Back May deal or face no deal Brexit.

Well, it is looking as though the chances of a no deal exit from the EU have risen sharply. I still think the Parliamentary majority for a soft Brexit will try to assert itself but there may not be time to do that now. The noises coming from the EU seem to indicate that they are seriously fed up with the UK and probably simply can't face the thought of having to spend more time with Theresa May. (After her late night tantrum/whine yesterday I'm sure a lot of MPs share that feeling).

More seriously the French in particular seem to have concluded that they are better off shot of us one way or the other and the sooner the better. From Macron's perspective this makes perfect sense. So the word is that they will extend the March 29 deadline if and only if May's deal gets through. Otherwise pas de chance as they say.

Given that scenario what will Parliament do? I really don't know. This will have emboldened the ERG but the big question is what will Labour MPs do now? I think the majority will still vote against her deal so it will fail again. If the EU does do what the rumours say (and it would only take one country like France or Spain to do it) that doesn't leave enough time. Hard to see what would happen then apart from all hell breaking loose in terms of internal fights in both parties. The Peoples Vote campaigners would be even more angry and mobilised than they are already but who would they vote for in that scenario?

It's a recipe for some serious political fun and manoeuvre. I think I know how it will work out (pretty much the same as if we had a second referendum or left on a Norway basis actually, but with the anger distributed differently) but the getting there is going to be very interesting.