The Great War Centenary: Part One, The Tinderbox

World War One started with the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, in Sarajevo. Why would a political assassination in Bosnia spark a global war?

This is Part One of a series of posts leading up to the centenary of the end of The Great War on November 11, 2018. For the introduction please see The Great War Centenary: Introduction.

The pre-1914 political landscape

To understand what caused the outbreak of a devastating war between the great European powers in 1914, one has to understand the political landscape of Europe and the Ottoman Empire at the time. The causes will be found there.

Up until 1914, Europe had experienced an unusually period of relative peace for over forty years. The main powers had built alliances aimed to stop the aggressive behaviour by states — such as Germany in 1870. This had kept the peace by preventing any one nation taking a major dominating role in Europe.

Franco-Prussian War

The Franco-Prussian War (July 1870 to January 1871) was a conflict between France and the North German Confederation led by the Kingdom of Prussia. There was no unified state called Germany at the time. There were, however, Prussian ambitions to create a unified German state by extending the North German Confederation to the southern German states — Baden, Württemberg, Bavaria and Hesse-Darmstad.

The French feared that if the Prussians succeeded this would shift the balance of European power in their favour. The Napoleonic wars had brought great turmoil, destruction and misery to Europe. The Congress of Vienna of 1815, following on the defeat of Napoleon, sought to rebuild the boundaries, but also, importantly, to make sure that there would be a balance of power amongst the states.

So the French declared war on Prussia. Prussian chancellor Otto von Bismarck is thought to have deliberately provoked the French into declaring war on Prussia in order to draw the independent southern German states into the Confederation. The Germans prevailed, much to the surprise of the rest of the world. Eventually, Paris was put under siege and the French surrendered.

This had two major consequences:

1. A unified German Empire, under the Prussian king Wilhelm I, was created, disturbing the balance of power
2. The French were particularly embittered by this and France fell into chaos and military decline for years

Alliances

In 1887 Germany entered into a secretive alliance (Reinsurance Treaty) with Austria-Hungary. This was followed by the Dual Alliance (1879) which was a defensive alliance between the two powers. In particular, they would support each other if attacked by Russia, and have "benevolent neutrality" if attacked by another European power (read France). This alliance was further strengthened by the signing of a secret agreement (the Triple Alliance, 1882) with the two powers plus Italy. It promised mutual support for each other if attacked by any other great power. (Italy never honoured this agreement and stayed out of the war in 1914.)

In reaction to the Triple Alliance of 1882 and spooked at the rumour that Britain would join the Triple Alliance, the Franco-Russian Alliance was formed in 1891. This strengthened economic and military ties between the two countries. With Russian support, France intensified its colonial policy, a fact that didn't go unnoticed by the Germans. And because of this alliance, Germany was forced to fight on two fronts from the beginning of the War.

In the 1890's French efforts to isolate Germany became successful. They made great efforts to woo Britain and Russia into a new alliance. Britain abandoned its “splendid isolation” policy in the 1900s after having been isolated during the Boer War, and concluded the agreements (the Triple Entente, 1907), limited to colonial affairs, with its two major colonial rivals, France and Russia. It had rejected Germany as an alliance partner because it felt Germany was too weak as a counterbalance to the other powers and could not provide it with the imperial security by the Triple Entente.

Britain, under the Triple Entente, was not obliged to intervene on the sides of its allies, France and Russia. In fact, Britain had extremely good relations with Germany. At the outbreak of the war, Germany thought that Britain would stay out of the war, and indeed there was little interest within Britain in doing so even after German troops invaded Belgium and France.

What they had chosen to ignore was the Treaty of London of 1839, where Britain promised to defend Belgium.

Tensions rise

A number of events helped to both strengthen the alliances and grow tensions in the region:

1. The First Moroccan Crisis, 1905. Kaiser Wilhelm II, envious of the colonial powers, visited Morocco and denounced the French. It was a test of the strength of the recent Anglo-French entente. The visit provoked an international crisis which was resolved in France's favour. This brought France and Britain closer together. Edward VII called the German actions “the most mischievous and uncalled for event which the German Emperor has been engaged in since he came to the throne.”
2. Second Moroccan Crisis, 1911. The Germans had sent a gunboat to a Moroccan port to protect German citizens there and blamed the French for breaking a treaty. This provoked a major war scare in Britain until the Germans agreed to leave Morocco to the French in return it for rights in the Congo. Many Germans felt that they had been humiliated and that their government had backed down.
3. The Annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1908. The two Turkish (Ottoman Empire) provinces had been administered by Austria since the Congress of Berlin. Austria annexed Bosnia after tricking Russia during negotiations between their respective foreign ministers. The action outraged Serbia as there was a large Serbian population in Bosnia. There was a crisis among the Great powers and it brought Europe to the brink of war. Russia bowed to German pressure when it supported Austria and they agreed to the annexation. Russia had been humiliated and it would not be humiliated again.

Extent of the Ottoman Empire 1914

The Ottoman Empire

The great European powers were keen to extend imperialism to the Balkans, a group of countries in the Balkan Peninsula in eastern Europe. The Ottoman Empire, which had ruled the area, had lost land in the Balkans to the inhabitants: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, etc. Austria and Russia, in particular, had a great rivalry over this area, and their relations were poor. As the Ottoman Empire receded, so did Russian and Austrian ambitions soar.

This also fueled the growth of Slav nationalism among the Baltic people, especially in Serbia. Russia encouraged Slav nationalism while Austria worried that it would undermine her empire. Russia supported Serbia — which was very bitter at the annexation of Bosnia and saw herself as Serbia’s protector.

The Balkan Wars (1912 - 1913) had caused Serbia to double in size. There were growing demands for unification with the south Slavs (Yugoslavism) under the leadership of Serbia. Austria, with large south Slav population in its provinces, grew very alarmed at the threat of Serbia state.

The four great themes

Historians have classified the movements and events outlined above to classify the causes of the First World War:

Mutual Defence Alliances

As we have seen that the laudable aim of balancing the Great European Powers had caused a set of alliances to be formed. Before the Great War, the following alliances were in place:

• Russia and Serbia
• Germany and Austria-Hungary
• France and Russia
• Britain and France and Belgium
• Japan and Britain

These alliances caused a domino-effect as the allies were drawn into the conflict one-by-one:

• Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, Russia came in to defend Serbia
• With Russia mobilising, Germany declared war on Russia
• France, on the side of Russia, was drawn in against Germany and Austria-Hungary
• Germany attacked France through Belgium, dragging Britain into war
• Japan entered the war as an ally of Britain

Later, Italy and the United States would enter on the side of the allies.

Imperialism

The 19th-century European colonial powers competed against each other to bring further territories under their control. This was not just about power but the quest for valuable raw materials.

Empire colonies, 1914

Britain and France were the dominant colonialists in Africa. Germany, which was not a unified state when this race began, was deeply envious and this was a great source of tension between the powers.

Militarism

A massive arms race developed between Britain and Germany at the turn of the century. Britain had a formidable naval fleet and Germany raced to compete. Which spurred even greater growth from Britain. France and Russia too modernised their military and added to the militarism engulfing the continent. This led to the military establishment, particularly in Germany and Russia, having a greater influence on public policy.

German Nassau class battleship

Militarism provided a huge impetus for the countries to get involved in the War.

Nationalism

There was growing nationalism of the Slavic people in Bosnia and Herzegovina to no longer be part of Austria Hungary and instead be part of Serbia. With the massive growth in the size of Serbia, the people were convinced that a Slavic nation was possible and desirable.

Nationalism in the other European countries was also growing. In Germany, where citizens were subservient to the state and to the nation, the people were extremely keen to go to war and seek their revenge on the perceived humiliations they had suffered.

Nationalism ensured that the various nations believed they were superior to the others and that they would and should prevail.

The Tinderbox

Europe was a tinderbox, just waiting for a spark. That spark came from an unlikely source, but it caught fire. And boy, did it burn.

This series on World War One will be continued in Part 2, tomorrow

Previous post in this series:
The Great War Centenary: Introduction.

References:

The Guns of August, Barbara Tuchman
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/greatwar/g2/backgroundcs1.htm
https://www.historyonthenet.com/world-war-one-causes-2/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_I#German_re-alignment_to_Austria-Hungary_and_Russian_re-alignment_to_France,_1887%E2%80%931892
https://www.thoughtco.com/causes-that-led-to-world-war-i-105515

Also posted on Weku, @tim-beck, 2018-11-05