Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!
Week 1 is in the books! Time to fire up the algorithm with some new information!
Granted, we don't have much comparatively to add, but we do have new information on a brand new season! And my algorithm loves new information. I have adjusted the Gamma distributions for every NFL player and have cranked the new expected numbers for Week 2.
First, a few reminders:
- This algorithm uses as its baseline metric performances for a player from 2013 to the last current NFL week. The set of all in game performances in this data set are my priors.
- I use Draft Kings scoring to determine historical fantasy points.
- My algorithm MUST have significant prior information to make projections on a player for any given week. If you do not see a rookie you are looking for on my list, below are historical average rookie performances since 2008 below for your review:
- I use the priors for each player and fit a well known distribution (Gamma Distribution) curve to establish quantiles for that player.
- I use the 75% number as an aggressive estimate for each player.
- I remove outlier points from my data set, and include extra factors, like red zone utilization and targets/touches.
- I account for players that have soft matchups against weak defensive opponents that historically give up more fantasy points per game on a rolling 8 game average.
- And, as always,
THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!
I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment!
The Lineup Optimizer
This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 2 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. The direct link is here, in a shared file through Dropbox. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.
Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values.
For instance, if a player is not starting, set their points to 0. If you believe a player has a better matchup than I predicted, add projected points. I am finding that a historically terrible defense is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6-7 point adjustment in a player's favor.
Play around! Add some points!
This is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.
Time for my model!
This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.
My top QB's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | NYG | 23.4 | 8200 | 28 |
| 2 | -1 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | SF | 22.1 | 7900 | 31 |
| 3 | 0 | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | DEN | 22.0 | 7700 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | LA | 20.6 | 7400 | 20 |
| 5 | 0 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | CIN | 20.3 | 7500 | 14 |
| 6 | +1 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | TEN | 19.9 | 7300 | 25 |
| 7 | +3 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | MIN | 19.5 | 7800 | 2 |
| 8 | +5 | Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | DAL | 19.3 | 7000 | 6 |
| 9 | +10 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | OAK | 19.0 | 6800 | 21 |
| 10 | -1 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | CLE | 18.6 | 6500 | 24 |
| 11 | +11 | Alex Smith | QB | KC | HOU | 18.5 | 6300 | 7 |
| 12 | +4 | Derek Carr | QB | OAK | ATL | 18.3 | 7200 | 16 |
| 13 | +1 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | NE | 18.2 | 5600 | 4 |
| 14 | +10 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | PIT | 18.0 | 6400 | 30 |
| 15 | -3 | Philip Rivers | QB | SD | JAX | 18.0 | 6400 | 27 |
| 16 | -1 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | ARI | 18.0 | 6200 | 1 |
| 17 | +1 | Sam Bradford | QB | PHI | GB | 18.0 | 5600 | 5 |
| 18 | -12 | Eli Manning | QB | NYG | NO | 17.5 | 7600 | 32 |
| 19 | -11 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | SD | 17.2 | 6700 | 11 |
| 20 | +6 | Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | DET | 16.3 | 6000 | 15 |
| 21 | -1 | Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | TB | 16.3 | 6900 | 19 |
| 22 | -1 | Jay Cutler | QB | CHI | PHI | 16.0 | 5700 | 26 |
| 23 | N/A | Josh McCown | QB | CLE | BAL | 15.5 | 5000 | 13 |
| 24 | -13 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | BUF | 15.2 | 6100 | 23 |
| 25 | +3 | Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | CAR | 14.9 | 5000 | 3 |
| 26 | +1 | Case Keenum | QB | LA | SEA | 13.5 | 5100 | 10 |
| 27 | -10 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | NYJ | 12.2 | 6300 | 18 |
| 28 | +1 | Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | KC | 12.2 | 6100 | 12 |
| 29 | +2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | NE | MIA | 4.8 | 5900 | 29 |
My top RB's:
I know Jamaal Charles is probably not playing again. I left him here though to demonstrate his significance to the Chiefs if he was to play. Spencer Ware is most likely getting a lot of these points.
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 | Matt Forte | RB | NYJ | BUF | 18.7 | 6600 | 23 |
| 2 | +2 | Jamaal Charles | RB | KC | HOU | 18.2 | 6300 | 7 |
| 3 | +16 | DeAngelo Williams | RB | PIT | CIN | 16.9 | 7100 | 14 |
| 4 | -3 | Arian Foster | RB | MIA | NE | 16.7 | 6000 | 4 |
| 5 | +13 | DeMarco Murray | RB | TEN | DET | 15.2 | 5700 | 15 |
| 6 | +3 | LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | NYJ | 15.0 | 6500 | 18 |
| 7 | +8 | Danny Woodhead | RB | SD | JAX | 14.7 | 5200 | 27 |
| 8 | -5 | Adrian Peterson | RB | MIN | GB | 14.2 | 7000 | 5 |
| 9 | +2 | David Johnson | RB | ARI | TB | 14.1 | 7600 | 19 |
| 10 | +3 | Eddie Lacy | RB | GB | MIN | 13.4 | 6000 | 2 |
| 11 | -3 | Todd Gurley | RB | LA | SEA | 12.9 | 7500 | 10 |
| 12 | +10 | Doug Martin | RB | TB | ARI | 11.9 | 5900 | 1 |
| 13 | -7 | Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | OAK | 11.9 | 6100 | 21 |
| 14 | -4 | Lamar Miller | RB | HOU | KC | 11.6 | 7200 | 12 |
| 15 | +5 | Latavius Murray | RB | OAK | ATL | 11.2 | 5700 | 16 |
| 16 | +29 | Ryan Mathews | RB | PHI | CHI | 11.0 | 5800 | 22 |
| 17 | -3 | Frank Gore | RB | IND | DEN | 10.6 | 5000 | 8 |
| 18 | -11 | Mark Ingram | RB | NO | NYG | 10.4 | 6200 | 28 |
| 19 | +4 | Thomas Rawls | RB | SEA | LA | 10.4 | 5500 | 20 |
| 20 | -15 | Rashad Jennings | RB | NYG | NO | 9.8 | 5600 | 32 |
| 21 | 0 | Isaiah Crowell | RB | CLE | BAL | 9.7 | 4400 | 13 |
| 22 | +6 | Darren Sproles | RB | PHI | CHI | 9.6 | 3800 | 22 |
| 23 | +2 | Jeremy Hill | RB | CIN | PIT | 9.2 | 4300 | 30 |
| 24 | +14 | CJ Anderson | RB | DEN | IND | 9.1 | 6800 | 9 |
| 25 | -1 | TJ Yeldon | RB | JAX | SD | 9.0 | 4700 | 11 |
| 26 | +29 | Carlos Hyde | RB | SF | CAR | 8.9 | 5100 | 3 |
| 27 | -10 | Alfred Morris | RB | DAL | WAS | 8.7 | 3600 | 17 |
| 28 | +2 | Shane Vereen | RB | NYG | NO | 8.6 | 3800 | 32 |
| 29 | N/A | Justin Forsett | RB | BAL | CLE | 8.6 | 4400 | 24 |
| 30 | +2 | Duke Johnson | RB | CLE | BAL | 8.4 | 4500 | 13 |
| 31 | -4 | Bilal Powell | RB | NYJ | BUF | 8.2 | 4000 | 23 |
| 32 | +1 | Javorius Allen | RB | BAL | CLE | 8.1 | 3100 | 24 |
| 33 | +13 | Spencer Ware | RB | KC | HOU | 8.1 | 6100 | 7 |
| 34 | -8 | Charles Sims | RB | TB | ARI | 8.0 | 4400 | 1 |
| 35 | -23 | Tim Hightower | RB | NO | NYG | 7.9 | 3800 | 28 |
| 36 | -5 | Giovani Bernard | RB | CIN | PIT | 7.8 | 4200 | 30 |
| 37 | +2 | Chris Ivory | RB | NYJ | SD | 7.6 | 4100 | 11 |
| 38 | -4 | Jonathan Stewart | RB | CAR | SF | 7.6 | 5400 | 31 |
| 39 | -2 | Theo Riddick | RB | DET | TEN | 7.5 | 4300 | 25 |
| 40 | +8 | Melvin Gordon | RB | SD | JAX | 7.4 | 4800 | 27 |
| 41 | +3 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | MIN | GB | 7.2 | 3700 | 5 |
| 42 | +14 | Terrance West | RB | BAL | CLE | 7.1 | 3300 | 24 |
| 43 | +14 | Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | DAL | 7.0 | 3700 | 6 |
| 44 | +16 | Christine Michael | RB | SEA | LA | 6.9 | 4600 | 20 |
| 45 | +4 | Matt Jones | RB | WAS | DAL | 6.8 | 4500 | 6 |
| 46 | N/A | Reggie Bush | RB | SF | NYJ | 6.6 | 3200 | 18 |
| 47 | -5 | Ameer Abdullah | RB | DET | TEN | 6.5 | 4900 | 25 |
| 48 | N/A | Lance Dunbar | RB | DAL | WAS | 6.5 | 3000 | 17 |
| 49 | -14 | Charcandrick West | RB | KC | HOU | 6.4 | 3500 | 7 |
| 50 | -14 | James Starks | RB | GB | MIN | 6.3 | 4000 | 2 |
| 51 | N/A | Travaris Cadet | RB | NO | NYG | 6.1 | 3000 | 28 |
| 52 | +2 | Tevin Coleman | RB | ATL | OAK | 6.1 | 4500 | 21 |
| 53 | +5 | Jeremy Langford | RB | CHI | PHI | 6.1 | 4600 | 26 |
| 54 | -1 | Shaun Draughn | RB | SF | CAR | 5.8 | 3700 | 3 |
| 55 | -15 | Chris Johnson | RB | ARI | TB | 5.4 | 3700 | 19 |
| 56 | -5 | Benjamin Cunningham | RB | LA | SEA | 5.4 | 3700 | 10 |
| 57 | -10 | James White | RB | NE | MIA | 4.8 | 4000 | 29 |
| 58 | -17 | Alfred Blue | RB | HOU | KC | 4.8 | 3400 | 12 |
| 59 | 0 | LeGarrette Blount | RB | NE | MIA | 4.3 | 4000 | 29 |
| 60 | N/A | Mike Gillislee | RB | BUF | NYJ | 4.1 | 3400 | 18 |
| 61 | N/A | Kenjon Barner | RB | PHI | CHI | 3.9 | 3000 | 22 |
| 62 | N/A | Denard Robinson | RB | JAX | SD | 3.8 | 3100 | 11 |
| 63 | -20 | Andre Ellington | RB | ARI | TB | 3.8 | 3900 | 19 |
| 64 | N/A | Fozzy Whittaker | RB | CAR | SF | 2.1 | 3000 | 31 |
| 65 | N/A | Damien Williams | RB | MIA | NE | 2.1 | 3000 | 4 |
| 66 | N/A | Fitzgerald Toussaint | RB | PIT | CIN | 2.1 | 3500 | 14 |
| 67 | -5 | Jay Ajayi | RB | MIA | NE | 1.4 | 3700 | 4 |
| 68 | -7 | Robert Turbin | RB | IND | DEN | 1.3 | 3000 | 8 |
| 69 | N/A | Brandon Bolden | RB | NE | MIA | 1.0 | 3000 | 29 |
| 70 | N/A | Ka'Deem Carey | RB | CHI | PHI | 0.8 | 3100 | 26 |
| 71 | N/A | Orleans Darkwa | RB | NYG | NO | -0.7 | 3000 | 32 |
My Top WR's:
I predict Antonio Brown is going to be a $10,000 player starting next week. Not exactly a novel prediction, but I think a good one nonetheless. He is going to be getting his touches and touchdowns in a key rivalry game this week.
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | CIN | 22.6 | 9900 | 14 |
| 2 | 0 | Julio Jones | WR | ATL | OAK | 19.4 | 9200 | 21 |
| 3 | +6 | Jordan Matthews | WR | PHI | CHI | 17.0 | 6900 | 22 |
| 4 | 0 | Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | BUF | 17.0 | 7500 | 23 |
| 5 | 0 | Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | MIN | 16.4 | 7500 | 2 |
| 6 | +9 | Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | NYG | 16.3 | 8000 | 28 |
| 7 | +6 | AJ Green | WR | CIN | PIT | 16.2 | 8900 | 30 |
| 8 | -5 | Odell Beckham Jr | WR | NYG | NO | 15.9 | 9500 | 32 |
| 9 | -3 | Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | IND | 15.0 | 6400 | 9 |
| 10 | +1 | Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | LA | 14.8 | 6600 | 20 |
| 11 | -3 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | KC | 14.8 | 8700 | 12 |
| 12 | -2 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | IND | 14.4 | 6000 | 9 |
| 13 | -1 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | ARI | 14.2 | 7200 | 1 |
| 14 | +21 | DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | DAL | 14.1 | 6300 | 6 |
| 15 | -8 | Sammy Watkins | WR | BUF | NYJ | 14.0 | 7300 | 18 |
| 16 | +2 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | HOU | 14.0 | 6300 | 7 |
| 17 | +9 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | PHI | 13.8 | 7700 | 26 |
| 18 | +7 | Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | ATL | 13.6 | 7600 | 16 |
| 19 | +13 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | TB | 13.6 | 6400 | 19 |
| 20 | -1 | Randall Cobb | WR | GB | MIN | 13.5 | 7400 | 2 |
| 21 | +13 | Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | DAL | 12.7 | 4200 | 6 |
| 22 | +1 | Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | WAS | 12.5 | 8400 | 17 |
| 23 | -7 | Eric Decker | WR | NYJ | BUF | 12.5 | 6500 | 23 |
| 24 | 0 | Steve Smith | WR | BAL | CLE | 12.5 | 4300 | 24 |
| 25 | +4 | Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | ATL | 12.3 | 6100 | 16 |
| 26 | N/A | Terrelle Pryor | WR | CLE | BAL | 11.3 | 3500 | 13 |
| 27 | -6 | Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | SD | 11.2 | 7800 | 11 |
| 28 | +12 | Tavon Austin | WR | LA | SEA | 10.6 | 4900 | 10 |
| 29 | +1 | Julian Edelman | WR | NE | MIA | 10.4 | 6200 | 29 |
| 30 | -8 | Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | NE | 10.4 | 6400 | 4 |
| 31 | +23 | Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | GB | 10.4 | 5100 | 5 |
| 32 | +14 | Willie Snead | WR | NO | NYG | 10.4 | 5800 | 28 |
| 33 | -13 | TY Hilton | WR | IND | DEN | 10.0 | 7000 | 8 |
| 34 | +8 | Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | LA | 9.9 | 3500 | 20 |
| 35 | -21 | Golden Tate | WR | DET | TEN | 9.9 | 6800 | 25 |
| 36 | -5 | Terrance Williams | WR | DAL | WAS | 9.8 | 3300 | 17 |
| 37 | +12 | Kenny Britt | WR | LA | SEA | 9.8 | 3700 | 10 |
| 38 | +24 | Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | DAL | 9.6 | 3600 | 6 |
| 39 | -11 | Anquan Boldin | WR | DET | TEN | 9.5 | 4500 | 25 |
| 40 | +4 | Cole Beasley | WR | DAL | WAS | 9.5 | 3200 | 17 |
| 41 | -2 | Markus Wheaton | WR | PIT | CIN | 9.2 | 5000 | 14 |
| 42 | +16 | Mike Wallace | WR | BAL | CLE | 9.2 | 4700 | 24 |
| 43 | +20 | Davante Adams | WR | GB | MIN | 9.0 | 4200 | 2 |
| 44 | -7 | Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | CLE | 9.0 | 3900 | 24 |
| 45 | +6 | Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | ARI | 8.8 | 4000 | 1 |
| 46 | +4 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | CAR | SF | 8.8 | 6500 | 31 |
| 47 | -4 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | LA | 8.8 | 4600 | 20 |
| 48 | +5 | Torrey Smith | WR | SF | CAR | 8.7 | 4700 | 3 |
| 49 | -22 | Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | SD | 8.6 | 5400 | 11 |
| 50 | -17 | Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | TB | 8.6 | 5900 | 19 |
| 51 | +10 | Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | ATL | 8.6 | 3800 | 16 |
| 52 | -5 | Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | BAL | 8.4 | 3100 | 13 |
| 53 | +3 | Brandon LaFell | WR | CIN | PIT | 8.3 | 4000 | 30 |
| 54 | +14 | Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | OAK | 7.9 | 5500 | 21 |
| 55 | 0 | Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | NO | 7.6 | 4300 | 32 |
| 56 | -11 | Robert Woods | WR | BUF | NYJ | 7.6 | 4000 | 18 |
| 57 | +18 | Donte Moncrief | WR | IND | DEN | 7.6 | 6400 | 8 |
| 58 | -17 | Cecil Shorts | WR | HOU | ARI | 7.5 | 3000 | 1 |
| 59 | +13 | Nelson Agholor | WR | PHI | CHI | 7.4 | 3500 | 22 |
| 60 | -8 | Marvin Jones | WR | DET | TEN | 7.3 | 5500 | 25 |
| 61 | -4 | Andre Johnson | WR | TEN | DET | 7.2 | 3400 | 15 |
| 62 | -24 | Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | PHI | CHI | 7.1 | 3300 | 22 |
| 63 | -4 | Travis Benjamin | WR | SD | JAX | 7.1 | 4400 | 27 |
| 64 | +15 | Jaelen Strong | WR | HOU | KC | 6.5 | 3300 | 12 |
| 65 | -17 | Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | SF | 6.5 | 3900 | 31 |
| 66 | -2 | Brandon Coleman | WR | NO | NYG | 6.4 | 3000 | 28 |
| 67 | -1 | Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | PHI | 6.3 | 3500 | 26 |
| 68 | -8 | Devante Parker | WR | MIA | NE | 6.0 | 4800 | 4 |
| 69 | -4 | Dontrelle Inman | WR | SD | JAX | 5.9 | 3600 | 27 |
| 70 | +15 | Paul Richardson | WR | SEA | LA | 5.7 | 3000 | 20 |
| 71 | -35 | John Brown | WR | ARI | TB | 5.7 | 5300 | 19 |
| 72 | +15 | Quincy Enunwa | WR | NYJ | BUF | 5.6 | 4400 | 23 |
| 73 | N/A | Brian Quick | WR | LA | SEA | 5.5 | 3300 | 10 |
| 74 | -5 | Brice Butler | WR | DAL | WAS | 5.4 | 3000 | 17 |
| 75 | N/A | Cordarrelle Patterson | WR | MIN | GB | 5.3 | 3000 | 5 |
| 76 | +13 | Jeremy Kerley | WR | SF | CAR | 5.1 | 3000 | 3 |
| 77 | N/A | Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | GB | 5.0 | 3200 | 5 |
| 78 | +6 | Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | NE | 4.9 | 3400 | 4 |
| 79 | -2 | Kendall Wright | WR | TEN | DET | 4.9 | 3000 | 15 |
| 80 | +15 | Charles Johnson | WR | MIN | GB | 4.9 | 3000 | 5 |
| 81 | N/A | Harry Douglas | WR | TEN | DET | 4.8 | 3100 | 15 |
| 82 | -12 | Devin Funchess | WR | CAR | SF | 4.7 | 4300 | 31 |
| 83 | N/A | Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | PIT | CIN | 4.7 | 3600 | 14 |
| 84 | +2 | Quinton Patton | WR | SF | CAR | 4.6 | 3800 | 3 |
| 85 | +3 | Phillip Dorsett | WR | IND | DEN | 4.5 | 4400 | 8 |
| 86 | N/A | Adam Humphries | WR | TB | ARI | 4.3 | 3100 | 1 |
| 87 | -11 | Albert Wilson | WR | KC | HOU | 4.0 | 3200 | 7 |
| 88 | -14 | JJ Nelson | WR | ARI | TB | 4.0 | 3000 | 19 |
| 89 | -18 | Andre Holmes | WR | OAK | ATL | 3.9 | 3000 | 16 |
| 90 | -23 | Rishard Matthews | WR | TEN | DET | 3.8 | 3300 | 15 |
| 91 | -9 | Marqise Lee | WR | JAX | SD | 3.8 | 3100 | 11 |
| 92 | -11 | Justin Hardy | WR | ATL | OAK | 3.7 | 3000 | 21 |
| 93 | -13 | Corey Brown | WR | CAR | SF | 3.6 | 3000 | 31 |
| 94 | N/A | Jared Abbrederis | WR | GB | MIN | 3.6 | 3000 | 2 |
| 95 | -17 | Danny Amendola | WR | NE | MIA | 3.5 | 3800 | 29 |
| 96 | -4 | Chris Conley | WR | KC | HOU | 3.2 | 3500 | 7 |
| 97 | -14 | Jarius Wright | WR | MIN | GB | 3.1 | 3000 | 5 |
| 98 | N/A | Josh Huff | WR | PHI | CHI | 2.9 | 3000 | 22 |
| 99 | N/A | Greg Salas | WR | BUF | NYJ | 2.7 | 3000 | 18 |
| 100 | -10 | Chris Hogan | WR | NE | MIA | 2.7 | 3500 | 29 |
| 101 | -10 | Dwayne Harris | WR | NYG | NO | 1.7 | 3300 | 32 |
| 102 | -8 | Rashad Greene | WR | JAX | SD | 1.6 | 3100 | 11 |
| 103 | N/A | James Wright | WR | CIN | PIT | 1.5 | 3000 | 30 |
| 104 | N/A | Jordan Norwood | WR | DEN | IND | 1.5 | 3000 | 9 |
| 105 | N/A | Jaron Brown | WR | ARI | TB | 0.8 | 3300 | 19 |
| 106 | -10 | Bennie Fowler | WR | DEN | IND | 0.7 | 3000 | 9 |
| 107 | N/A | Cody Latimer | WR | DEN | IND | 0.5 | 3000 | 9 |
My Top TE's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 | Jordan Reed | TE | WAS | DAL | 14.3 | 6800 | 6 |
| 2 | +2 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | MIA | 14.2 | 6900 | 29 |
| 3 | +3 | Jason Witten | TE | DAL | WAS | 11.9 | 4300 | 17 |
| 4 | +2 | Jimmy Graham | TE | SEA | LA | 10.9 | 3200 | 20 |
| 5 | -1 | Gary Barnidge | TE | CLE | BAL | 10.1 | 4000 | 13 |
| 6 | +1 | Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | SF | 9.8 | 5600 | 31 |
| 7 | +6 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | GB | 9.0 | 3100 | 5 |
| 8 | -6 | Delanie Walker | TE | TEN | DET | 8.6 | 4500 | 15 |
| 9 | -1 | Antonio Gates | TE | SD | JAX | 8.1 | 4500 | 27 |
| 10 | +2 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | HOU | 7.7 | 5000 | 7 |
| 11 | -2 | Julius Thomas | TE | JAX | SD | 7.4 | 4400 | 11 |
| 12 | +4 | Charles Clay | TE | BUF | NYJ | 7.3 | 3300 | 18 |
| 13 | -2 | Coby Fleener | TE | NO | NYG | 6.7 | 3900 | 28 |
| 14 | +4 | Jared Cook | TE | GB | MIN | 6.6 | 3000 | 2 |
| 15 | +4 | Lance Kendricks | TE | LA | SEA | 6.4 | 2900 | 10 |
| 16 | +9 | Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | CLE | 6.4 | 2800 | 24 |
| 17 | -2 | Richard Rodgers | TE | GB | MIN | 6.1 | 2800 | 2 |
| 18 | N/A | Vernon Davis | TE | WAS | DAL | 6.1 | 2600 | 6 |
| 19 | -5 | Eric Ebron | TE | DET | TEN | 6.0 | 3500 | 25 |
| 20 | +19 | Jace Amaro | TE | NYJ | DET | 5.9 | 2500 | 15 |
| 21 | +13 | Luke Willson | TE | SEA | LA | 5.6 | 2700 | 20 |
| 22 | +9 | Clive Walford | TE | OAK | ATL | 5.4 | 2900 | 16 |
| 23 | +12 | Jordan Cameron | TE | MIA | NE | 5.4 | 2800 | 4 |
| 24 | -1 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | TB | ARI | 5.3 | 2900 | 1 |
| 25 | -1 | Crockett Gillmore | TE | BAL | CLE | 5.0 | 2500 | 24 |
| 26 | -16 | Martellus Bennett | TE | NE | MIA | 5.0 | 4400 | 29 |
| 27 | -6 | Zach Miller | TE | CHI | PHI | 5.0 | 3000 | 26 |
| 28 | 0 | Brent Celek | TE | PHI | CHI | 4.9 | 2600 | 22 |
| 29 | -3 | Dwayne Allen | TE | IND | DEN | 4.6 | 3600 | 8 |
| 30 | 0 | Jacob Tamme | TE | ATL | OAK | 4.6 | 2900 | 21 |
| 31 | -14 | Will Tye | TE | NYG | NO | 4.0 | 2900 | 32 |
| 32 | -3 | Vance McDonald | TE | SF | CAR | 4.0 | 3000 | 3 |
| 33 | -13 | Mychal Rivera | TE | OAK | ATL | 3.9 | 2600 | 16 |
| 34 | +9 | Jesse James | TE | PIT | CIN | 3.4 | 3400 | 14 |
| 35 | -14 | Zach Miller | TE | SEA | PHI | 3.3 | 3000 | 26 |
| 36 | +1 | Garrett Celek | TE | SF | CAR | 3.3 | 2600 | 3 |
| 37 | N/A | Jermaine Gresham | TE | ARI | TB | 3.3 | 2500 | 19 |
| 38 | -16 | Larry Donnell | TE | NYG | NO | 3.2 | 2900 | 32 |
| 39 | -1 | Ryan Griffin | TE | HOU | KC | 3.0 | 2500 | 12 |
| 40 | -7 | Darren Fells | TE | ARI | TB | 2.9 | 2600 | 19 |
| 41 | -5 | Jack Doyle | TE | IND | DEN | 2.7 | 2500 | 8 |
| 42 | -2 | Cameron Brate | TE | TB | ARI | 2.6 | 2600 | 1 |
| 43 | -11 | Tyler Kroft | TE | CIN | PIT | 2.5 | 2500 | 30 |
| 44 | N/A | Anthony Fasano | TE | TEN | DET | 2.1 | 2500 | 15 |
| 45 | -4 | Josh Hill | TE | NO | NYG | 2.1 | 2500 | 28 |
| 46 | N/A | Marcedes Lewis | TE | JAX | SD | 1.4 | 2600 | 11 |
| 47 | N/A | David Johnson | TE | SD | TB | 0.9 | 7600 | 19 |
| 48 | N/A | Ed Dickson | TE | CAR | SF | 0.9 | 2500 | 31 |
| 49 | N/A | Niles Paul | TE | WAS | DAL | 0.8 | 2500 | 6 |
| 50 | -8 | Dion Sims | TE | MIA | NE | 0.6 | 2500 | 4 |
| 51 | -7 | Virgil Green | TE | DEN | IND | 0.4 | 2800 | 9 |
| 52 | N/A | Alex Smith | TE | CIN | HOU | 0.2 | 6300 | 7 |
| 53 | N/A | Kellen Davis | TE | NYJ | BUF | -1.3 | 2500 | 23 |
My Top DST's
For these rankings, I use a rolling database of the past eight games and determine the effect a defense has on my projections, on average. The best defenses generally cause my estimates to be underestimates, the worst, overestimates.
When you read the DST rankings below, one sticks out like a sore thumb - my Indianapolis Colts. They climbed 16 spots to be the 9th rated overall. What gives? They gave up 38 points in Week 1, right? Well, there is a lot behind the numbers here, but essentially they are getting rewarded in this system for not allowing all Lions to have the games that were predicted of them.
Furthermore, the defense is in the middle territory of significance. This means my top DST's are in the 75th percentile or higher, the worst defenses in 25th percentile or lower. In between? Total crapshoot.
| Rank | Change | Team | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 | ARI | 0.994 |
| 2 | +1 | MIN | 0.922 |
| 3 | +5 | CAR | 0.880 |
| 4 | +6 | NE | 0.867 |
| 5 | +4 | GB | 0.825 |
| 6 | -2 | DAL | 0.790 |
| 7 | -2 | HOU | 0.749 |
| 8 | -7 | DEN | 0.748 |
| 9 | +16 | IND | 0.713 |
| 10 | -4 | SEA | 0.675 |
| 11 | 0 | SD | 0.624 |
| 12 | -5 | KC | 0.607 |
| 13 | +7 | BAL | 0.586 |
| 14 | -1 | CIN | 0.542 |
| 15 | +4 | DET | 0.525 |
| 16 | +5 | ATL | 0.514 |
| 17 | +1 | WAS | 0.513 |
| 18 | -6 | NYJ | 0.509 |
| 19 | +3 | TB | 0.494 |
| 20 | -6 | LA | 0.473 |
| 21 | -4 | OAK | 0.469 |
| 22 | -6 | CHI | 0.431 |
| 23 | -8 | BUF | 0.266 |
| 24 | +4 | CLE | 0.212 |
| 25 | -1 | TEN | 0.212 |
| 26 | +5 | PHI | 0.159 |
| 27 | +2 | JAX | 0.102 |
| 28 | +2 | NYG | 0.064 |
| 29 | -6 | MIA | 0.062 |
| 30 | -3 | PIT | 0.052 |
| 31 | -5 | SF | 0.047 |
| 32 | 0 | NO | 0.028 |
Image Credit
This is cool. I wish you joined our Fantasy League..
Anyways great to see this analysis. I'll definitely follow to see how well this algorithm works.
BTW long time ago I wanted to find a good way to rank offenses and defenses based on the strength of schedule or strength of opposing defenses and offenses respectively. It seemed to me though that as the season goes by you'll have more information about the strength of previous team matchups.. but it seems like if you updated the data based on previous matchups that would in turn depend on other matchups and you'd get some kind of infinite recursion. I was wondering how you would solve that and use the entire matchups database to rank offenses and defenses? Not sure I'm describing the question the right way, but hopefully you get the gist of what I'm asking. Thanks.
Thanks for the kind words! I saw the fantasy league starting but only declined because I am already in 10 yearly leagues this year. Needed some balance with that and everything I am doing here with DFS analysis.
I totally understand what you are asking with infinite recursion, that would be very tough to model. You wood have to be very careful with how you quantified that information so it came across in a meaningful way. I really like the FiveThirtyEight blog and how they use a chess model (ELO) to calculate strength of teams. I opted for differences in actual versus predicted. Both rely on numbers that are easier to pin down.
Have you ever seen the NFL parity wheel? Pretty cool graph that comes out every year showing exactly the same problem you described:
Wow 10 leagues... no problem. Maybe you can join us next year.
Yeah ELO is interesting for sure. I like that it's simple and just uses points & location.
I've never seen the parity wheel, but yeah it does describe the problem.
Hey I just had an idea. To keep it simple to start just use Avg Points Per Game for offense and Avg Points Per Game allowed for defense. To prevent the infinite recursion we can identify the median 8 teams (25% of the league) on both Offense & Defense from 2015 and give them an average strength rating to start in 2016. Once we fix certain team ratings as average we probably won't have a recursion problem. You can also adjust the initial ratings based on major changes (coaching changes/player acquisition) so that the 8 median teams may not be purely based on 2015. What do you think?
Hi team-leibniz, I really like the blog, great insight and tons of great math. However, I dont understand your lineup construction if you dont follow your own projections... In the week 2 you gave your projections with the differences from week 1 and graded them in all the positions. Okay thats good. Now, I went in a did a bit of recon to find one of your lineups in a GPP which is so far deviated from your write up here, that it doesnt make sense.
Ok, not all of doesnt make sense, I can see why you played Bortles/A.Robinson in what everyone said is supposed to be a fast pace high scoring game. You picked both PPR favorable backs in the ATL/OAK and JAX/SD games. Ok cool.
twigsta26 0 114.66 QB Blake Bortles RB Danny Woodhead RB C.J. Anderson WR Julio Jones WR Allen Robinson WR Tyrell Williams TE Dwayne Allen FLEX Tevin Coleman DST Buccaneers
Ok so here is where Im confused, why wouldnt you pick the top players that you think will be in the 75% percent vs the long shots in the above lineup ?
Again, Im not criticizing at all, I spent hours reading your blogs and I wanted to do something similar to what you were doing. But dont have enough time and patience yet.... Thanks!
Thank you for your reply! Glad you are digging the statistical approach!
The lineup of mine you studied was one of at least 15 that I played this week. I crafted a lineup optimizer that takes into account salary constraints, salaries, and projected point values. I use this tool to adjust points for players considering many different scenarios. One of these had JAX/SD and ATL/OAK as high scoring teams, the one you mention here. I had several others based on scenarios I played out that altered my predictions based on extreme game results. At this point, it is all an experiment! One, I might add, that didn't quite work well for me this week. I had the majority of my plays on my algorithm guys, but had a bit of bad luck there with injuries and lower scoring combinations.
Look forward to hearing more from you in the weeks to come!