DOOMED? Why I just sold all my EOS
I think EOS is doomed. At least for the short term. It may revive itself later (and I hope it does) but for now it's got nowhere to go but down.
My assumptions for readers of this post:
- You have invested or are thinking of investing in EOS
- You understand the multi-stage token distribution of the EOS ICO (If not details are here: https://www.eos.io/ click "tokens", "Get EOS", check the boxes and click "continue")
- You have invested with the intention of making money: Believing in the idea of EOS is secondary.
So assuming we are all on the same page with the above, here's why I think it's time to sell:
Showing my working:
-EOS hit the market after its 5 day initial offering. In that first 5 days it collected 651,902 ETH ($185M) for 200M tokens so that it hit the market worth roughly $1.
-This means that to maintain this value over the course of its remaining 336 days of ICO, every day needs to net 6,519 ETH ($1.85M)
-If that were to happen, EOS would have gained a total value of $806M. Keep in mind this figure is to maintain $1 per token.
-At the time of writing the EOS market cap is $477,981,684 and the value is $2.75
-To maintain $2.75 every day needs to net about 18,000 ETH ($5M)
What this means
The hype was enough to get some big investors (and many small ones) throwing money at the ICO initially, but the hype must die off. Big investors looking to profit-take are already getting out of their existing holdings and, equally importantly, ceasing adding funds to the ICO. This is driving the price down by increasing the average token amount assigned per ETH contributed.
What I'm doing
I'm getting out.
I believe in EOS. It's going to be great. I believe it deserves our investment. And now it has it. If $400M can't pay for production of the platform they set out to create then the platform can't be created.
Then what?
I'm getting back in. The price is going to drop. Significantly. Possibly back down near the $1 point. Then I'll get back in.
This is all just my opinion and my best guess based on the evidence I've been able to collect.
Feel free to disagree, let's discuss. What do you think?
Nice hypothesis. While I haven't looked into it with any great detail it's not unreasonable to say the hype's going to die down. If they are not kicking tangible goals, being open (within reason) on their development and delivering effective value in some way then it will be struggle in the shorter to medium term. And yes, how on earth will they sustain that value in the mean time.
So many parallels with the dot.com boom which suggests many big failures to come, but out of it some sound business practices. The big questions is obviously, how do u pick them?
I guess we can only look at the teams and their previous business strategy. If they're out to do good and they are filling a need, then they can have my investment. But nobody wants to be stuck on a sinking ship.
And that old adage of course ---> never invest more than you are prepared to lose. Cheers
I bought it because I believe in their team and I'm confident they're going to deliver, who cares what happens for now.
I have invested in EOS tokens in the 5 day initial offering, i am one of those believers in the idea of EOS. When i first read about it and the persons behind, it become one of my favourite projects in the blockchain world.
I am going to hold my EOS for long time and i am not afraid of the downs comming, but for short term investments i also think it´s not the right coin.
Yeah I agree, it's an awesome idea. But they way they've structured the ICO, we are doing the project no favours by holding. We gave them our ETH, they gave us tokens. When we sell our tokens the ETH doesn't come back out - that is still funding the project. Of course if you want to hold that's ok. I might be wrong about the outlook.
This is a hot topic. It has been trailing lows since peaking. There is a strong community support for this crypto. Until the platform can be proven its all speculation. However, given Dan Larimers success this is a reliable horse to back!
Agreed, I think it's an amazing idea and it could make blockchain development the norm. But it's got a long way to fall before we see rises.
Same strategy here. I have a look at the price and will get some later when the hype is dead.
Yep, I managed to get out about 3.5x my investment and I'm pretty happy with that. If I'm being honest I was thinking bigger, but it's not to be.
What a coincidence. Only after 58 minutes your post, the https://www.eos.io/instructions page is gone and no more accessible! :)
Oh it might just link back to the main page. Click on "tokens" and then "Get EOS". check all the boxes and then it takes you to a page that details how it all works. Sorry about that, that was an oversight on my part.
Yep. Works... :)
I feel pretty dumb for participating in the ICO, I got less EOS than I could have by just buying it on the exchange, I'm down around $240.
I'm trying to mitigate this by selling my EOS when the price gets close to $3 or over, then buying more when it dips low. Made about 16 extra EOS this way, I'm going to get out soon and then see if we go below $2 and maybe buy more.
$240 is not a big deal to me because I'm mining $44 a day but obviously nobody wants to lose money!
Yeah I hear you. It's not the amount, it's the fact that we are investors, not philanthropists. I want to see a return, not just feel good about a donation. I still believe in the project and I'm sure that over the long term the price will pick back up. But for now I suspect it's on a downward trend for a while.