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RE: Season 2017-2018 Week 8 Results | 16W-15L-10P | -82€ Loss
Great job keep it up.
Have you looked at Kelly Staking? I find it very good for calculating stakes when finding value across a wide variation of odds from shorts to long shots.
I have looked into the Kelly Criterion in the past. The thing I get stuck on is that it's quite impossible to make exact estimations. The huge value spots are rare these days and making profit has become more about grinding it out. I also place 100+ bets each week which makes kelly complicated. I am used to flatbetting which has worked for me over the years. I tend to avoid lower 1.8- odds who usually have lower value and higher 3.0+ odds who bring along much higher variance. My records show better ROI on 2.3+ odds, so betting those also flat can in a way be compared to kelly.
It is interesting though and I do realise I put my current comfort situation above trying to maximise my returns. The risk vs reward and quality vs quantity questions are one of the more difficult in betting imo.
Kelly Staking is interesting but without tools it does take a bit of extra calculation. I am very similar to you in that I have a comfort zone and am loathe to bet anything under about 1.70 but I do sometimes take long odds and I use the principle of Kelly Staking when I do. Long odds do give you greater variance but if your stake is lower then it does smooth out your results. I sometimes use The Geeks Toy to trade in-play on Betfair and there is a staking mode there based on Payout where basically your stake is auto-calculated by dividing your set payout amount by your odds. For instance if your Payout value is set at $100, then at 2.00 odds you are betting $50 and at 5.00 odds you are betting $20 and at 10.00 odds you are betting $10. It works pretty well for me and I've found great value at long odds and not been punished for over-staking them.