乌克兰反击俄罗斯，顿巴斯战局再起风云

假期旅途结束了，就要回归正常的生活。如果还想坚持每天发帖，那我每天就得多学习，多读书，多了解时事，才有足够的话题。

就在我全家旅行的这段时间里，国际上确实发生了一些大事。以色列和伊朗及其支持的势力之间爆发全面冲突的局势吸引了国际社会的注意力，但人们似乎已经淡忘了乌克兰。长此下去,失去西方援助,乌克兰很可能面临前线军事和后方政治双重崩溃的局面。而俗话说,天助自助者,如果让西方盟友看不到胜利的希望,援助只会越来越少。现在西方国家内部也是一团糟,因为所谓的白左开放政策,引入了过多的非法移民,很多西方国家内部都出现了社会撕裂,比如英国,现在就爆发了规模巨大的骚乱。所以没有充分的理由,很难让这些国家政客说服选民将大量的资金援助给乌克兰的必要性。但是年初阿瓦迪夫卡失守以来，乌军失误不断，没有守住奥切列基涅的战略支点，阿卡迪夫卡后方的数道防线被俄军轻松突破。

当前，俄乌争夺的主战场——顿巴斯地区，从北至南一千多公里的战线大致可分为三段：北线（卢甘斯克和哈尔科夫交界地带），东线（卢甘斯克和顿涅斯克的交界处），南线（顿涅斯克到扎波罗热）。这三条前线与乌克兰战略重镇——红军城的距离几乎相等，因而红军城是乌军在顿巴斯地区最重要的后勤枢纽。一旦失去这里的控制权，乌军在顿巴斯地区失败将只是时间问题。面对俄军计划周详的进攻，乌军显得有些力不从心。俄军还开启了哈尔科夫攻势，将乌军吸引到新开辟的哈尔科夫战线，减轻了东线主战场的进攻压力。

乌军手中虽然还有些预备队，但如果只在本土使用，恐怕也难以扭转局势。俄军已经牢牢掌握了乌克兰战场的主动权，在多条战线同时发动进攻，而乌军如果只是被动地使用预备队增援前线，那么战争潜力将被逐渐耗干，并不能改变战争结果。显然，在这种情况下赌一把，反而是更明智的选择。

一周前，乌克兰在赫尔松集中了大量北约装备的精锐部队，出其不意地攻入俄罗斯领土，在库尔斯克取得了不小的战果。据说几天之内就攻占了1000平方公里的土地。俄罗斯在这场攻势中的表现,再次堪称拉胯。一开始格拉西莫夫就像疫情刚爆发时宣称病毒可防可控,没有人传人的某些政府一样，说入侵乌军只是几百人的小部队，可防可控。结果确是前线不断告急,乌军倾巢而出，所以说情况非常严峻。而乌军的表现堪称亮眼，与2022年哈尔科夫大反攻时的战术如出一辙：使用轮式车辆快速反击，抵抗较弱则清理俄军，直接向下一个定居点推进；抵抗较强则绕过，继续向前推进，给当地边防部队和居民造成巨大恐慌。

其实长期观察这场战争,你就会发现双方表现可以用互联网上的热词“抽象”来形容。俄军在阿瓦迪夫卡使用地道战术,偷袭乌军后方,造成防线崩溃之后。这一招在纽约和恰所夫亚尔也曾多次使用,结果依然凑效。此番乌军在2022年哈尔科夫大反攻的战术再度重演,俄方居然也是照单全收,丝毫没有长进。

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The holiday trip is over, and it's time to get back to normal life. If I still want to keep Posting every day, then I have to study more every day, read more books, and learn more about current events, so that I have enough topics.

During the time that my family was traveling, something really big was happening internationally. While a full-blown conflict between Israel and Iran and the forces it supports has captured the international community's attention, Ukraine seems to have been forgotten. In the long run, without Western aid, Ukraine is likely to face both a military collapse on the front and a political collapse on the home front. God helps those who help themselves, as the saying goes, and if Western Allies lose sight of victory, aid will only diminish. At present, Western countries are also in a mess, because the so-called white left open policy has introduced too many illegal immigrants, and many Western countries have appeared social tears, such as the United Kingdom, which has now erupted a huge scale of riots. So it is hard for politicians in these countries to convince voters of the need for large sums of money to go to Ukraine without good reason. However, since the fall of Avadivka at the beginning of the year, the Ukrainian army has made mistakes and failed to hold the strategic fulcrum of Ocherechine, and several lines of defense behind Akadivka have been easily broken through by the Russian army.

At present, the main battlefield of Russia and Ukraine - the Donbas region, from the north to the south of more than 1,000 kilometers of the front can be roughly divided into three sections: the northern front (Luhansk and Kharkiv border), the eastern front (Luhansk and Donetsk border), the southern front (Donetsk to Zhaorizhi). The three fronts are almost equal distances from the strategic Ukrainian town of Red Army City, which is the most important logistical hub for the Ukrainian army in the Donbass region. Once they lose control, it will only be a matter of time before the Ukrainian army is defeated in the Donbass region. In the face of the well-planned Russian attack, the Ukrainian army appeared to be somewhat overwhelmed. The Russian army also launched the Kharkiv Offensive, drawing the Ukrainian army to the newly opened Kharkiv front, reducing the offensive pressure on the main battlefield on the eastern front.

Although there are still some reserves in the hands of the Ukrainian army, if it is only used on the mainland, I am afraid it will be difficult to reverse the situation. The Russian army has firmly seized the initiative in the Ukrainian battlefield, launching attacks on multiple fronts at the same time, and if the Ukrainian army only passively uses reserves to reinforce the front line, then the war potential will be gradually depleted, and it cannot change the outcome of the war. Obviously, in this case, a gamble is the wiser choice.

A week ago, Ukraine concentrated a large number of NATO-equipped elite troops in Kherson, made a surprise advance into Russian territory, and achieved a small victory in Kursk. It is said to have captured 1,000 square kilometers in a matter of days. Russia's performance in this offensive is once again a drag. At first, Gerasimov, like some governments who claimed at the beginning of the epidemic that the virus could be prevented and controlled and that there was no human-to-human transmission, said that the invading Ukrainian army was only a small force of several hundred people and could be prevented and controlled. The result was that the front line was in constant danger, and the Ukrainian army was in full force, so the situation was very serious. The performance of the Ukrainian army is remarkable, and the same tactics as the great Kharkiv counteroffensive in 2022: the use of wheeled vehicles to quickly counterattack, weak resistance to clear the Russian army, directly advance to the next settlement; When the resistance is strong, they bypass and continue to push forward, causing great panic to the local border troops and residents.

In fact, observing this war for a long time, you will find that the performance of both sides can be described by the hot word "abstract" on the Internet. The Russian army used tunnel tactics at Avadivka to sneak behind the Ukrainian army, causing the collapse of the defensive line. This tactic has been used several times in New York and Chacovyar, and it still works. This time, the tactics of the Ukrainian army in the great counter-offensive in Kharkov in 2022 were repeated again, and the Russian side was actually fully accepted according to the single, without any progress.