Magicdice game over!
Dear steem-bountiers
so after less than a month i made my post https://steemit.com/steemit/@intellihandling/where-to-invest-200-steem
today i loose in @magicdice my last steems as usual, so here i am without all those 200 Steem, but with:
163337.3 MAGIC
Rank: 692 and 2.72k futures in @drugwars
357 SP
What i have from it?
This is my question, maybe i am loosing something, but i do not feel any benefit after it, so i ask you my friends what i should expect from such choices, finally i mixed up my investments but it is still my doubt about @magicdice and @drugwars, my feel is they are abusing our fidelity and make money for themself, what do you think?
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so you made more then 150% profit If I'm right? Interesting you post about this. I'm keeping an eye open for your next projects :)
Dear @brothermic, right now i spent 200 Steem, but we Will see the result, i Hope...
Posted using Partiko Android
Per mia fortuna, ho perso tutte le mie prime 12 giocate con magicdice quindi ho deciso di smettere fin da subito.
Con drugwars sono uscito vincente, essendomi solo registrato e non avendoci mai giocato! 😜
Un caro abbraccio! 🤗
Posted using Partiko Android
I never believed in the fairness in the play of magicdice , i also have lost much.
It's very transparent and fair but the odds are against you. You don't understand how math works?
Heavy loss on Magic Dice. I slowed down a lot for the same thing that happened to you. Loosing twice in a row with a 94% win rate when betting big? Seems fishy.
Posted using Partiko iOS
It's not fishy because you know exactly what the odds are and since they use a blockchain there is no way to fraud. There is not a way to make a casino more transparent than this.
However, their whole business model is based on having an edge over players. If you play enough games you will lose eventually because the law of large numbers comes into play. For the same reason martingale strategy doesn't work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
The only way to make consistent money with a casino is by being the casino. You can invest into the bankroll on moonsteem. It's practically guaranteed to make you money for the reason that the house has an edge.
On magicdice you can double your money with a 49% chance to win. That means you win 49% of the time and lose 51% of the time long term. Therefore you have a negative expected payout ratio when gambling. Since there is no skill involved in this game you can't overcome the house edge and will lose money over time.
The only casino games that are an exception to this are poker and other games where some type of skill is involved.
Martingale (betting system)
A martingale is any of a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. The martingale strategy has been applied to roulette as well, as the probability of hitting either red or black is close to 50%.
If you lose a bet with a 94% win rate two times in a row is .36% which is very unlucky and unlikely. It's just math but I'm not a coder so Idk how it works.
It's not unlikely at all over thousands of games, more like the contrary. If you play enough games it's very likely to happen because law of big numbers kicks in.
Yes my friend, it is fishy!! And not only it, look at that:
Drugwars has the same economics of a ponzi scheme, it's not worth it as an investment.
Magicdice is just gambling, it's logic that you will lose all your money. Since the house has an edge over you.
You would have been better of just power up your steem and then sell your votes with minnowbooster or smartmarket.
Dear @niel96, so if it is ponzi scheme, why steemit administration do not stop them to use our blockchain? Is it so real anarchy this fucking shit steemit?
It's a ponzi scheme because they have not really a way to generate revenue. Players pay for upgrades and then they use 80% of that money to payout users and 20% goes to the developers. So basically old users are payed out with money from new users. That's why the steem reward pool was declining all the time, nobody was putting in any more money.
Drugwars was actually a very good idea but it went wrong in the execution of the game, they didn't think out everything properly. And they shouldn't have made these promises that you can earn steem which made some people invest a lot. They created the high expectations themselves...
There is not really much stopping them. They have enough steem to do a flag war if they wanted. Karma will also catch up with them eventually since nobody will trust them anymore in the future when they come with new projects.
It's pretty much anarchy but that's where everybody asked for. It's one of the downsides of the decentralization. But it's not really different than most capitalism, steem is controlled by a minority who have a big stake. Which makes it more of a monarchy than anarchy, the elite is still in control.
Besides that they did a bait and switch game. People paid them in Steem and now they want to give some worthless Future tokens? Nobody wants those tokens.
If the Drugwars developers would have lived in the USA they would have been sued already.
@intellihandling, Unfortunate to hear about your losses. Have a peaceful time ahead and stay blessed.
It was a loose too making power up with steem value right now...:((
Hope that soon you will gain more profitable opportunities. Enjoy your time ahead.
Drugwars is a Ponzi poured into a game... It is fun, as long as you don't invest big money into it... Keep it that way!
Magic Dice is a fair casino, but it still is a casino with an edge over the players. They will pay you out dividends for your Magic Dice Tokens, but it will take you a long time before you will have regained your 200 Steem you lost betting there... That is just the way it works!
I have both MagicDice and DrugWars accounts. They both looked reasonable in the beginning but as they keep changing the rules, in their favor, it has turned me off of both of them. I bet very little and use the 94% probability and still get way too many rolls over 94. So I'm sticking with Texas Hold'em. At least the decisions are mine on how to play. DrugWars is disappointing as well. Luring everyone into creating accounts and building assets with the promise of payout in STEEM, then - yep - changing the rules. I am in profit on my account because I haven't put any of my own money in it since the very beginning. But it's a very small profit and the game changes with no instructions, so it's not even fun to play.
That is from my reply below. Since you mentioned Holdem (my game of choice) I thought I'd point out that Krypto Gamers.
Resteemed by @resteembot! Good Luck!
Check @resteembot's introduction post or the other great posts I already resteemed.