Final Oscar 2018 Predictions: ‘The Shape of Water’ Will Win Four of its 13 Nominations

The 2018 Oscars are driven by competing voting bodies, older and whiter American males vs. a younger more diverse and international crowd. Which will dominate the night?
The Oscars this Sunday are driven by several competing narratives; the question is which one will dominate the night. And the preferential ballot — each voter ranks the nine nominees — all comes down to the movies Academy members actually saw and loved the most, and which film aligns with the zeitgeist to deliver the message that voters want to send.

That’s why politics are bound to intrude. Is the old (white male) guard still in control? Or is the younger, more diverse and international membership, brought on in the last two years since #Oscarssowhite — about 20 percent of the Academy’s 7,258 members — steering a more inclusionary course? In other words, many wonder if the “Moonlight” narrative continues. (We are not talking about that crazy PricewaterhouseCoopers snafu — steps have been taken to prevent those mistakes. Onward.)
The Academy actors’ branch nominated four actors of color this year (down from seven in 2017): third-timer Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”) and “Roman Israel, Esq.” star Denzel Washington (his eighth acting nomination) as well as newcomers Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”) and Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”), the only acting nominee to ever perform her own nominated Best Song, “Mighty River.” Another nominated film celebrates the diverse musical culture of Mexico, Disney/Pixar animated global blockbuster “Coco” ($738 million worldwide).