RE: Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!
Hi team-leibniz, I really like the blog, great insight and tons of great math. However, I dont understand your lineup construction if you dont follow your own projections... In the week 2 you gave your projections with the differences from week 1 and graded them in all the positions. Okay thats good. Now, I went in a did a bit of recon to find one of your lineups in a GPP which is so far deviated from your write up here, that it doesnt make sense.
Ok, not all of doesnt make sense, I can see why you played Bortles/A.Robinson in what everyone said is supposed to be a fast pace high scoring game. You picked both PPR favorable backs in the ATL/OAK and JAX/SD games. Ok cool.
twigsta26 0 114.66 QB Blake Bortles RB Danny Woodhead RB C.J. Anderson WR Julio Jones WR Allen Robinson WR Tyrell Williams TE Dwayne Allen FLEX Tevin Coleman DST Buccaneers
Ok so here is where Im confused, why wouldnt you pick the top players that you think will be in the 75% percent vs the long shots in the above lineup ?
Again, Im not criticizing at all, I spent hours reading your blogs and I wanted to do something similar to what you were doing. But dont have enough time and patience yet.... Thanks!
Thank you for your reply! Glad you are digging the statistical approach!
The lineup of mine you studied was one of at least 15 that I played this week. I crafted a lineup optimizer that takes into account salary constraints, salaries, and projected point values. I use this tool to adjust points for players considering many different scenarios. One of these had JAX/SD and ATL/OAK as high scoring teams, the one you mention here. I had several others based on scenarios I played out that altered my predictions based on extreme game results. At this point, it is all an experiment! One, I might add, that didn't quite work well for me this week. I had the majority of my plays on my algorithm guys, but had a bit of bad luck there with injuries and lower scoring combinations.
Look forward to hearing more from you in the weeks to come!