Do the Bitcoin bull run begin immediately after halving

Well the halving year of Bitcoin is one which investors and miners and even market speculators look forward to more than any other thing as there is usually the confidence and believe that with each halving then a bullish run in the price of Bitcoin is going to begin, this belief is based on the fact that each halving event usually creates a supply shock and it further makes Bitcoin more scarce with rather increased in demands which leads to high price surge.

Almost everyone today have become somewhat familiar with the halving event of Bitcoin and the fact it has notable impact on Bitcoin price as history has shown us time and time again which actually makes everyone to eagerly wait for this famous halving event time with confidence that bullish run would begin shortly on Bitcoin, yes everyone wants to see a green market especially for investors but long term and short term and the know that investing in Bitcoin shortly before it halves around the time would mean more profit when the bullishness ensue.

But then there is a problem as often people have wrong expectations and sometimes we want to see immediate reaction in the price of Bitcoin after it halves I mean sometimes we forget this is still a financial market driven by buyers and sellers and our bullish expectations often gets the best of us, but really why is that? This happens to people who immediately wants to see quick reaction in Bitcoin price after the halving.

But then that begs the question or rather makes one wonder truly if the Bitcoin bull run begins immediately after the halving event as many feels and we would like. Well we would go back in time in history to find out.

Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Supposed To Start Immediately After Halving

Well I would really like us to check the previous halving of Bitcoin over the years to see really if the Bitcoin bull run began immediately or if there was even a bull run at all, well we know that this halving event like the world cup happens every four years and ofcourse it's a period or an event that's much anticipated more than any other thing in the cryptocurrency space.

Let's consider some past halving as regards what happens then, as it's often the case there is no better teacher than history.

Well the first Bitcoin halving actually was around 28th of the month November in 2012, yes that was the first month Bitcoin underwent this halving mechanism. Now what followed, like with what results.

During this period before that halving of November 28, 2012 Bitcoin was trading around $12 give or take but then what happened later, just over a 12 months period from a measly $12 the price made significant gains topping out at around $1.2-1.3k that's really a made increment, it was over 100× from the before the event, it's important to note that this year a bull run followed but this mad gains was recorded after a year, that's a year after the halving.

Then comes the second halving of Bitcoin which actually took place around 2016 I believe that's four years later after the first halving around July 9th of 2016 the second halving event of Bitcoin occured and notably as chart and history shows, before this halving event Bitcoin price traded around $650 or so, but then what happened after the halving.

Well after like 18 months after the halving Bitcoin price made quit a significant gain and traded around $20k which was insane gains from where the price was at prior to the halving. This was like 30× from where the price was before the 2016 halving and yes this shows once again just like in 2016 that after the Bitcoin halving insane price action is often witnessed called the bull season and once again it took a while, this gains was recorded over a period of 18 months.

Well the first halving went well, the second as well bull run ensued after, what about the third halving, was any alteration?

Well the 3rd halving event of Bitcoin occured around 2020 in the month of May in the eleventh day of the month. What was Bitcoin's price before the halving? well it was around $8500 to $9000 just silent at that level and nothing much but what happens afterwards, well after about some 11 months we saw Bitcoin trade at around $64k that's like 7× from what it was before the 2020 halving though some argue it didn't top out there as november of 2021 which was 18months later like in it reached $69k which is like an 8× and same period it took in the second halving 18months to top out.

Points To Note

It's important we understand just like the 3 past halving shows that bull run would always follow eventually, and just like the 2012, the 2016 and 2020 halving event this years of 2024 would also come too but it doesn't happen immediately like we have seen from the previous ones.

In 2012 it took Bitcoin 12 months for Bitcoin to reach its top, in 2016 and 2020 it took 18 month for Bitcoin to top out after the halving which shows it doesn't happen immediately infact we are still early if our hope is to get the good returns of the coming bull run, so it's not too late yet.

Also it's important to note too that with each bull season there is a decrease in the percentage gains, the first one had 100× or more the second about 30× and the third about 7-8× from what the price was pre listing ofcourse to topping out so this shows a sharp decline almost like with increase in market capitalization then decrease in the percentage gains so we might not see up to 100× or 30× or 8× from this year's pre halving price to where it would top out likely around 2025.

Before the halving this year Bitcoin was ranging around $60-70k and am expecting just a decent 2× which likely means around $120k or a 6 figure Bitcoin price is what I feel would likely play out but yet not immediately, it might take a period of 11-18 months.

If it takes it 18 months like the two previous ones then it would top out around October 2025 if it takes it 12months like the first halving event then around April next year so invariably there is still time to make massive gains and we shouldn't be too concerned by the recent downside in the market, it's often the case in this volatile market.

It's true that past result doesn't always guarantee future performance but in the case of Bitcoin history has been one of our greatest ally and it almost rarely fails thats why we believe it ofcourse until it fails but it has not yet so it's logical to believe it would play out again, but inasmuch expecting immediate bull run would be wrong of us.

Conclusion

Well if you are new here in the crypto space then it's right to have some patience and invest wisely and if you don't have the emotions to handle the market then it's wise not to even venture as this would be quiet damaging indeed, better stay off if you are not disciplined and lack proper knowledge but if you do then you would know that most often times than not history always repeats itself in this market.