以色列暗杀巴勒斯坦领导人：历史重演，局势紧张

昨天聊到全球股市遭遇大屠杀的一个重要原因。虽然普遍认为直接原因是美联储加息引发的，但也有很多其他的原因。比如AI的发展。虽然日新月异，但几乎并没有像大家预期的那样会产生到经济利润。

两年前，ChatGPT刚出来的时候，市场非常火爆，经常连服务器都承受不住，而且AI还大规模封禁账号，特别是与中国有关的账号，搞得我蛮紧张的，因为确实太好用了，如果用不上，可真是怎么办呢？担心的是根本就是多余的金榜上，各种类似ChatGPT的大模型，基本上都是白菜价，甚至免费随便用，根本不愁用不上，也反映出这个市场是非常的卷，还没成型，就已经非常的卷了。在一个非常卷的市场，利润指的是非常微薄的。所以对于AI盈利能力的担忧，也是这波股市下跌的一个重要原因。

当然前面都是扯的闲话，接下来才是今天要谈的主题，那就是愈演愈烈的中东冲突，以及是否会引发地区战争的担忧。其中一个导火索是根特工暗杀了正在以色列首都访问的巴勒斯坦领导人哈尼亚。要知道，第一次世界大战爆发的导火索，同样也是一起暗杀事件。奥匈帝国的王储斐迪南大公在萨拉热窝被塞尔维亚民族主义青年暗杀身亡。所以说此时此刻恰似彼时彼刻。

不过这次暗杀行动确实不得不佩服。不得不说，以色列的情报机构摩萨德确实名不虚传，居然能够在如此高危的情况下成功完成刺杀。而直到目前关于是如何得手的刺杀方式都有好几个版本，其中一些说法比较离谱。

两个多月前，特工就在哈尼亚的住所安放好了炸弹。如果是这样的话，就有些细思极恐了。两个多月前恰好也差不多是伊朗前总统直升机失事的时候，也许伊朗前总统直升机失事的事件，也不是单纯的意外，而是以色列的连环计。也许他们算准了，根据伊朗的政治体制，在前总统死亡后两个月内必然选出新总统，并举行总统就职仪式，而与伊朗关系密切的哈马斯领导人必然会出席这个仪式。因为伊朗是哈马斯的主要支持者，也是哈马斯的“大金主”之一。这个面子是一定要给的。然后就在他的住所安放了炸弹，守株待兔。

就在暗杀哈马斯领导人之前，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡访问了美国，在美国国会进行了演讲，就非常牛叉的政治话术。唬得国会老爷们一愣一愣的，每隔一分钟都要为内塔尼亚胡的话语鼓掌一次，仿佛这里不是美国的民主殿堂国会山，而是到了金正恩将军在开大会，手下人不停的鼓掌，就连在演讲过程中，内塔尼亚胡自己也受不了了，还发出指示说，等我把话讲完不要鼓掌。

其实所说的都是那些很老套的，没逻辑的话语，比如以色列和哈马斯之间的战争是文明对野蛮的战争。我们和以色列和美国是同属西方文明的。我们的战争就是你们的战争，我们的胜利就是你们的胜利。而且就像肯尼迪用国有话语一样，只要你给我们武器，我们就去把任务完成，不需要你美国是一兵一卒。其实与哈马斯相比，双方都是野蛮的战争而已。

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Yesterday I talked about a big reason why the global stock market is suffering a bloodbath. Although it is generally believed that the direct cause is triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, there are many other reasons. Take the development of AI. Despite the rapid development, it has hardly generated the economic profits that everyone expected.

Two years ago, when ChatGPT just came out, the market was very hot, often even the server could not withstand, and AI also banned accounts on a large scale, especially accounts related to China, which made me quite nervous, because it was really too easy to use, if not, but really how to do? The worry is that on the gold list, all kinds of large models similar to ChatGPT are basically cabbage prices, and even free use, which does not worry about use at all, and also reflects that this market is a very large volume, which has not yet been formed. In a very tight market, margins mean very thin. Therefore, concerns about the profitability of AI are also an important reason for this wave of stock market decline.

That's all gossip, of course, but now comes the subject of today's discussion, which is the growing conflict in the Middle East and the fear of a regional war. One of the triggers was the assassination of Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was visiting the Israeli capital. After all, the First World War was also triggered by an assassination. Archduke Ferdinand, Crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, was assassinated in Sarajevo by young Serbian nationalists. So now is like then.

But you have to admire the assassination. It has to be said that the Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, is indeed worthy of its reputation for being able to pull off a successful assassination in such a high-risk situation. Until now, there have been several versions of how it was done, some of which are far from accurate.

Agents planted a bomb at Ariya's house more than two months ago. If that's the case, it's a bit of a scary thought. A little more than two months ago, exactly when the former Iranian president's helicopter crashed, it's a little scary to think about. Perhaps the crash of the former Iranian president's helicopter was not a simple accident, but an Israeli conspiracy. Perhaps they have calculated that, according to Iran's political system, a new president must be elected within two months of the death of the former president, and an inauguration ceremony must be held in which the leaders of Hamas, who have close ties to Iran, are bound to attend. Because Iran is the main supporter of Hamas, but also one of the "big donors" of Hamas. This face must be given. Just before the assassination of the Hamas leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the United States, addressed the United States Congress, and it was great political talk. The German will be a stunned man, every minute to applaud for Netanyahu's words once, as if here is not the Capitol Hill of the democratic palace of the United States, but to General Kim Jong-un in the general assembly, Kyle people kept applauding, even in the speech process, Netanyahu himself can not stand it, but also issued instructions to say that I finish speaking do not clap.

What is being said is very solid, illogical statements, such as the war between Israel and Hamas is a war of civilization against barbarism. We are part of the same Western civilization as Israel and the United States. Our war is your war, and our victory is your victory. And just as Kennedy used the national language, if you give us the weapons, we will get the job done, without you being a soldier. Compared with Hamas, both sides are fighting a brutal war.