全球股灾：日本银行危机引发的恐慌

昨天金融市场出现了惨烈的暴跌，多国的市场都出现了大幅下跌。纳斯达克、国内的A股自然也不例外，最惨的是日本股市，多次触发所谓的熔断机制。

股市熔断是一个让人啼笑皆非的事情。2015年的股灾，也实行过熔断机制，结果却演变成了一个闹剧。所有人都想套现，都知道一旦熔断就失去了机会，所以开盘时没有，一会儿就触发了熔断，反而成了股灾的放大器。

这次全球股灾的高涨，原因尚不清楚，不过很大概率是由日本引发的。据说是日本一家大型银行被爆出可能破产。这种场景和2008年的金融危机，比如雷曼兄弟的倒闭，太像了，所以引起了投资者的恐慌。

在全球股票市场中，日本股市的下跌幅度也是最大的。

此情此景，让我想到不到半年前，油管上某个知名UP主还在嘲笑某些人鼓吹“东升西降”是21世纪的意识形态潮流，也就是所谓的中国的崛起和西方的衰落。

我也不认同这种所谓的“东升西降”，因为全球经济是一个整体，人类也是一个整体。在这个时代，大家都是一荣俱荣的。

那位UP主说，他的观点是有些嘲讽的，说有些国内的人鼓吹“东升西降”，结果真的导致了“东升西降”。东升是在中国东边的日本升了，而在西边的中国却降了。

理由是，日本的股票市场去年开始一直不断的上涨，今年已经涨到了泡沫经济的水平。泡沫经济在90年代初上涨了，泡沫经济上涨了。泡沫经济刚刚破灭时的水平，失落了30年，终于结束了。而中国的经济却因为房地产企业的大批倒闭和地方土地财政的缓和，陷入了类似通缩的境地，遇到了很大的麻烦。

其实我就觉得这话有些言之过早。日本泡沫经济破灭之后，经济萎缩，消费不振。安倍晋三执政时期，所谓的“安倍经济学”说穿了，也就是凯恩斯主义的一套。政府超发货币，提高总需求，拉动经济走出低谷。

但是历史已经多次证明了，靠政府印钞拉动经济的做法，只能造成短期的经济繁荣。近期来看，它会消耗非常稀缺的资本，在长远的时间上造成产品的短缺，这就是巨量的通货膨胀。那些由于被政府印钞导致的错误的价格信号所引导的投资，最终都无法获得利润，面临清算。这就形成了商业周期。

有人说，从去年以来，日本股市的上涨，是安倍经济学终于起作用了，帮助日本走出了长达30年的衰退。

但这更像是，垂死病人的身上打了一针激素，让它暂时消失。

因为很明显，在日本股市节节上升的同时，伴随着日元的浮贬值，这完全符合奥派经济学的货币理论。超发货币，会推高某些资产的市场价格，但会导致货币本身的价值贬值，也就是通货膨胀。

相较之下，在这轮房地产危机当中，中国政府并没有像2008年那样推出财政刺激措施，也没有像美国时代危机时那样救助国营的房地美。仅仅是放松了限购与信贷方面的限制，进行救市。

放松实际上让住房市场更加的市场化，减少了管制，应该来说是更正确的经济政策。

虽然中国政府没有针对某些危机产业印发货币救市，是非常正确的操作。但中国也有超发货币的倾向，那就是地方因为土地财政熄火之后，地方政府的财政收入失去了主要的来源。加上经济调整时期，税收来源的下降之后，中央政府不得不发行特别国债，解决地方政府的财政问题。

这也是为什么长期来看，任何一个以政府背景发行的法币，最终都会面临货币超发之后通货膨胀的局面。

相比之下，由算法控制的比特币，会成为更稳定、更值得信赖的货币。

但是不幸的是，在昨天的市场大屠杀当中，货币也遭到血洗，这并没有动摇我对比特币的信心。

任何资产的价格，本质上是反映了参与交易的所有投资者的心理预期，就是奥派经济学所说的主观价值。每个人对一项资产的主观价值都是不一样的，但是在一群人中就能形成一种共识。

人的心理，俗话说人心隔肚皮，人心是善变的，所以这也说明价格是不稳定的。

比特币的暴跌说明，大部分人还只是把比特币看成一种新奇的，有很大风险的资产，并不太理解其中的本质和原理。

所以在股市波动的时候，这种心理也传导到了比特币市场。

但是毕竟也有很多已经认识到比特币的内在机制和内在价值的人，而且这样的人群还在不断的扩大。

在这种市场暴跌的时候，他们会继续持有，甚至逢低加仓，所以比特币并没有很深的跌幅空间。

而根据以往几次的比特币周期来说，真正的牛市应该在今年年底到明年下半年之间。

正好是将那些不坚定的信仰者从这辆比特币列车上洗出去的时候，这样在价格上涨的时候才会走更小的幅度，这样才会产生更高的涨幅。

今天先说到这里吧。

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There were scenes of carnage in the financial markets yesterday, with markets in many countries plunging.
Nasdaq domestic A shares are naturally not in the story, the most tragic is that the Japanese stock market has repeatedly triggered the so-called circuit breaker.
The stock market circuit breaker is a very funny thing, and the stock market disaster from 6000 points in 2015 has also implemented the result of the circuit breaker mechanism into a farce.
Everyone wants to cash out a game, they know that once the circuit breaks, they will lose the opportunity, so the opening is not, and the circuit breaks will be triggered.
Instead, it magnified the stock market crash.
The global stock market crash, so it's hard to say, but there's a high probability that it was triggered by Japan,
It is said that a large bank in Japan has been exposed and may go bankrupt.
This scenario is so similar to the financial crisis of 2008, something like Lehman Brothers, that it caused panic among investors.
The Japanese stock market also suffered the biggest decline of any stock market in the world.
This situation reminds me that less than six months ago, about six months ago, a well-known YouTube up master was mocking some people advocating that the rise of the east and the fall of the West is the historical trend of the 21st century, that is, the so-called rise of China and the decline of the West.
I also do not agree with this so-called rise in the east and fall in the west, because the global economy is a whole, and humanity is a whole.
In these times, we all prosper together.
The up Lord said that his point of view was somewhat mocking, saying that some people in the country advocated the rise of the east and the fall of the west, and the result was actually the rise of the east and the fall of the west.
This eastward rise is rising in Japan to the east of China, while falling in China to the west.
The reason is that the Japanese stock market, which has been rising continuously since last year, has risen to the highest level this year.
Bubble economy
In the early 1990s, the bubble economy rose.
The bubble economy went up.
The level of the bubble economy just burst, lost for 30 years, finally ended.
On the other hand, China's economy is in a deflationary situation due to the collapse of a large number of real estate enterprises and the easing of local land finances.
Actually, I think it's a little premature.
After the collapse of the Japanese bubble economy, the economy contracted, and the desire failed, and consumption was sluggish.
Under Shinzo Abe,
Trump's so-called Abenomics is a set of Keynesianism.
The government overissued money, boosting aggregate demand and pulling the economy out of the doldrums.
But history has proved many times that relying on the government to print money and boost the economy can only lead to short-term economic prosperity.
In the short term, it will consume very scarce capital and cause product shortages in the long run.
That's a lot of inflation.
Investments that are guided by false price signals caused by government money printing,
Guided wrong investment, ultimately can not reflect on the profits, facing liquidation.
This is the business cycle.
The rise in Japan's stock market since last year, he says, is a sign that Abenomics is finally working, helping Japan pull out of a 30-year recession.
More like, a dying patient, a shot of hormones to make it go away.
Let's say you kill the patient, give him a shot of hormones, make it go away.
Let's say you kill the patient, give him a shot of hormones, make it go away.
Because obviously, the rise of the Japanese stock market, accompanied by the floating depreciation of the yen, is fully in line with the monetary theory of Austrian economics.
Because obviously, the rise of the Japanese stock market, accompanied by the floating depreciation of the yen, is fully in line with the monetary theory of Austrian economics.
Overissuing money will push up the public price of some assets, but it will lead to the value and depreciation of the currency itself, that is, inflation.
In contrast, during the current property crisis, the Chinese government did not launch fiscal stimulus measures as it did in 2008.
There was no bailout of the government-owned Freddie MAC, the two government-owned companies that provided housing financing, as was the case in the American Times crisis of 2008.
It merely eased restrictions on purchases and credit to prop up the market.
Deregulation actually makes the housing market more market-oriented and less regulated, which is probably the right economic policy.
Although the Chinese government did not issue money to rescue the market for some crisis industries, it is very correct operation.
But China also has a tendency to overissue money, that is, after local land finance stalled, local governments lost their main source of fiscal revenue.
Coupled with the decline of tax revenue sources during the period of economic adjustment, the central government had to issue special bonds to solve the financial problems of local governments.
This is also why, in the long run, any fiat currency issued under the background of the government will eventually face inflation after the currency is overissued.
By contrast, Bitcoin, which is controlled by an algorithm, becomes a more stable and trustworthy currency.
But unfortunately, yesterday's market carnage, in which the currency was also bloodied, has not shaken my confidence in Bitcoin.
The price of any asset, in essence, reflects the psychological expectations of all investors involved in education, which is what Austrian economics calls subjective value.
Everyone's subjective value of an asset is different, but a galaxy can form in a group of people.
People's psychology, as the saying goes, people across the belly, the heart is fickle, so this also shows that the price is unstable.
The plunge in bitcoin shows that most people still see bitcoin as a novel, risky asset, and do not understand its nature and principle.
So when the stock market fluctuates, this psychology is also transmitted to the Bitcoin market.
But after all, there are many people who have recognized the intrinsic mechanism and intrinsic value of Bitcoin, and such a crowd is still expanding.
In this kind of market slump, they will continue to hold, and even increase positions on dips, so Bitcoin does not have deep room to fall.
According to the past few bitcoin cycles, the real main body should be between the end of this year and the second half of next year.
It is just the time to wash out those who are not firm believers on the special currency train, so that when the price rises, it will go smaller, so that it will produce less pressure and higher increases.
That's all for today.