Why Will Ethereum Fail?

in ethereum •  2 years ago



I know the first time I posted about Ether here on Steemit, I had a strong feedback from the community that prompted me to change the content of my post 180 degrees. People do not want to hear what you have to say, they want you to say what they want to hear.

When the Dao disaster happened, I did what made sense at the time, bought the DAO when there was blood and sold when they supposedly saved it. But we all know it was not really saved, and the disaster caused Eth classic to come to existence.

The tale of two Ethers continues. My opinion of both is the same. What appears to be working does not mean it's actually working. Yes some people made a ton of money, and continue to do so, but that is not an indication it's working. Remember a lot of people made a ton of money from Enron before the illusion collapsed.

The road ahead for Ether will be harder and harder, as new competing projects with more competent developers show up, these projects will put the nail in Ether's coffin. I will name two projects, Qtum and EOS.

Why will Ether collapse?
As more and more tokens are created, large sums of ETH is taken out and set aside, this creates a bubble. Most of these tokens if not all have a monthly burn rate, which means they all have to dump ETH to supposedly fund their projects. We will reach a point where the ETH being dumped far exceeds the ETH being locked away. Some projects are now accounting for that by giving the developers the ability in the contract to divest a large sum of Ether if the need arises. So as we go forward one Ether bad news could send all these projects on a run to the bank and cashout of Ether while it's still worth it.

This is not an assumption, bad news happen, and with incompetent developers it happens more often. These contracts which are pushing Ether prices ever so high, will be the cause of it's crash.

Here comes the competition, as people start to realize the problems plaguing Ether code, they will migrate to safer and better options. No one denies that Amazon is chief when it comes to the cloud, but Google and Microsoft are cutting into the market share. If Amazon suffers problems in the future it won't be hard for one of the two to jump in and fill the gap, even take the lead. The same will happen with Ether, and I do not find it hard to believe that either Qtum or EOS will one day take the lead.

These projects will not have the issues of split community, and scalabilty . Both projects learned from Ether problems and are dealing with them before release. While Ether developers are way too cautious now because of the fear of another disaster. Eventually Ether will lack behind, and sink into debates similar to those taking place now on Bitcoin.

Ether overtaking Bitcoin market cap?
I do not think so. I am expecting the complete opposite, not as bad as removed for lack of interest, but not the huge success ETH fans think it will be. Too big to fail? maybe, but there is no government that will jump in and save it, and the whales who saved it the first time from collapse will have other options.

ETHEREUM-ICON_Black.png

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I'm sorry to say I think you are right on this and I used to be one of the biggest ether fans.

The DAO made me lose a lot of faith in the project.

The current token shenanigans aren't really helping to win me back either.

I also think the switch to CASPER, sharding, POS etc will lead to more splits in the community over time.

Further I don't think Vitalik is quite the genius we all believed he was. He is clever for sure but as I saw someone say on Twitter he doesn't really seem to have much knowledge of human behaviour or motivations and I would agree.

I would go as far as to say that there is a severe lack of understanding of human psychology and behaviour within the entire ethereum foundation.

This really started to become evident to me when I became involved in the DAO and they asked me to get involved as a mod.

Some of the things I heard then basically changed my opinion of the people that were at the centre of the whole ethereum movement.

Also despite people in the ethereum community mocking alternatives I think they do have certain advantages.

For example - JS is a lot easier to get developers for than Solidity and that ultimately might make those platforms more secure and more open to scrutiny.

Hope we are wrong but maybe not.

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Too bad you think features that have been on the roadmap since the beginning such as POS and sharding will be detrimental to the community. These have been planned since the beginning so if you aren't on board, you should have done some more investment research.

Ethereum is welcome to criticism and competition.

I don't agree with your assessment of Vitalik - he has some of the most levelheaded opinions when it comes to crypto-economics. He is polite, funny and extremely transparent. Only other individual whose opinion I regard as highly is Vlad Z.

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Or perhaps I disagree with you and have made a rational judgement based on my own observations - just to be clear I have followed Ether since the beginning. This is exactly like the attitude I saw during the DAO. Ultimately we will see.

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I am not condemning your assessment, I just make it clear what the original intentions were.

I am not sure what attitude you are referring to regarding the DAO. I've been a part of this since the start as well, I am not calling your decisions irrational.

In my assessment Eth today is very far from a 'proof of Vitalik'

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OK I misunderstood then.

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You should probably have a look at the wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_DAO_(organization)

And watch this

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nice!

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Imo the number 1 reason most all cryptos are doomed to fail is because they are all being "crowd funded" by people who already got wealthy on the fair winds of the social media boom. But we are already beginning to see cracks in that business model with Utube in particular. Big business (the "ultimate" big whale) was willing to come in and fuel Utube s growth but now corporations are pulling back on their advertising budgets. It's just being presented as "the liberals" against the free speech crowd to keep the new voice of the world (Utube, steemit bloggers) as far enough away from the truth as necessary so that the truth isn't obvious. The windup is that when the money dries up, the income for those creating content dries up. The stock prices of ALL social media giants are now priced as if it will continue forever....but it won't. And I just revealed the "real reason" why Utube cut back on subsidies to content providers. When Google is downsizing within its own ranks (cutting employees) the money behind some of these little ventures like steemit will be long gone I'm sure. I hope steemit survives. This is a very good site and the thing I noticed most is that none of the blogs I have read have anyone pushing an agenda for the sole purpose of enriching themselves. I'm actually surprised that there are so few cockroaches here. :-)

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I'm sure the cockroaches will come lol. Thanks for your well thought out response:)

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They will come in their droves, and we are ill prepared.

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How would be be able to get prepared?

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I doubt social media Youtubers are funding the crowd sales.

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I doubt it myself. Utubers with established followings are simply showing up when the sentiment turns into a euphoric frenzy and posting anything they want to say because they know all of their followers will upvote ANYTHING they say. I said the Silly Con Valley types who benefitted from where the funds were misallocated by the Wall St money runners are the ones who will tighten the purse strings at the first sign of trouble. Which is why I am "hoping" the first sign of trouble is like the Oct 1987 crash but 30% of the market cap of everything gets taken out in two days of trading. That'd be fun to watch. No? :-)

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Wow, glad I saw this. I've been watching Etheruem and some other coins this week as I'm starting to diversify, may lighten my planned allocation for this one a just little and put toward some others.

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Get a few ETH, just don't go super crazy about it. Unless you really, really see something big happening at some point. :)

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yeah hedging your bets is always wise, especially when there is so much growth in this sector.

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Thanks! That's the plan. I was leaning toward a larger allocation toward ETH than a few others but probably go even balance between the three or four of them.

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I think it is best to make the decision for yourself because people can easily be wrong. Always do your own research if you can.

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But of course, that is a given. Appreciate the look out though :-)

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wow that is some good insight on a very important topic, we have to be careful how our money is invested in crypto at a critical point in crypto history

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JavaScript is only used by Ethereum to access its API, and it is NOT used to create smart contracts. There is a huge difference between those two aspects and you seem to be confusing them.

Also, while they share a similar syntax, Solidity is a statically typed language, while JavaScript is the opposite. This makes them very different.

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I never stated that JavaScript is used for writing smart contracts - and btw it simply doesn't matter what programming language is used for smart contract as long as it's the compilation is fast. So Ethernet makes use both of JavaScript and Solidity. Btw for those who doesn't know - Solidity syntax is derived from JavaScript.

Innuendo is EOS supporter and they want to promote EOS this is why they are so active here on this page

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I never stated that JavaScript is used for writing smart contracts.

Then your input is just confusing and meaningless because having a JavaScript API is nothing unusual and has nothing to do with the subject being discussed.

It simply doesn't matter what programming language is used for smart contract as long as it's the compilation is fast.

If it doesn't matter (which is not true), why do you waste your time arguing about ETH using it?

So Ethernet makes use both of JavaScript and Solidity.

It also uses C++ and Go and Python and a few other languages. Solidity is used to create contracts, while JavaScript is used to deploy those contracts and interact with them. Ignoring this important distinction is an error.

Innuendo is EOS supporter and they want to promote EOS this is why they are so active here on this page.

No matter what I think of EOS, your statements about ETH are still confusing and false.

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OK - it's obvious you missed to read the original comment I answer to - it's already in there why I mention Javascript

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No ethereum uses Solidity.

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Are you a programmer - because I am - and I can tell you ETH is using Javascript

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ETH uses Javascript but smart contracts typically are programmed in Solidity. The problem is Solidity isn't a mature, safe, or good choice in terms of language. Tezos and EOS can now eat Ethereum's cake simply by having a better language and better libraries.

As far as I know, Solidity does not even have a standard library.

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Is really Javascript needed instead of Solidity for the application subject of discussion - smart contracts - hard to say yes and to agree with you guys - why should be Javascript be better FOR smart contacts

Javascript is great.. for.. web development ... for great UI and UX on browser and modern phones... but not for Smart Contracts..

I actually think that Solidity - it's better for a Smart Contract ... because of simplicity!! Not everyone can learn Javascript - but Solidity and ETH Smart Contracts yes... it's matter of a week and you can MASTER Solidity and ETH Smart Contracts...

Also - Can you please answer a question @dana-edwards

Do you think it does really matter the language used to build a software

If yes - why

Isn't more important the market and the real applications, maybe? Like working to bring EOS/ETH or whatever you are fun - on your local market... at your tabacco store.. or your supermarket... ??? These endless competition online makes no sense - if you want to promote your favorite coin @dana-edwards or @joseph / @thecryptofiend / @kyle.anderson - stop posting online and go outside in the real world and start PROMOTING and PROVIDING real TOOLS to EVERYDAY people and business... for EVERYDAY situations... it doesn't matter if is Solidity or Javascript... it doesn't matter you have 10000 followers... or make 1000$ on steemit.. if there is no market for it...or am I wrong?

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No I'm not a programmer. Doesn't change how I feel about it either way. Also you already said that.

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Science is not about feelings - if you search for that - no coin will never do good for you.

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Thanks I don't need your advice I choose to think for myself. Further it seems you are intent on spamming this thread.

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Yes, you read that right, he used the word "lawyers" - plural. Better call Saul.

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JavaScript is a programming language not an Advice. You are the only one doing spam here - posting fantasy comments and affirming ETH use no Javascript. Where's the spam I do - please stop defame otherwise my lawyers will be happy to deal with you.

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Ethereum uses JS as well - see GITHUB

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quote from GITHUB - third party element - Ethereum implements a javascript runtime environment (JSRE) that can be used in either interactive (console) or non-interactive (script) mode.

Ethereum's Javascript console exposes the full web3 JavaScript Dapp API and the admin API.

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Solidity is pretty horrible and the development tools for Ethereum aren't very good. The problem is that the alternatives will have even less. I don't know about EOS but Tezos will have to build libraries. Without libraries we cannot do anything as a programmer without reinventing the wheel. Libraries allow programmers to get things done in a safe way, following best practices, and Solidity lacks maturity in that area which led to The DAO.

JS would be a horrible choice for security but it is probably better than Solidity which is to say, Solidity isn't any better but has less tools and maturity.

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That was kind of what I was thinking - better the devil you know and all that. I think I generally get nervous when any single "basket" has so many eggs placed into it - it is better to have more competition.

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Your right. Solidity and Serpent tools were really lacking last year. They are getting much better. Visual studio support etc... EOS and Tezos (ignoring the IP issues with Tezos in the first place) will need to do lots of work to even get where Ethereum development has reached.

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Why you lose faith with DAO

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I think it was an exercise in ignoring good advice and mocking anyone that tried to point out potential problems. The whole crisis could have been averted if they had listened to people instead of being arrogant and mocking them. I don't think anything has changed since then.

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I agree with you 100 percent, people are treating Vitali as if he's a God and can do no wrong. There are many flaws in Ethereum and they will be exposed as better projects come along. L

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Well, it will fail because it's a bubble. Read my article on it https://steemit.com/ethereum/@alex-icey/is-cyrptocurrency-a-bubble

How can I have been NOT following you ? Error fixed !

Nice point of view !

This is really poorly researched, which is a shame because blockchain projects are open and transparent and Steemit should hold articles critical of competitors and other chains to higher standards, if only for the fact that they will naturally draw in people from other projects and perhaps be the first thing by which they judge Steem. In this case, they would think we can't research, analyze, or write well.

Here is an example of non-existent reseach.

The article claims: "As more and more tokens are created, large sums of ETH is taken out and set aside, this creates a bubble. Most of these tokens if not all have a monthly burn rate, which means they all have to dump ETH to supposedly fund their projects. We will reach a point where the ETH being dumped far exceeds the ETH being locked away."

The amount of ETH locked up in contracts for ICOs and tokens is not even 3% of all ETH. It is not even a material amount of ETH. Furthermore, the largest token contracts that hold ETH have barely sold or not sold any ETH.

To check to see if this analysis makes any sense, you can look at the daily trading volume of ETH and compare it to the amount of ETH locked up in these contracts and see how much market impact these token contract held ETH have relative to the market. In the last 24hours, there has been $500mm in trading volume in ETH. That is more than ALL the ETH held by token contracts. This thesis doesn't hold water.

And the research is so bad here that it makes Steemit look bad. We need to hold our articles to higher standards than this.

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Part of the appeal of Steemit is that there are only community standards. True it lets in unfounded claims etc. but the benefit is a variety of viewpoints. The community may at times upvote complete hogwash but that's a small price to pay for a system that has more freedom and flexibility than other social media.

In the future I hope to see the API lead to iterations of Steem front-ends which cater to different communities and their needs. For example I'd rather peruse articles with more science and critical thinking as opposed to conspiracy theories, religious writings and woo. Such a community could form their own filtration of the blockchain and hold their own standards.

My point being if it's submitted it's on the blockchain and that's fine. It's the filtering that needs some work so people can apply the standards they seek. If somebody wants to find what you consider poorly researched opinion pieces isn't it their right to find that here?

To be clear I'm not challenging your assertions about ETH. I'm making comment on your starting point about standards. By all means it's up to the Steem users to use their voting power to create standards.

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No worries, your comment is spot on.

It's a little different than my point, which is that for the growth of Steemit today, blindly upvoting articles that are 1) poorly researched and 2) will antagonize or put off people who would fit in well with Steemit is bad strategically. For anyone from the Ethereum community whose first experience with Steemit was this article and see how successful it was, they would laugh off Steemit as a joke.

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You can't please everybody.

Your point is taken. It's just that first of all I doubt reasonable people would blow off Steem because some percentage of the content is at odds with them. Secondly, and it's hard to phrase this properly without sounding elitist, do we really need people here who are so easily turned off? Consider that this is community generated content. You'll seldom find complete accuracy here although one would wish the best examples of researched journalism would receive the most backing.

Your call for quality journalism is commended. alas it's something that while we might assume cream will rise to the top people flock mostly to what they want to hear.

Humans.

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Well put. I am glad that someone else was also able to point out his mistakes. Not many people payed attention to my comments above.

You know what your talking about. Don't know why I was not following. Don't worry I fixed that problem.

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People hold ETH because it is a better store of value than Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency right now. It is trending up, and people expect that to continue. There is a shortage of stable tokens which requires the current situation. Also it's not easy to spend ETH, there aren't shops accepting ETH like it is currency, and taxes are high for those who cash out into fiat. Typically people spend as little of it as possible and hedge.

One thing about Ethereum is, it's market cap is likely to go up when it switches to Proof of Stake and everyone else expects similar. So it's hard to sell it for peanuts. Whether it is a bubble? Most spaces are in a bubble, real estate, stocks, housing, so why would crypto be any different from everything else in the economy?

It's also a typical bubble. We get these cycles and have seen this before in 2011 and in 2013.

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There is a difference between performance of an asset and its quality as a store of value. ETH has seen tremendous performance recently - other assets might enjoy a position as a better long term store of value.

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Yes, people, please read this and use your brain. I couldn't have written it better.

Should I make a video explaining why Eth will be bigger than BTC?

Let me know, I'll do it if you guys are interested. It'll take about 4 mins

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Go ahead, I would like to see that.

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I just made the vid, It's uploading to youtube right now. I'll post it to the comments when it loads. (I'm not on my wifi right now so It might take a while)

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thank you will wait for it :D

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I'm going to have to agree with marc on this one here. Great video this thing is backed by major players. I see them wanting ETH to grow.

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I am glad you expressed your opinion, and I respect that. The ethereum discussion will bring strong feelings from both sides of an argument. Some will think I am a hater, but I did buy ETH many times to invest in projects built on ethereum because I know I can make money that way. I will not argue against trading Ethereum to make money, in this post I just express what I think will eventually happen to Ethereum. I am human and I could be wrong.

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Hell, nothing is guarantee. Watch out for dogecoin though, I feel like it's about to surprise us all now that it's reaching Japan

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:D

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Dogecoin - what an anomaly...Who says there has to be any business model if you have the volume. Also keeping my eyes on doge to see what happens

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In the short run, More and more people and corporations are investing in Ethereum because they see the potential in smart contracts and the growth opportunity for other block chain startups to use Ethereum's tech and build products. Dumping 10,000 or 100,000s or even 1 million ethers won't do any harm as this will simply create a opportunity to buy the dip for investors.
Long term view of Ethereum is definitely here to stay, I see ethereum more like IOS ecosystem in the next 2 years.

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Dump it where? Who and what can buy that many at a time? What exchange? How would someone cash out 1 million ETH into fiat? None of these scenarios of dumping make any practical sense and are just FUD.

First show how it is possible to dump enough to crash the bubble. Panic sells from day traders and career speculators isn't going to crash the price if it is a bubble unless you believe the vast majority involved in the space are day traders and speculators. I don't think the vast majority of holders will be day traders and speculators.

If millions of people hold ETH for 4-5 years, then the price I would think will be pretty stable. People who buy Bitcoin often buy it and put it in cold storage for years. Some will buy ETH and treat it like a long term lottery ticket and not touch it for 5 years or until they retire. So with that mentality, it will not matter what the price is that day, or that month, as long term holders don't care if it's a bubble or recession as long as the space as a whole is growing.

Even a failed ETH isn't going to go away. It will stick around for 5-10 years with a high market cap in my opinion. It's just if it fails another tech will eventually acquire a higher market cap.

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I fairly agree with you Dana, Ethereum is not going anywhere for the next 2 or possibly 5 years as investors are still seeing this as a great tech which can grow significantly. Hence the dumping of large ether as suggested in this video by @majorleaguemarc will provide a great opportunity to buy the dip for long term investors. As I mentioned earlier, I see Ethereum as an IOS / Android app store for block chain startups so it's definitely here to stay!

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You make good points. I don't think Ethereum will be #2 when it meets the masses. I think Bitcoin will fade this year to Ethereum. At the same time I see in 2019 and beyond being when Ethereum begins to fade as superior tech begins to hit stride.

But I don't see Ethereum losing it's place overnight just like Bitcoin didn't. It takes years and market cap isn't going to "dump" into something else, something new and experimental. People won't just leave Ethereum just because a better tech exists, it will require Ethereum has technical/political failures like Bitcoin is currently having.

In my opinion the goal shouldn't be to stop Ethereum or to care how much money people make in ETH. What matters is bringing crypto to the masses and expanding the ecosystem, and Ethereum is only one part of a potentially trillion dollar industry. There is enough space for every one of these projects to be in the tens or hundreds of billions.

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Look the video - ETH is there to stay - Marc is right.

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Nice vid. I'm following. Follow me back for some of my crypto trades/recommendations if you want

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Your stated a strong facts:

  • The masses is introduced to blockchain with ETH being number 2.
  • It's hard to change the first impression people get
  • Big companies are backing project on ETH.

Thank you for your insight.

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great job in jumping in with your thoughts. I feel the way you do here, but im unsure, still learning, and its a new world of information, other opinions are very important to building the picture.

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Indeed

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One may be bigger than the other. They are not mutually exclusive. They are both entirely different projects with different users and use cases.

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Please let me just say that I have no experience in cryptocurrencies nor am I even a little smart but I do have strong intuition. I agree with you that one day ETH will outpace BTC but that both will be around for a very, very long time. IMHO...ok, continue on! Aloha!

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Seems obvious ETH will be bigger than BTC but that isn't saying very much. The question is will EOS, Tezos, Qtum and others also get bigger? I would think we haven't even started to see how big it is going to get. Next year is when the real bubble will begin if this is one, as we could have ETH in the hundreds of billions market cap and the space could be approaching the trillion dollar level. That in my opinion is a true bubble.

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Me too :) Do it :P

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i second @joseph too, it might let me know what i will do with the little Dogecoins have been gathering.

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Hello, I just eager to know. How do you calculate/estimate ETH price? What are factors for ETH price?

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There's an article of mine here on Steemit with detail. Basically I use current real data of blockchains. I do a projection based on previous patterns / current project status and simple facts. You can see more there https://steemit.com/ethereum/@digitalplayer/ethereum-price-prediction-2020#@digitalplayer/re-williebeaman-re-digitalplayer-ethereum-price-prediction-2020-20170601t222036220z

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Thanks for prediction. But I still have doubt if BTC will be $500,000 per coin by 2020 (in just 3 years).

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this is not why I say.

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it looks like my article is not clear... I say it will be 100 000 not 500 000

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I don't believe this. I think a market cap in the hundreds of billions is realistic and can happen in 2018 if not sooner. I do not think we will see any crypto tech with a trillion dollar market cap by 2020 because that would require true mainstream Facebook scale adoption of crypto which isn't going to happen in mere 3 years. I do see the entire space reaching 1 trillion by 2020, I just don't see Ethereum having a trillion all to itself as if these other tokens aren't there.

Ethereum will do very well, will be in the hundreds of billions, will be in it's bubble at 100 billion+, but there will be others.

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Hi @dana-edwards - thank you for comment I really appreciate it.

The reality is complex and here on this page we are just trying to keep all short and nice I think.. this is what I do... but ... let me ask... what's your analysis estimation for Ethereum marketplace by 2020 ?

I invite you to tell your vision on

https://steemit.com/ethereum/@digitalplayer/ethereum-price-prediction-2020

Thanks for reading

Happy saturday

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Which one is available on coinbase classic or the normal one?

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Coinbase has the normal one.

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Thanks buddie, i apprciate this....

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No problem man! Anytime.

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I don't use COINBASE but I can tell you that normal Ethereum is called just Ethereum - so if no classic word on COINBASE it means it's not classic.

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Thanks man, that helps...

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10k is waaaay too much, you're not thinking straight. 3-5k, though, could be a more realistic goal.

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yes sure go for it, share it to us after you finished your video

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Good luck :)

With Casper there will be again two ETH and new opportunity to earn something.

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Check out my recent post here for some more in-depth and levelheaded discussion of actual Ethereum issues.
https://steemit.com/ethereum/@kyle.anderson/more-money-for-the-early-visionaries-why-the-eth-chain-is-so-successful-revisiting-why-consensus

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The issues has been already surpassed 1 year ago - and Joseph prediction will not magically happens as someone hopes.

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@donkeypong I had no idea of these underlying issues as this is a whole new world even though I read about the main headlines this type of stuff does not show here easily for Joe average to read.

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It's sort of promotion these guys on this page wanna do for EOS coin - their coin - basically what they want to tell us is "eth is bad buy EOS" - unfortunately they are using not real facts and arguments - they are slandering ethereum to promote their coin within steemit community

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Thank you very much for your time to explain this, I very much appreciate it.

I love the tone you are using in writing this article as well as the one used to argue with. You underlined a very powerful truth many often forget to take in consideration when making a judgment on something "People do not want to hear what you have to say, they want you to say what they want to hear."

Thank you for your diplomacy, argumentation and respectful tone. I'm glad to read your article as I learned some more about this problematic that only seems to be getting bigger and bigger as time passes by.

Namaste :)

Nice post Joseph. I think ETH may be pumped to $1K before. There are a lot of ICOs - almost everyday. ETH is corpo coin - more companies are interested in crypto. The best alternative for ETH is now UBQ (priced ~$1) - huge potencial.

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I agree, I never argued against trading ETH or ETH tokens. However, long term there should be a lot of caution.

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Agreed. Good point! One of the best coin now is HUSH. I hope you agree with that :)

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David Mercer is a brilliant coder, I have to agree with that.

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Long term none of these projects are going to be the ultimate winner without significant evolution. Ethereum is limited in how it can evolve compared to Tezos and Tauchain for instance. That said, mainstream adoption will reach Ethereum and they will win in the same way Microsoft once had control of the browser. The better tech doesn't always get the users.

This post and the comments made a great read on a lazy saturday morning! Thanks for the post! @joseph! :)

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steemit.chat admin and lazy morning, I find that hard to believe :D
Glad you took a break to read this.

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hahah yeah! Sometimes I want to get away from that and enjoy reading a few good articles. I love reading stuff in general and on Steemit! :D

Glad to see such a post here - usually it is only a praise for any can someone is promoting. I have some good friends investing all their money currently in Ethereum - hope they make some money now.

Joseph , thanks for putting together your honest assessment. Nobody wants someone to rain on their parade, especially when it comes to their cryptocurrency of choice. However, a solid, realistic and honest assessment is needed - sometimes we all need to hear something we don't like. Thanks for putting this out there.

I have to disagree. Yes, there will be selling of ETH to fund projects, but if anything this is only a minor bubble. Long term, ethereum is going well above $100B market cap. Trust is the most important thing to consider, something you don't talk about. All the major corporations have their eyes on ethereum, and they're not going to suddenly switch it. The amount of development, money, infrastructure, and attention on Ethereum as a platform is simply to great to be taken over by a copycat project which no one has ever heard of. Take Bitcoin, for example. Bitcoin is technically worse than just about every single crap-coin out there - even those which are at $10M cap often operate much better and have upgrades the bitcoin maximalist would salivate at. But that doesn't really matter, because Bitcoin has trust, development, infrastructure, and money.

Ethereum is not going to be the 'blockchain to rule them all'. Saying ETH will fail because there are other untested players in the game is shortsighted in my opinion. I see a polychain future, ruled by no single blockchain.
You are seemingly blinded by the hype around EOS. Competition is good but these projects are not necessarily direct competitors.

as new competing projects with more competent developers show up, these projects will put the nail in Ether's coffin. I will name two projects, Qtum and EOS.

Competent developers? Those aren't working on ETH? Nail in coffin? What coffin? - To be serious, there is a place in the market for EOS and Qtum just like there is a place for ETH. Each project is unique in its approach to applications and consensus; tradeoffs are made for each project. Each project will have users whom want the particular tradeoffs granted by the platform. EOS won't take everyone from ETH, nor will Qtum. Both will share part of the pie.

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I am not saying Qtum and EOS will be the cause of ETH crash. What I am saying is, people will have a safer and better alternative.

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Why do you use safer and better? Can you detail how either project improves on ETH security?

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They don't improve on security but Tezos and Tauchain do improve on security. EOS improves on performance. Competence is hard to measure objectively.

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Bingo. There is a place for many different types of blockchain with varying degrees of interoperability.

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hei joseph - tell us why you think the ETH have - i quote you - "Not security, competence." ...so they have no competence in your opinion. OK - can you tell us on what and why you believe this

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So your saying dan the man is more competent than the Ethereum Foundation, Parity Technologies and the other talented EEA (multi billion dollar companies) developers? I don't want to discount EOS by any means, interesting project, but can you detail further how both projects have better competence?

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Dan Larimer (EOS) and Neil Mahi (Qtum) are a lot more competent than ETH devs yes. I am not saying they will not run into problems with their projects, but when they do they will know how to deal with it without creating a mess.

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Can you explain a bit how you came to that assessment? I don't want to put any shame to Dan's intellect but just due to sheer scale of development - ETH is very clearly the leader. Projects like Hyperledger have some big league programmers. Really not entirely sure why you hold Dan to such high regard without addressing the other talent in the space. Expecially institutional talent.

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I will not discuss DAN, but I will give you a scenario:

You are the developer of a platform X:
1- You involve yourself with a Token on your own platform that's nothing more than a money Grab

2- You are told by countless respected names, your code is Garbage, not reviewed, and has holes. Your answer: I Fixed it.

3- You release the fixed code which is still Garbage, and when the victims are robbed due to your incompetence, you compensate them at the expense of your own platform X. And now we have a split community on Platform Y as well who did not want to be taxed due to your arrogance.

4- Now imagine this same scenario happening when there is an alternative to platform X

Do not take me wrong, I was one of the people who agreed with the DAO recovery fork, but even that was done with complete incompetence, Two forks and Replay attacks ring a bell?

I repeat again I am not anti ETH, but I am against greed and stupidity. Now all this and I did not even start to explain anything about all these tokens and what's wrong with most of them. That's another story by itself.

I invest in a lot of these tokens as well, and know when to get out, because there is money to be made, but does that mean I am a believer? absolutely not, I am a cautious trader who investigates things, and wanted to point out something to the believers. There is no room for faith in trading and investing.

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This is true but it will take years to develop and then years for people to switch. It took Ethereum how many years? It took Bitcoin how many? It will take at least 2-3 years under the best of circumstances.

Sold all Ether and will put Ether value into EOS. Here's how CMC should look in six months:

  1. BTC (crypto reserve currency)
  2. BTS (crypto bank-exchange-economy-everything)
  3. EOS (?)
  4. STEEM (crypto social media and blogging)

:)

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Wishful thinking. BTC probably will be surpassed by ETH in 6 months. EOS I don't know where it will be, and Steem it really depends on the UX.

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Surpassed in market cap or user base? ETH could and likely will be pumped further and another doubling is not out of the question. But no one believes the current ETH market cap is in any way reflective of its adoption or utility. The little bit of utility it does have is rapidly obsolescing and I can't see any of the (few) applications currently being built on ETH having any long term utility. ETH blockchain tech, while amazing when it ICO'd, is now slow, complicated and limiting.

I understand there is a lot of excitement around ETH because a large portion of the community have made some good money in the past six months (myself included), but it is time to divest, take profits and reinvest in new projects. Like EOS. :)

"they all have to dump ETH to supposedly fund their projects."

What? This seems to be the crux of your argument yet I don't really see it being justified. Why must all ETH projects dump ETH to fund themselves? Many ETH tokens accept more than just ETH during their initial raising of funds. I have bought into a few ETH tokens and I did so with BTC.

The one project I bought into with ETH was Mona.co and that project should fund itself hopefully with revenue from their credit card business. There are other projects that are hopefully going to earning revenue not by dumping ETH. TaaS is one token that comes to mind. They received their initial fund and should be making money with that fund. Using the profits they will be buying up ETH to pay out as dividends to TaaS holders.

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How many of those tokens are actual real projects. How many are made by one company with different faces?

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Huh? What bearing does that have on the fact that not all projects dump ETH to fund themselves?

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I do not understand your question. All token projects have a monthly burn rate, which means they have to convert ETH to fiat to pay bills, salaries, Lamborghinis etc etc...

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"which means they have to convert ETH to fiat to pay bills"

No, not all projects have to convert ETH to fiat in order to pay bills. I gave you specific examples of projects that don't.

You've made the assumption that all projects sole source of funds is a pile of ETH they dump. Why? Take the example of TaaS they intend to BUY ETH in order to payout share holders with profits earned from their fund.

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Which would make TaaS a security. I am not talking about one token, I am talking about the majority of tokens.

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Well you made a sweeping generalization in regards to all projects. I'm wondering what you are basing this off? How did you arrive at your conclusion that a majority of projects are dumping ETH to keep the lights on? Seems more like a minority.

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because I tend to read contract code before investing. I invested in almost 70% of these tokens and I know what they all do to keep the lights on. What do you think these projects do with the ETH they collect?

Lots of ETH holders are multi-millionaire now and they can manipulate the trending of crypto businesses, I don't think they will let Ether fail.

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Lots? I don't think lots became multi-millionaires. Very few were involved in the ICO and fewer donated enough money to become a millionaire. That said, you are right, any long term stakeholder will keep adding value to their ecosystem which they hold a stake in, which they should do. Just like holders of Steem are encouraged to add value to their ecosystem.

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Ethereum was a popular ICO then, you only need 2.5 bitcoin investment to be a millionaire now.

Ethereum ICO Purchases by size

SizeNum purchasesETH
20 to 199 ETH92860672
200 to 1999 ETH20351424999
2000 to 19999 ETH263411652188
20000 to 199999 ETH39317261740
200000+ ETH4916003973

https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/

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And how many of them do you think held all this time?

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No idea, the ICO coin received has no from/source address record, thus cannot track list of ICO addresses in the blockchain.

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That means they have actual privacy. Better than Steemit.

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I believe so.

It depends if there's enough support for it to be used like currency and store of value similarly like BTC. In a way, BTC is also funding the entire altcoin ecosystem getting "locked up" in similar fashion. So I think eth could continue to perform like btc, but I've long stopped buying Ether due to some of the concerns that you've expressed..

Ethereum is core where distributed apps can be developed. GOVERNMENT of Dubai will make dubai the first city to implement their document processing on Ethereum by partnering with ethereum startup "ConsenSys".Ether is not just a currency, ether is gas. It is like you are buying gas today and stuck it in silos. If you need it for your car you can use it, if not you can sell to someone else or hold it. The price of gas fluctuate just like money or anything else, but the point is that it does fluctuate because of the usage and not only of the scarcity(bitcoin). if people will create and use dapps the value of gas will go up, otherwise it will go down. Yes, there will be a gazillion ethers in billion years, but most humans, being mortal, only have a time horizon of a few decades, and in that time window the number of ethers that will exist is small

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I hear EOS don't need gas. That alone can kill Ether. But I don't know nothing about this. Just saying. And also I didn't see any working stuff on Ethereum platform jet.

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Wow another EOS supporter - should be now obvious to everybody that you are writing about ethereum just because you want to promote EOS: but you are using lies and fiction story to achieve this. People will stay away from any coin you do guys - trust me - you are over . I will report you to steemit for your FAKE accounts

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I don't want to waste my time on you. Sorry.

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wonderful - I am tired to see so many EOS supporter pretending their EOS is better than ETH

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If I tell you what I know about ConsenSys you will $8!t your pants.

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plz share it...

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Please research that yourself. It's not hard to find the info on google.

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"If I tell you what I know about ConsenSys you will $8!t your pants."

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so what do we search for? "ConsenSys $8!t my pants"

:/

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We're still waiting....

So I read ur post. I was looking for some reason why eth cannot succeed. Your argument that ICO will be the death of eth, does not compute to me. But it does make an argument for bubbles. However markets take care of this stuff and as soon as projects create real eth economics the price may actually stabilize. So I don't buy that argument. At all.

I do think that eth has competition and will have to compete and may fall to a better version of platform. EOS sure it may kill eth. But I hate about your article that you seem to really be convinced that that eth will not make it, but don't really bring a logical argument for it.

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I did not say it will not succeed, actually in a financial sense it already succeeded. What I said is it will eventually fail because of incompetence and greed. I still trade ETH and Tokens, if you read my post about BAT you know I actually encourage people to trade it. What I am worried about is the bubble this is creating and people losing their caution. A lot of the token projects are pure money grabs. I can name a few which are not, I am big supporter of the MKRDAO, BAT, and some others but it's not those I am worried about. It's the other 70% which are nothing but vaporware + an ERC20 token Contract.