide. It's just when I intuitively feel something, I bet it, and wouldn't be able to explain why.
So while market efficiency and the caveats from the top of the post are still in play, I feel like there's at least a chance to intuitively have a soul-read on certain storylines within the NFL.
Whereas if you're one of those junkies who bets every game and every week for the sake of doing it, you're guaranteed to not be doing anything special and just coughing up money to the house rake.
I'm up solidly on the year so of course I feel strong about it and like I really can intuit outcomes.
So it's fun for now.. but no, I don't recommend it.
But in any case, ya, I have the moneyline on Patriots, Chargers, and Colts (all really hard favorites), and a combination of moneyline and points on Packers.
The top 3 are hard enough favorites where I'm close to "all in" on my roll with it, but it would be really hard to lose them all.
Good luck to all the players today, in real football and in fantasy etc.
lol literally bet on Rodgers right before I saw this post. I agree it is intuition. Side-note, Jimmy 'The Greek' Snyder is from down the road from me (same hometown as Dean Martin), if you've never seen his ESPN 30 For 30, check it out! He basically put sports gambling into the mainstream.
Haha that's sick, I haven't, I haven't even heard of him I don't think, I should look him up
And niiice on Rodgers.. funny game, like hard not to love Rodgers with his back against the wall and coming off a couple losses. Big game for Minnesota too tho and at home, so it doesn't feel like a lock or anything to me, as much as it could have been with different scheduling.
I bet half moneyline and half with the points (but I spread between like +3 and +3.5 and +1.5 and +4.5, all at their respective odds)
I have the Pack alternate line +9.5 with a hockey parlay. NFL lines are always too risky for me, I'm more of a college hoops guy but I think Rodgers will keep it close tonight and maybe even win this one.
Haha, I like that, seems like it'll be close and like GB won't be blown out.. like maybe Cousins will decide he's due to win a big game but doesn't seem like GB won't show up
Makings of a shoot out right now. Lol grabbed the Coyotes +6 in the 3rd period down 6-0 today. GB secondary looking sort of shaky, going to need a good pass rush tonight. I will add that if I win out I could be the most improbable playoff team in fantasy history. lol
Hahaha!
First: nice win man! +9.5 was the way to go lol, I wish I thought to do that. What'd it pay, like 1.1ish odds or so?
And ya, your team has been really unlucky.. performs well but unlucky with matchups, you should have a much better record.. but then fortunately you're still only a game out.
I believe you play Crazy Eyes in one of the remaining games so that will probably be a huge matchup!!
Thanks brother, with a loss of Pink Socks in one of the remaining 2 games I control my own destiny, hoping playing a man down against him doesn't come back to haunt me since I didn't know how to sub yet lol.
It paid like 1.3 to 1. - Second time in a week I bet a team down 6 goals in the 3rd period lmao. Yea, GB really has been a let down this year, that team is going to get a complete overhaul in the offseason I believe. Matthews will be gone almost certainly, wouldn't be surprised if the head coach is fired too. He cost them a few times last night with game management and just not being prepared. I was sweating that last drive pretty hard, I'm like "KICK THE FIELD GOAL." hahahahahaha
the +250 and -110 system (I think it's called "American odds") is so weird to me.. like I can think it thru and then convert it to decimal odds in my head, but it's so not intuitive to me lol
hahah ya I bet you were!! I was sweating it like yesss touchdo… nooooooooo overthrown :p
1.3... you mean on your Coyotes bet?
there are so many different lingos and ways of saying the odds lol. I always view it in decimal odds where like "1.22" would mean it pays 22 cents on the dollar. but everyone has their different ways and it's confusing
maybe you're saying GB paid 30 cents on the dollar? which would be sick and higher than I was guessing. But I think you mean Coyotes paid 1.30 on the dollar hehe.
Show of hands if you're the worst and have lost a lot of valuable amount--not neccesarily much, but valuable--of money on sports betting!
☝☝☝✋✋
me me me me pick me pick me.
Besta luck and hope it all went well!
NooOOoooOooOOOooooooooooo brother noooOOOooooOOoo
Fuqqin sports betting
Yesterday it went well.. finished up a little bit by winning the 3 favorites
Lost on Rodgers 🐰😼 kind of annoying that I woulda covered most of the point spread side if he didn't overthrow Adams on their last drive lol
Love your Packers pick. I will be on them too.
More times than not, it seems like the picks that makes me the most uncomfortable are the ones that almost win or cover. For example: Cleveland PK, NY +4.5, Buffalo +3, Green Bay +3, and Tennessee +4 makes me very uncomfortable. Let's see how these pan out today. Best of luck on your high risk/high reward sports investments today.
Thanks man!
Cmonnnn Rodgers, go in god mode. Rest next week but this week just god it
Why the heck did they throw on 3rd and 1 and go for a FG? Should have ran to get the first down, then go for a TD, then onside kick. Ugh.
Hmmmm. I def wanted them to go for TD so that they could cover, lol. And in real football.. ya.. I mean I know the announcers would hate it and be like "you need a touchdown and a field goal either way, Todd, I don't understand why you'd go for it here", but if you can get the touchdown now it becomes a lot easier, I may have even gone for it on 4th. i dunno. Either way McCarthy isn't very good imo.
There was also a 4th and 4 or something, on a better part of the field that seemed way better to go for, to me anyways, than the 4th and inches that he went for. (Especially because you have Rodgers.. and not a pounding RB)
Lots of borderline decisions but whenever I watch the Packers I just get a sense of McCarthy isn't very comfortable with those calls.
I don't like when coaches play it safe when their team is trailing. This is when they should take chances and go for it all. I read a couple of story that McCarthy might be the next coach to be fired. Do you think it's more fact than fiction?
I feel a sense of like that's the attitude now. If the season ended right now I'd guess he probably would be.
But if they roll off a bunch of wins and make the playoffs, or even come close and seem good again.. it could be different.
If they don't rev up and stay mediocre I think fired.
Packers have been pretty unlucky, even on top of McCarthy's errors. So it's like he does seem legitimately making bad calls, but also it's unlucky in the sense of like.. usually it just doesn't come up where there are that many spots that are like "oh McCarthy screwed us"
It's almost like he just needs to learn strategy better. Like if he's good at other parts of being a coach, you could just teach him. But I dunno, I feel like they don't do that, they just hire and fire lol. So I predict he takes the fall if they don't turn it on pretty hard.
Good luck you degen. I'm rolling with Bortles and ughh... Andy Dalton. Scary but hopefully with prevail!
Ty ty 🤓 You as well
Doesn't get much more degen than that 😆😆
My god man.. Andy Dalton has to be the most unpredictable QB. You've got 1 down! Now see if your last 3 can hold up. I'm a Cards fan and division games are always tough even when the team blows! See if Rivers and Melvin Gordon can make some magic happen!
Yaaaaa, 1 down, LAC looking fine, and basically comes down to the Colts now!
Lol damn. Ya I haven't seen to much about the game yet but I'll go check it out, I just know they got kinda rekt by Cleveland
Sorry that Rodgers couldn't deliver! Yeah not much to see haha besides Baker lighting up the Bengals Defence.
He's no Tom Brady. Lol jk. Coach McCarthy donked it around pretty good again.
I want to preface what I say next by stating that I fully support the degen. I have never heard of someone who claimed an edge sports betting by soul reading, but like I said before, I support it 100%.
😂😂😂😂 I love that synopsis of this post so much
Hehe
I used to be heavily involved in sport betting, won a few for myself too. Then I began to lose and lose.... The EPL and MLS were getting unpredictable. (EG Manchester United & Chelsea almost wrecked some lives over here.)
Long story short, my girlfriend told me to stop playing as she didn't like it and my loses were simply the best opportunity to press home her point.
🤔
Sounds deep. But I don't think it would help with soccer.
Hehe
Also regarding the "put yourself in the athletes' heads" thing...
I believe the general idea was something like, all the technical information will be factored into the betting line.
Like if you were buying a stock, their PE ratio and debt and balance sheet and all that is factored into the price. So really it should come down more to intuition, if there was any way to beat the market. There's no way to take a glance at the technicals and then think you've spotted an edge, basically, is I think what Sklansky's point was with this.
But maybe you could have a soul-read that this company is good or has a winning idea or something.
Right, I don't think it would. Lots of players and lots of variance. Kind of like baseball, I never feel like I can intuit a baseball game.
Sometimes with football or basketball there feels like an "energy" to me of like one of the teams is going to win, lol.
But it's the kind of thing that would be easy to rearrange in your mind, like if it happens it's like "yup, knew it" and then if you lose maybe you kind of mis-remember it or don't count it as having felt that way. So I'm careful to not go outside of "fun, recreational" amounts, unless I had some kind of scientifically confirmed idea.
Any time there's a promotion or some kind of thing that gives me an edge, I'd bet more.
lol that's wild thinking of you betting football/soccer and your girlfriend not standing for it 😆
I often don't even tell people when I have bets.. cause like, their experience of me winning or losing money is different than how I feel about it.
I think I know how that feels. I remember someone was played a game with a total pot money of approximately $2k. He had a cash out option of $500 but refused to cash out
Funny thing is the guy got over it quickly. But we didn't. We told everyone we knew that story (just as I'm telling you).
Since then, I stopped telling people when I stake games, especially when I put in a large stake.
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