Market Brief Series / EP. 410 / 24 th Sep. 2018
On Friday, US indices ended mixed even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all time high.
Overall there is minor strength in the CHF, EUR, USD, AUD and NZD. Weakness in the GBP.
USD regained some strength as US Treasury yields held up firmly and the British pound encountered a heavy sell-off. The dollar could find some support and demand into the FOMC this week.
Oil prices rose on Monday as U.S. markets tightened just weeks ahead of Washington's plan to impose new sanctions against Iran, with U.S. bank J.P. Morgan warning of price spikes above $90 per barrel in coming months.
Gold dropped heavily on Friday and has been trading with a bearish tendency in thin holiday Asian markets at the start of the week
AUD/USD heads into the new trading week in a precarious technical stance, with Monday kicking off with a sharp downside gap for the AUD/USD after weekend headlines reported that China has snubbed the idea of any more trade talks with the US.
USD/JPY price action is being driven by momentum so taking out 112.874 will signal that the momentum is getting stronger. If accompanied by better-than-average volume then look for a possible test of the main top at 113.210, followed by 113.745.
EUR/USD retreated 0.2% to 1.1749, back below its 200-day moving average.The 20-period moving average stays below the 50-period one, helping to maintain intraday bearishness. As long as the pair fails to return to the key resistance at 1.1770, it should target 1.1680. Alternatively, a break above 1.1770 would open a path toward 1.1800.
On the data slate there’s German IFO Current Assessment, Expectations and Business Climate; UK FPC Statement Report; UK Industrial Trends Survey; US Chicago Fed National Activity Index; US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index; US 3- and 6-Month Bill Auctions and US 2-Year Note Auction.
SELL EUR/USD @ 1.1750 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.1800 – TARGET @ 1.1680
SELL GBP/USD @ 1.3100 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.3185 - TARGET @ 1.2975
BUY USD/JPY @ 112.45 OR BETTER – STOP @ 111.90 – TARGET @ 113.20
BUY CL1118 @ 71.00 OR BETTER – STOP @ 70.40 – TARGET @ 72.20
SELL AUD/USD @ 0.7275 OR BETTER – STOP @ 0.7310 – TARGET @ 0.7190
SELL XAU @ 1195 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1208 – TARGET @ 1185
SELL XAG @ 14.30 OR BETTER – STOP @ 14.60 – TARGET @ 13.65
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