巴以开战一个多月

题图：cheva用dall e3创作

今天说一说已经打了近一个月的巴以战争吧。在进行了近二十天的狂轰滥炸之后，以军开始了地面攻势，整个攻势兵分三路，两路从北方攻击，一路从中部将加沙地区切断。其实这种兵分三路的打法已经暴露了以军的问题，说明以军这次军事行动想要达到它的目的困难非常大。

《孙子兵法》说兵者国之大事，不可不察，不可不慎。所以不开战则已，一旦开战必须集中自己的主力，对敌人的薄弱环节发起攻击，务必一击必中，用最短的时间、最小的代价结束战斗。特别对于以色列这样一个小国来说，更应该如此。如今兵分三路，每一路都无法单独取得决定性的胜利，战争是这种打法，从一开始就注定以色列有很大的概率陷入战争泥潭。

之所以会这样，应该还是以军或者以色列政府内部的矛盾比较严重，派系斗争比较剧烈，将大量的部队集中在一起使用，无法做到有效的协调，反而有可能给敌人制造机会，造成混乱，导致突然崩盘式的溃败。这种事情在历史上典型的事例就是前秦的苻坚，他集中八十万大军南下进攻东晋，结果在淝水一战失利后，整个由北方多个民族组成的大军轻易就土崩瓦解。所以现在这种分兵进攻的战术，虽然很难赢得漂亮，但至少不会输得很难看，毕竟加沙是弹丸之地，只要以色列能够坚持到哈马斯在地道内的储备耗完，就可以获得一个体面的结果，给国内民众一个交代了。当然这还要看国际形势和时间站不站在以色列这一边了。

历史上也有类似的例子，就是北宋时期的五路伐西夏，面临的局面和今天的以色列非常的像。与北宋相比，西夏只是一个小国，但是在与北宋的多次交锋中，西夏却是胜多败少，给北宋朝廷制造了不少麻烦。后来，宋朝经过王安石变法，从民间汲取了一大笔财力，相应的军力也有大的提升，于是下决心解决西夏问题。同样因为宋朝内部政治派别的倾轧，形势复杂，新党和旧党之争从未停止，军中也是这样的情况。所以这支宋朝大军最后是兵分五路，各打各的。所以这场战争一开始就注定是一场持久战，好在，举全国之力碾压西夏还是做得到的。虽然宋军在前线进展缓慢，但是却是稳定的，西夏也逐步陷入了亡国的危机。然而就在此时，北宋却遭遇了靖康之变，金人南侵，攻打西夏的主力西军也被调往内地抵抗金军去了，于是西夏又得到了喘息的机会，国祚也得到了延续，直到多年以后被成吉思汗所灭。

而如今以色列由美国这个超级大国罩着，出现这种情况的可能性还是比较低的，但是也不是完全没有，毕竟哈马斯不是唯一与以色列作对的势力，在他周围还有北部的真主党和叙利亚。如果加沙地区久攻不下，被迫投入更多的军力，造成北部防御的空虚，很难保证这两家势力不会乘虚而入。所以说以军的地面攻势，三路大军中两路从北方进攻，其中一路沿海岸线推进，这个地区几乎没有什么民用建筑，很少人居住，推进相当顺利，而另一路从东北角的拜特哈农农场进攻，这一路线应该是在哈马斯预判的以军的进攻路线之上，所以哈马斯有比较充分的准备，抵抗也非常激烈，这一路的进展从开战到现在微乎其微。进展最大的是中部这一区域，显然哈马斯没有预判以军入侵加沙的战略，这一路很快就打穿了加沙地带，抵达了海岸线，并开始向北，与第一路沿海岸向南进攻的以军会合，形成对加沙城的包围。

但是哈马斯已经是高度专业化的武装组织了，他们的抵抗方式就是以地道为依托的游击战，以军可以尽管去占领地面，但是却无法实现百分之百的控制，就像当年美军在越南一样，他们经过激烈的战斗占领一个越南村庄，但是一旦美军离开，越共游击队又会重新回来占领。而且从互联网上也可以看到哈马斯发布了大量哈马斯战士从地道出击，用他们自己开发的亚锡串联火箭筒打击以色列装甲目标的视频，可以说是防不胜防。当然也不是说，

而且从互联网上也可以看到哈马斯发布了大量
哈马斯战士从地道出击,
用他们自己开发的亚锡串联火箭筒打击,
以色列装甲目标的视频,
可以说是防不胜防,
当然也不是说,虽然哈马斯的战术非常灵活,
战士的主观冷冻性也非常强,
作战勇敢,但也并不是说这场仗很轻松,
毕竟相对于以色列,相对来说以色列的国力还是碾压性,
这场仗对双方的士兵来说都将是一场地狱般的考验,地狱般的体验,
网上也有视频展示躲藏在地道中的哈马斯战士,
用海绵过滤脏水来饮用,条件非常的艰苦,
很有当年志愿军在上甘岭上进行坑道作战的既视感,
只是很多时候战争的胜负并不是由双方的士兵来决定的,
战争打来打去其实是高层精英少数几个人的利益,
大部分士兵都是无谓的炮灰而已,
这个问题在下一篇文章再讨论吧。

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Title image: Cheva with Dall E3

Today, let's talk about the Palestinian-Israeli war, which has been fought for nearly a month. After nearly 20 days of indiscriminate bombardment, the Israeli army began a ground offensive, which was divided into three routes, two from the north and one from the center to cut off the Gaza region. As a matter of fact, this three-way method of fighting has exposed the problems of the Israeli army, and shows that it is very difficult for the Israeli army to achieve its goal in this military operation.

"The Art of War" says that the major affairs of the country of soldiers must not be ignored and not careless. Therefore, if you don't start a war, you must concentrate your main forces, launch an attack on the enemy's weak links, and be sure to hit with one blow, and end the battle in the shortest time and at the lowest cost. This is especially true for a small country like Israel. Now the army is divided into three ways, each of which cannot achieve a decisive victory alone, and the war is this way of fighting, and from the very beginning Israel is doomed to a high probability of falling into the quagmire of war.

The reason for this is that the contradictions within the Israeli army or the Israeli government are relatively serious, the factional struggle is relatively fierce, and the use of a large number of troops together cannot achieve effective coordination, but may create opportunities for the enemy, cause chaos, and lead to a sudden collapse-like rout. A typical example of this kind of thing in history is Fu Jian of the Former Qin, who concentrated 800,000 troops to attack the Eastern Jin Dynasty, but after the defeat in the First Battle of Weishui, the entire army composed of many ethnic groups in the north easily collapsed. So now this tactic of dividing troops to attack, although it is difficult to win beautifully, but at least it will not lose ugly, after all, Gaza is a small land, as long as Israel can hold out until Hamas's reserves in the tunnels are exhausted, it can get a decent result and give an explanation to the people at home. Of course, it depends on the international situation and time, whether we are on Israel's side.

There are similar examples in history, that is, the Northern Song Dynasty's five-way expedition to Western Xia, which faced a situation very similar to today's Israel. Compared with the Northern Song Dynasty, the Western Xia was only a small country, but in many confrontations with the Northern Song Dynasty, the Western Xia won more and lost less, creating a lot of trouble for the Northern Song court. Later, the Song Dynasty drew a large amount of financial resources from the people through Wang Anshi's reforms, and the corresponding military strength was also greatly improved, so it was determined to solve the Western Xia problem. Also because of the internal political factions of the Song Dynasty, the situation was complicated, and the struggle between the new party and the old party never stopped, and this was also the case in the army. Therefore, this army of the Song Dynasty was finally divided into five routes, each fighting its own. Therefore, this war was destined to be a protracted war from the beginning, but fortunately, it was still possible to crush Western Xia with the strength of the whole country. Although the Song army made slow progress on the front line, it was stable, and the Western Xia gradually fell into the crisis of losing the country. However, at this time, the Northern Song Dynasty suffered the Jingkang Change, the Jin people invaded the south, and the main force of the Western Army to attack the Western Xia was also transferred to the interior to resist the Jin Army, so the Western Xia got a chance to breathe, and the Guozuo was also extended, until it was destroyed by Genghis Khan many years later.

Now that Israel is covered by the superpower of the United States, the possibility of this situation is relatively low, but it is not completely impossible, after all, Hamas is not the only force that opposes Israel, and there is Allah and Syria in the north around him. If the Gaza Strip is unable to defend itself for a long time and is forced to commit more troops, creating a void in the defenses of the north, it is difficult to guarantee that these two forces will not take advantage of the situation. Therefore, the ground offensive of the Israeli army, two of the three major armies attacked from the north, one of which advanced along the coastline, there were almost no civilian buildings in this area, few people lived, and the advance was quite smooth, while the other road attacked from the Beit Hanon farm in the northeast corner, this route should be on the offensive line of the Israeli army predicted by Hamas, so Hamas was relatively well prepared, and the resistance was also very fierce, and the progress of this road from the start of the war to the present is minimal. The most advanced area is in the central region, where Hamas apparently did not anticipate the Israeli invasion of Gaza, which soon penetrated the Gaza Strip, reached the coastline, and began to move north, joining up with the Israeli army, which was attacking south along the coast on the first route, to form an encirclement of Gaza City.

But Hamas is already a highly specialized armed organization, and their way of resistance is through tunnel-based guerrilla warfare, where the Israeli army can occupy the ground but cannot achieve 100% control, just like the U.S. military in Vietnam, they occupied a Vietnamese village after fierce fighting, but once the U.S. military left, the Viet Cong guerrillas would come back to occupy it. And it can also be seen from the Internet that Hamas has released a large number of videos of Hamas fighters attacking from the tunnels and hitting Israeli armored targets with their self-developed Yatous tandem rocket launchers, which can be said to be unguardable. Of course, it doesn't mean that

And it can also be seen from the Internet that Hamas has released a large number of them
Hamas fighters attack from the tunnels,
Strike with the Yative tandem bazooka of their own development,
Video of Israeli armored targets,
It can be said that it is impossible to prevent,
Of course, it is not to say that although Hamas's tactics are very flexible,
The subjective freezing of the fighters is also very strong,
The battle is brave, but it does not mean that this battle is easy,
After all, relative to Israel, Israel's national strength is still overwhelming.
This battle will be a hellish test, a hellish experience for the soldiers on both sides,
There are also videos online showing Hamas fighters hiding in tunnels,
Filtering dirty water with a sponge to drink, the conditions are very difficult,
It has a sense of déjà vu that the volunteers carried out tunnel operations on Shangganling,
It's just that many times the outcome of the war is not decided by the soldiers on both sides,
The war is actually fought back and forth in the interests of a few people in the upper elite,
Most of the soldiers are just useless cannon fodder,
More on that in the next article.