I know the first time I posted about Ether here on Steemit, I had a strong feedback from the community that prompted me to change the content of my post 180 degrees. People do not want to hear what you have to say, they want you to say what they want to hear.
When the Dao disaster happened, I did what made sense at the time, bought the DAO when there was blood and sold when they supposedly saved it. But we all know it was not really saved, and the disaster caused Eth classic to come to existence.
The tale of two Ethers continues. My opinion of both is the same. What appears to be working does not mean it's actually working. Yes some people made a ton of money, and continue to do so, but that is not an indication it's working. Remember a lot of people made a ton of money from Enron before the illusion collapsed.
The road ahead for Ether will be harder and harder, as new competing projects with more competent developers show up, these projects will put the nail in Ether's coffin. I will name two projects, Qtum and EOS.
Why will Ether collapse?
As more and more tokens are created, large sums of ETH is taken out and set aside, this creates a bubble. Most of these tokens if not all have a monthly burn rate, which means they all have to dump ETH to supposedly fund their projects. We will reach a point where the ETH being dumped far exceeds the ETH being locked away. Some projects are now accounting for that by giving the developers the ability in the contract to divest a large sum of Ether if the need arises. So as we go forward one Ether bad news could send all these projects on a run to the bank and cashout of Ether while it's still worth it.
This is not an assumption, bad news happen, and with incompetent developers it happens more often. These contracts which are pushing Ether prices ever so high, will be the cause of it's crash.
Here comes the competition, as people start to realize the problems plaguing Ether code, they will migrate to safer and better options. No one denies that Amazon is chief when it comes to the cloud, but Google and Microsoft are cutting into the market share. If Amazon suffers problems in the future it won't be hard for one of the two to jump in and fill the gap, even take the lead. The same will happen with Ether, and I do not find it hard to believe that either Qtum or EOS will one day take the lead.
These projects will not have the issues of split community, and scalabilty . Both projects learned from Ether problems and are dealing with them before release. While Ether developers are way too cautious now because of the fear of another disaster. Eventually Ether will lack behind, and sink into debates similar to those taking place now on Bitcoin.
Ether overtaking Bitcoin market cap?
I do not think so. I am expecting the complete opposite, not as bad as removed for lack of interest, but not the huge success ETH fans think it will be. Too big to fail? maybe, but there is no government that will jump in and save it, and the whales who saved it the first time from collapse will have other options.