接着聊川普遇刺事件。

川普遇刺无疑是这两天的大热点，网上有越来越多的细节透露出来。
很多博主都在分析，这也是我们这个时代的特点。就昨天的讨论而言，有人认为这场刺杀是川普自导自演，在自己处境落后或者基本持平的情况下出奇制胜。
从第一场竞选辩论之后，川普和拜登的表现可以说是川普占优，连民主党内部都出现了大量要求换人的声音。

可以说，在这种形势下，完全没必要觉得是当年陈水扁自导自演那样的一出戏。而且更为重要的是，昨天很多博主分析，现场留下了大量的照片和视频，得出了很多让人惊讶的结论。

枪手并非被收买的演员，他就是奔着要川普的命去的。根据川普所站的位置和枪手被击毙的位置，可以很准确地画出子弹的飞行轨迹。

在现实中，子弹是擦着川普的耳朵飞过去的，因为在枪响的时候，川普恰好做了一个侧身身体略微前倾、倚靠在讲台上的下意识动作。这样他的头部偏离在原来的位置大概几个公分。

如果还是那种正常的面向讲台下方的正常动作的话，这颗子弹就会击中他的后脑勺。博主们仔细分析了那张著名的满脸带血、振臂高呼的经典照片。
能看到川普白衬衫上出现的痕迹像是男性乳头的形状，也就是说他当时根本就没穿防弹衣，枪手并不知道这一点，默认他在这种公开场合下一定会穿，所以才奔着爆头去的，这也减小了枪手成功的几率。

如果枪手瞄准的是面积更大的躯干的话，那这次川普肯定是要吃枪子了，即便不死也是要重伤的。所以种种迹象表明，双方都存在着一些疑问，所以不可能是事先有写好剧本沟通好的安排。

当然，如果说是完全意外的话，也有一些相反的证据。这些证据并不是指向川普团队，而是指向政府内部。

枪手在爬上屋顶之前是被现场民众目击了的，而且有人通知了现场的警察，说有人带枪上了屋顶，但警察并没有采取任何的措施。

而且今天早上看到更劲爆的消息，在川普遭到枪击之后，立即反击击毙枪手的特工，他们早就注意到这个枪手的踪迹了。

在枪响之前，他们至少盯住了那枪手长达三分钟。他们将这些情况报告了特勤局的局长，但是对方让他们不要开火、待命，这很难不让人相信政府有内鬼，在配合枪手给他制造机会。

也有人声称自己曾参与过小布什总统安保活动，声称在布什出访一次欧洲的行程当中，由于对方也就是意大利的特种部队，也派出了兵力参与安保活动。
但是双方没有进行有效的沟通，导致安保的美国特勤局的特工团队，几乎要和意大利特种部队开战了。此后，对于是否开火的管制就相当严格。

这一说法也是言之有理。但是也表明，即便在没有阴谋论的情况下，由政府主导的安保效率是多么的低下。

个人认为还是阴谋的成分更大。第一轮总统竞选辩论之后，虽然民主党内有很高的呼声要求换掉拜登。但实际上，民主党是一个大杂烩，党内部的派系众多。只有拜登能够以反特朗普为旗帜团结民主党的各派力量。

如果推举新人，没有谁能够获得民主党内的一致同意，且即便换将推出的新人也无法和川普的人气相匹敌，选举是必败的。

但拜登的衰退迹象如此明显，明眼人都看出他很难再完成下一个四年的总统任期，换人是无法避免的。在这样的情况下，干掉川普是唯一的选择。若共和党这边没有川普参选，同时换人，民主党换人才有赢面。

再者政府内部策划或者配合了这场刺杀活动，也不是不可能。美国虽然有民主选举。但政府主要是不接收选举的官僚主持。它们已经形成了利益集团。就是阴谋论中所说的“深层国家”。而在川普的第一任期内，把企业老板的作风带进了政府。动不动就“you are fired！”。比如联邦调查局局长科米。体制内的人最看重的就是铁饭碗，这恐怕是不能忍的。

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Trump's assassination has undoubtedly been a hot topic in the past two days, with more and more details leaking out online.
A lot of bloggers are analyzing it, which is also characteristic of our times. As far as yesterday's discussion was concerned, some suggested that the assassination was staged by Trump, who staged a surprise victory when he was trailing or almost even.
Since the first election debate, Trump and Biden's performance can be said to be Trump's dominant, and even within the Democratic Party there have been a lot of voices calling for a replacement.

It can be said that under such circumstances, there is absolutely no need to think that Chen Shui-bian directed and performed a drama like that. And more importantly, many bloggers analyzed the scene yesterday and left a large number of photos and videos, drawing many surprising conclusions.

The gunman was not a paid actor, he was going for Trump's life. Based on where Trump was standing and where the shooter was killed, the flight path of the bullet can be mapped very accurately.

In reality, the bullet grazed Trump's ear because at the time of the shooting, Trump made a subconscious motion of leaning slightly forward and leaning on the podium. So his head is about a few centimeters off its original position.

If it had been a normal, normal movement facing down the podium, this bullet would have hit him in the back of the head. Bloggers dissected the famous classic photo of a bloodied face, arms raised and Shouting.
You can see the marks on Trump's white shirt like the shape of male nipples, that is, he was not wearing body armor at that time, the shooter did not know this, the default he will wear in such a public occasion, so he ran to shoot the head, which also reduced the chance of success of the shooter.

If the shooter aimed at a larger torso, then this time Trump was definitely going to be shot, even if he did not die, he would be seriously injured. So there are indications that there were some questions on both sides, so there could not have been a scripted and well-communicated arrangement.

Of course, if it was a complete accident, there is some evidence to the contrary. The evidence points not to the Trump team, but to inside the administration.

The gunman was seen by members of the public before climbing onto the roof, and police were alerted that a gun had been brought onto the roof, but no action was taken.

And this morning saw even more explosive news that after Trump was shot, the agents who killed the gunman immediately fired back, they had long been on the trail of the gunman.

They had their eyes on the gunman for at least three minutes before the shot went off. They reported the situation to the director of the Secret Service, but they were told to hold their fire and stand by, which is hard not to believe that there is a mole in the government working with the shooter to create opportunities for him.

Others claim to have participated in President George W. Bush's security activities, claiming that during Bush's trip to Europe, the other side, namely Italian special forces, also sent troops to participate in security activities.
But the two sides failed to communicate effectively, leaving the team of U.S. Secret Service agents, who secured the security, almost at war with the Italian special forces. Since then, the control over whether to open fire has been quite strict.

That, too, makes sense. But it also shows how inefficient government-led security can be, even in the absence of conspiracy theories.

Personally, I think there's more to it than conspiracy. After the first presidential debate, there were strong calls from within the Democratic Party to replace Biden. But in reality, the Democratic Party is a hodgepodge, with many factions within the party. Only Biden can unite the Democratic Party's various wings under the banner of anti-Trump.

If a new person is elected, no one can get consensus within the Democratic Party, and even if the new person will not be able to match Trump's popularity, the election will be lost.

But the signs of Biden's decline were so obvious that it was clear to all that he would struggle to serve another four years as president, and that a replacement was inevitable. Under these circumstances, killing Trump is the only option. If there is no Trump on the Republican side and a replacement is made, the Democratic replacement will have a chance of winning.

Nor is it impossible that the assassination was planned or coordinated within the government. The United States does have democratic elections. But the government is run mainly by bureaucrats who do not accept elections. They have formed interest groups. It's what conspiracy theories call the "deep state." In his first term, Trump brought the style of a business owner into government. At every turn, "you are fired! . Like FBI Director Comey. What people in the system value most is an iron rice bowl, which I am afraid is intolerable.