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RE: Season 2017-2018 Week 8 Results | 16W-15L-10P | -82€ Loss

in #money7 years ago

I have looked into the Kelly Criterion in the past. The thing I get stuck on is that it's quite impossible to make exact estimations. The huge value spots are rare these days and making profit has become more about grinding it out. I also place 100+ bets each week which makes kelly complicated. I am used to flatbetting which has worked for me over the years. I tend to avoid lower 1.8- odds who usually have lower value and higher 3.0+ odds who bring along much higher variance. My records show better ROI on 2.3+ odds, so betting those also flat can in a way be compared to kelly.

It is interesting though and I do realise I put my current comfort situation above trying to maximise my returns. The risk vs reward and quality vs quantity questions are one of the more difficult in betting imo.

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Kelly Staking is interesting but without tools it does take a bit of extra calculation. I am very similar to you in that I have a comfort zone and am loathe to bet anything under about 1.70 but I do sometimes take long odds and I use the principle of Kelly Staking when I do. Long odds do give you greater variance but if your stake is lower then it does smooth out your results. I sometimes use The Geeks Toy to trade in-play on Betfair and there is a staking mode there based on Payout where basically your stake is auto-calculated by dividing your set payout amount by your odds. For instance if your Payout value is set at $100, then at 2.00 odds you are betting $50 and at 5.00 odds you are betting $20 and at 10.00 odds you are betting $10. It works pretty well for me and I've found great value at long odds and not been punished for over-staking them.

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