If only I had just stuck to Bitcoin when I became so obsessed with crypto two years ago. I'd be up quite a bit of money compared to still being in the red today.

The question I have to ask myself is...

Am I continuing to make the same mistake?

A lot of us keep doubling down on altcoins because we know that the liquidity issues can get insane very quickly. Every time that alts crash is another opportunity to potentially invest in a network that goes x100 over the next few years.

When it really comes down to it I want to put my money where my time is. Sometimes I'm not looking for the highest ROI, but instead just want to support the projects I think have value to me personally.

The problem with this logic is that it's not exactly true. Bitcoin has immense value. It has the highest censorship resistance and best security of any project out there. It will be the first to start taking real shots at the central banking cartel.

So why am I not that interested in putting my money into Bitcoin?

If I'm being honest with myself, it's because I'm bored and greedy. Bitcoin is boring and I know that alts will eventually start massively outperforming it at some point. We need to be honest with ourselves when we aren't making the safe play.

So Litecoin then?

Yep, good ol' Litecoin... and I base this decision solely on the recent halving event. Litecoin liquidity is going to run out in November and the price is going to spike out of control... or so that's the hope.

But when?

Well, Litecoin is up 10% in the last 24 hours. That's higher than most projects but not even close to where it needs to be for this gamble to be worth it.

We should be thinking of liquidity as a faucet pouring into a pool. The Litecoin faucet has just been cut in half. This signals multiple events:

• Inflation has been cut in half (obviously)
• 75% of all Litecoin was mined on August 5th.
• Liquidity is slowly being drained from the pool.
• Miners have less incentive to mine. (hash rate down 60%)

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75% of all Litecoin mined.

The first halving event is always the most significant one. However, the second is interesting as well. Anyone can buy at this level knowing that at most their stake can only be diluted 25% by inflation. This is obviously a huge exaggeration because it takes over 100 years for that to actually happen. Conversely, over the last hundred years USD has lost 98% of its value and very few citizens seem to question that fact.

Also, the rate at which these networks are growing far outpaces the inflation rate. Even if these POW coins didn't have a halving event they'd be doing just fine. This is one of the reasons I'm bullish on DigiByte. It has no halving event and they are creating tech that multiple other POW coins use like DigiShield. Not having a halving event will lower volatility and give the community more peace of mind because they have a bit more stability.

However, what we have is what we have. Bitcoin has a halving event, and due to it having the biggest market cap by a huge margin, the fundamentals of Bitcoin tend to have an effect on every other project, for now.

LIQUIDITY

Back to Litecoin. Imagine all the bots and random stake holders willing to sell between where we are now ($60) and x2-x3 from here. Once that liquidity is gone, there isn't a lot more coming in. The people who buy Litecoin at $120 likely aren't looking to sell at a lower level. The upcoming winter bull run is going to create a lot of temporary FOMO HODLERS.

The halving event is going to cut inflation supply by 2.6 million coins a year. By the time winter rolls around over a million coins are going to be gone from the pool. This isn't that big of a deal unless there is huge demand to buy. I'm betting their will be.

We've all seen it before. Liquidity runs completely dry and all of a sudden prices start bouncing around in huge chunks as the trading bots attempt to discover a new price that will tempt previous holders into selling.

Conclusion

Half of the people on Steem are extremely salty due to this extended bear market. We are on loser's tilt. However, in as little as 3 months, that can change very fast, and it won't be a good thing. Swinging from loser's tilt to winner's tilt is a very good way to make foolish decisions that will lose money in the long run. Tread carefully.

The safe play.

I honestly don't think Litecoin liquidity is going to run dry until Bitcoin hits 20k. The smartest investment decision at this point is to stick with Bitcoin at least until it reaches ATHs again. Maybe one day I'll learn my lesson and start making the safe play.

Gamble Gamble.