George Baker, chairman of the group known as producers of crude oil for the United States, unveiled the main purpose behind the strategy after ratifying cancellation of the 40-year ban in the US crude oil exports in December 2015. He says: Now, we have created the conditions, the United States finally has the opportunity to realize the full potential of the country as a superpower of energy. In order to achieve this, to dominate the energy market, Trump has put it on the top of his government agenda.
For the early achievement of this strategy, Trump has determined to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as well as launch a war in the Middle East. Now, there is a key question: becoming an energy superpower and dominance on energy global market, how could be relevant to JCPOA and onset of war? The answer should be sought in the energy geography of the United States and other producers as well as consumers of this vital material.
While oil remains the world's first power of energy, the United States only has 48 billion barrels of this vital reserve. When we compare it with 300 billion and 500 million barrels of Venezuela, 266 billion and 500 million barrels of Saudi Arabia, 158 billion barrels of Iranian oil, and 109 billion and 500 million barrels of oil Russia, we find that it is very small in front of them. An estimated 48 billion barrels of oil are believed to account for only 2.2 percent of the world's total oil reserve. It is interesting to know with consumption of 19 million barrels per day, it has put the US in at the top of consumer markets.
Since 2008, with the advent of advanced technology such as Hydraulic Fracturing Technology, the United States has been able to produce and exploit huge shale oil reserves for this country. According to a report by the Norwegian Energy Institute in 2016, the exploitation of shale oil suddenly increased US oil reserves to 264 billion barrels. An increase that continues to rise with new discoveries of shale dry and offshore fields and the current production of the United States has grown to 11 million barrels per day.
The shale drill revolution transformed the global energy market, which, according to Daniel Yergin’s analysis, OPEC has become an old and an unhealthy lion. He says technological advances in recent years have made oil shale production profitable for the United States even at low oil prices, and the OPEC and Russia are well aware of this issue.
The united states withdrawal from JCOPA and the return of Iran's oil sanctions will provide a market for US oil, and the wide-spread war in the region will increase the price of black gold to astronomical figures of $ 200 to $ 300 per barrel. The events that Saudi Arabia and Russia are awaiting it.
The speed of the events in the middle east is so high that there are no worries about the withdrawal of the United States from JCOPA, but there is fear of widespread wars in the region. Analysts say Benjamin Netanyahu's demonstration on Monday, April 30 is a prelude to the outbreak of war. The hasty cessation of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Iran, which sparked astonishment on Tuesday night, May 13, has added to this speculation. More importantly, the early and hasty support of the Gulf states from Morocco's action giving rise to this speculation that they may be cutting off his relations with Iran in the future.
Mohammad Bin Salman's emphasis on the fact that now Palestine is not their top priority, but that the containment of the regional influence of Iran is a priority. Also, Russia's meaningful silence is indicated that the United States is following to launch a regional war between Iran and Israel in the Middle East.
With the outbreak of this war, Iran's oil will be eliminated from the market, and even Saudi Arabia's oil and, of course, the Persian Gulf will fall sharply. In this situation, shale drilling rigs will bring millions of barrels of oil into the market and will create thousands of job positions in the United States. By contrast, with a dramatic rise in oil prices, the Chinese economy that needs up to 12 million barrels per day, will suffer a severe blow. Russia's oil exports will return to pre-oil freezing conditions and will experience the pleasure of selling at astronomical prices. It does not matter what the outcome of this war for the middle east, what's important is that the dream of an energy superpower will bring to the United States.
So the Trump is not crazy, but he is a gambler who will save the US economy with his riskier actions. Because capitalization requires high-risk power. it seems like Trump is such a person.
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