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RE: Brady, Rivers, Rodgers, and Luck (names you can trust)
I don't suggest sports gambling and I barely condone it of myself
The way it works, the way a market in general works, is that it's efficiently priced.
Hehe
I used to be heavily involved in sport betting, won a few for myself too. Then I began to lose and lose.... The EPL and MLS were getting unpredictable. (EG Manchester United & Chelsea almost wrecked some lives over here.)
Long story short, my girlfriend told me to stop playing as she didn't like it and my loses were simply the best opportunity to press home her point.
The great David Sklansky says the key to sports betting is to put yourself in the athletes' heads.
🤔
Sounds deep. But I don't think it would help with soccer.
Hehe
Also regarding the "put yourself in the athletes' heads" thing...
I believe the general idea was something like, all the technical information will be factored into the betting line.
Like if you were buying a stock, their PE ratio and debt and balance sheet and all that is factored into the price. So really it should come down more to intuition, if there was any way to beat the market. There's no way to take a glance at the technicals and then think you've spotted an edge, basically, is I think what Sklansky's point was with this.
But maybe you could have a soul-read that this company is good or has a winning idea or something.
Right, I don't think it would. Lots of players and lots of variance. Kind of like baseball, I never feel like I can intuit a baseball game.
Sometimes with football or basketball there feels like an "energy" to me of like one of the teams is going to win, lol.
But it's the kind of thing that would be easy to rearrange in your mind, like if it happens it's like "yup, knew it" and then if you lose maybe you kind of mis-remember it or don't count it as having felt that way. So I'm careful to not go outside of "fun, recreational" amounts, unless I had some kind of scientifically confirmed idea.
Any time there's a promotion or some kind of thing that gives me an edge, I'd bet more.
lol that's wild thinking of you betting football/soccer and your girlfriend not standing for it 😆
I often don't even tell people when I have bets.. cause like, their experience of me winning or losing money is different than how I feel about it.
I think I know how that feels. I remember someone was played a game with a total pot money of approximately $2k. He had a cash out option of $500 but refused to cash out
Funny thing is the guy got over it quickly. But we didn't. We told everyone we knew that story (just as I'm telling you).
Since then, I stopped telling people when I stake games, especially when I put in a large stake.