What gambler's fallacy is?
Or also known as the MonteCarlo fallacy is an error of what we understand as chance and how we believe that random events go through a process of correcting themselves. Imagine a roulette and the black color has been playing 25 times in a row (an event that occurred one night in 1913 at the MonteCarlo Casino).
With such results most people would think that the next move would be red and this is an error of reasoning as we mistakenly believe that a roulette wheel memorizes previous moves. In luck, future results don't depend on previous.
The probability of winning black in roulette games is 50% but this value is only strictly true for an infinite series of moves and not for a short series and, by the way, the 26th move of that sequence in 1913 came out black again to the disappointment of many players at the Montecarlo Casino.
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Great post, Saludos
Muchas gracias ;)
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