HF 21 Predictions
So like it or not, this hardfork looks like it's happening. Of course there are last minute WTF things that could happen, but those are doubtful. In all likelyhood in less than a week, we'll be looking at a whole #newsteem.
.gif)
I've done what I can to prepare. Instead of buying 1k Steem, I leased 20k Steem for about the same price for 3 months. We'll see if that turns out to be profitable. Even if it's not, I have more fun on Steem when I feel like I have more influence, so it's money well spent in my book regardless. I spend a lot of time on Steem, and it's one of my main forms of entertainment. I'm okay with spending some money so I can have more fun. But yea, truth be told, between posting and curating, I expect to make that back and then some, we'll see.
Besides that I did also buy a little over 500 Steem and powered it up. I've been buying a decent amount of Steem lately, but it's all gone into tribes. It's been a while since I've powered up Steem because I've been putting my liquid Steem earnings into tribes as well. Now I'm a whale in three different tribes and I'm starting to get interested in Steem again, I've definitely been a fan of 50/50 curation in the tribes, but obviously the scale is different, I'm really curious to see how it plays out on Steem.
The title of the post says predictions, so I'll take some swings.
50/50
The 50/50 split. I think this will be a net positive. It might take a minute, but in the end I think in general people will make more because more people will be interested in curating. What I think would be a huge stimulus to this is better curation tools. One thing the tribes have taught me is I don't have time to curate effectively at all, so wherever I can I offload that work to either a curation trail, or someone who volunteers as @soyrosa has done on creativecoin. This way I can earn while also benefiting the community. By following votes, I can still curate when I have time, but if there are other people who's vote I'm following for each person it's like I've cloned myself and can do that many times as much work.
I think investors much larger than me simply want to passively invest, I think instead of trying to force them to use the platform in a way that's super time consuming and unrealistic for a typical very busy person, we should be working to facilitate this demand, and figuring out creative solutions to allow them to passively invest while also benefiting the community.
The SPS
This is probably the most bullish thing in this HF to me. I think it will be huge for Steem and really be a new beginning for us.
Downvote pool
I think really large stakeholders might start to flag things regularly but beyond that the average users behavior won't change regarding downvotes. The average user wasn't not downvoting because it cost them voting power, the average user isn't downvoting because downvotes cause material harm and it's just not something people are going to ever do casually. People use Steem applications currently primarily for entertainment. They aren't coming here to fight or be the e-popo. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that, but it's the reality IMHO. We'll see if I'm right or wrong.(I'm right 😎 )
Curve changes
Minnows are gonna get rekt and will have a choice to make about what they're going to do moving forward. I think more people will be curating, so people will have the opportunity to do well, but if you're getting by on making a few cents on actifit posts, or something else that doesn't particularly add much value, I think the party is probably over and you'll have to adapt.
Overall I'm not in the doom and gloom camp. I think this will be a net positive for Steem and I'm excited to move forward and have new stuff to figure out. If you remember my quote from a few posts ago, "Be like water" Adapt, be flexible, for my fellow geeks, be like the Borg. Resistance is futile anyway.
See you all in the next post.
id be interested to see how you go with leasing steem. Also do you pay for it upfront and did you go through dlease?
I went through minnowbooster and on my end I pay upfront. Minnowbooster pays the delegator daily with the amount you paid across the time period you paid for distributed evenly to ensure they follow through. I assume if the delegator ends the delegation early you're refunded the remainder.
It took a few days and I had to adjust the sizes of the chunks of delegations, but I eventually got the entire 20k filled.
thanks, oh and agree that it is at lot more fun with steem power :)
Yip, I filled a heap of your leases, I was looking for leases 20% or above to ensure my average APR remains at 20% and yours fit the bill. I hope it serves you well. By the way try out https://dlease.io we are transitioning to that UI and leaving MinnowBooster for post promotion only.
Right now they share the same backend but in future you will be redirected to Dlease so might as well start getting used to it.
Ahh, thanks for filling the leases! :) I thought I’d seen that they were the same thing but wasn’t sure. I’ll head there in the future.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Cool :) enjoy, I should have more SP coming in a few days, I'm filling at 20% + if anyone wants.
ok will have a look next week. i'm not in any rush but i may start with a few k just to see how it all works
Sounds good, I recommend putting up multiple smaller lease requests like say 1000 SP each, they are easier to fill especially of one's VP is low from voting, that effects how much you can delegate, ie if you only have 80% VP you can only delegate 80% of your avail. SP.
Dear @midlet
I'm here because of @thecryptodrive. He mentioned you in his latest publication..
HF21 is definetly a hot topic right now :) Personally I'm not that optimistic on upcoming changes.
Major two things (for common user) that will change is:
a) non-linear reward curve - it will most likely "kill" culture of upvoting comments (time will tell).
b) 50/50 reward split - since PALnet seem to be leading in that direction we can already witness how does it really work. And so far it seem that 50/50 only create extra selling pressure, since curators are more willing to dump their easy earned PAL tokens. Can we expect different behaviour on Steemit? Why would we?
I'm full of hopes that HF21 will make things better, but right now I'm not very optimistic. I strongly believe that when it comes to PRICE steem has still long way to go (down).
Upvote on the way.
Yours, Piotr
Hi @crypto.piotr, the non-linear rewards curve will more than likely suck for comments, but it's there to stop the thousands and thousands of leaks in value we have here on the platform from malicious bad actors as well as regular users spamming or adding endless low value content. I don't think there was a perfect fix that would fix all that without doing any collateral damage. I feel it will be a net positive.
I worry it may be something that's not super visible to the average user though, so we may see an increase in price and it will be hard to say what it's coming from. Also, there's a ton of other contributing factors, so I think it is a good idea, but it's still not clear what the impact will be.
I don't think there's much of a correlation between the 50/50 reward split on PAL and the selling pressure. I think the problems every tribe will face is giving people a reason to hold them. Currently you can earn them to sell them or power them up. There's nothing else you can really do with them. It's not a huge list, but you can lease SP, you can gamble or play games with it, obviously it's still by far the most valuable, it's traded on plenty of exchanges, etc. Tribes are still in their infancy and I'm pretty sure none of them have any money coming in from anything. Give them time.
Like you, we're all hoping for the best, but I'd also urge everyone to prepare for the worst.
That make sense. Thanks for your amazing comment @midlet
I hope we can also find a way to stop steemit from selling so much :)
Yours,
Piotr
Interesting perspective and approach that I appreciated reading! I am looking forward to adjusting but have the same view on Minnows and will be concerned for them. Reading Steemit’s blog yesterday about those who earn less than 20 Steem per post will be impacted lower surprised me to see that threshold as I think very few earn that in one post despite the declines in price. It will be interesting to experience for sure!
Posted using Partiko iOS
I wasn't happy when i first heard about the hardfork and less rewards for users but all of the information since, combined with tribes has changed my perspective a little. I see a lot of good things in the fork and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The main thing for me now is a smooth transition so that we can restart steem and start marketing it positively to the world.
I think that minnows can do well in the tribes which lessens the need to earn STEEM form their posts. I've even noticed how my rewards have dropped as people have split votes between different tokens and tribes. Plus if we do gain more adoption it will become very hard to earn STEEM in the future anyway, more likely to be earning an SMT of some sort. (SMT's not guaranteed.)
This for me is massive as we can finally get work done that has been talked about for the past two years that I have been on STEEM. Onboarding, analytics, better interfaces, communities, general ease of use. All the things that we know are needed but steemit.inc will not get around to building into the chain as they are working on the main code. Things that probably don't even take much time to add to the likes of steemit.com.
Yes I think tribes will be able to help a lot for the little guys, but they'll have to be on top of how to use them.
How do you think it will effect the members of backscratcher under the 10,000sp level. Most votes I see are so low that I wonder if adjustments will be made so they can benefit from curation.
(Just an estimation) I think 5k and above will still do pretty well. Author rewards will go down, but curation rewards will be doubled. At that level, your curation rewards should net you a decent amount. Not so sure below that, we'll have to see.
and how many people there are with more than 5k? and what will they do after hf? earning nothing, vote worth nothing, why would they stay?
Posted using Partiko Android
I think people will still have the opportunity to earn. I think there is a good chance they will have a better chance to earn, but yes smaller accounts will probably have less impact on posts that don’t have much rewards.
Posted using Partiko iOS
so if i want to make best roi i would have to stop voting on small acc. small acc are for sure over 60% of people here. i wonder how many active people will we have in few months. it will be an interesting stat
Posted using Partiko Android
Not necessarily the account size, but on posts with small payouts, those probably won’t be that beneficial in terms of maximizing roi, but it also won’t be nothing, just not the most beneficial. I’m not really sure how extreme it will be, we’ll have to see.
Posted using Partiko iOS
I have some liquid steem to get up to 5000 but I want to hold it aside because I honestly believe the downvotes will be the death of steemit until the next fork. When you combine money and human nature you always get the worst in people. Any short form content meant for tribes will get downvoted by people who believe they are there to police thin content. Facebook, Twitter and Instagram spent a decade training people how to create, share and consume content and it is mostly just pics, vids and short blurbs. I don't know why steemit members insist it has to be long form blogging content to be relevant for peoples followers. It is going to be a real mess in my opinion. That's why I have been keeping my earnings liquid.
Personally I learned early on that that was the culture here and just adapted my content to fit that culture. As I mentioned above, being like water, but I have been vocal about how this is a TERRIBLE idea. I think downvotes should be used to combat abuse only ie plagiarism or flat out no content posts. If someone is creating a legitimate post, long or short, whether you think it's high or low quality, leave them be. If you don't like it, don't upvote it, but yes, I'm totally against the idea of arbitrary, subjective, content police.
it's going to be a blood bath lol.
btw, Are you into @one.life tribe's lifestyle token? I think it is perfect for the trail but nobody seems to notice it. You can post about nearly anything, the coins are scarce with lots of burns and the price has been on an upward trend since it was released last week. I bought a few miners because once they are gone you can only get them on the market. Also, the only airdrops are very limited. I feel good about this one but again, surprised few on the trail have noticed it.
That's actually the opposite thing I look for with the tribes in terms of investment. I think in the long run, tribes with a strong niche will be the ones to survive, except for Pal which was the first mover on being open to everything.
Interesting. I haven't come to the point of view yet. It is my thought that most of the niche tribes won't have enough interest or volume to be sustainable. My favorite tribe is reggae steem with the jahm token. I have had a passion for reggae music for nearly 40 years and it is the tribe where I feel most at home. But, I have a hard time believing that it can find the support it needs while onboarding the general public is so difficult and confusing for non blockchain people.
I think you’re probably right in the short term, but my gamble is if things start to pick up people will be looking for filters to find the content they want. I think more generic stuff will have more people posting on those tribes and using them, but that means more tokens going out at a faster rate and probably on content that won’t draw real organic traffic. That to me signals that more tokens will go out but the value of those tokens will dilute faster. For the tribes that are more strict, they may have less activity now, but if things pick back up and the volume of users increase I think they will hold value better. Really could go either way, but that’s where I’m at.
Posted using Partiko iOS
I renewed my lease for longer than one month with the same idea of it is going to be more profitable :D
Or it will get more expensive afterwards x)
Posted using Partiko Android
Thank you so much for participating in the Partiko Delegation Plan Round 1! We really appreciate your support! As part of the delegation benefits, we just gave you a 3.00% upvote! Together, let’s change the world!
To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.
Brought to you by @tts. If you find it useful please consider upvoting this reply.
Many things I am looking forward to in this new hardfork
Every steemians I guess is ready for the hardfork to take off