Price Projection of EOS ICO token - Data Analysis

in eos •  last year

I would like to share my data analysis of the EOS ICO. The ICO has been running for two days, so there is plenty of data for making some projections about the final price of the EOS token for this time window. However, please understand they are just speculations based on the current trends visible in the data. The real final price may be very different for example if the trends change or some other unexpected event arrives.

The whole analysis was done using a script I made which you can find here on github, so you can take a look and play with it if you want. I also welcome pull requests if anyone of you wants to extend the analysis further.

The analysis has three steps:

  1. Inspect all transactions sent to the EOS ICO ethereum account
  2. Find a good model for final price projection
  3. Look at how EOS tokens are distributed between accounts

The Model and the Projection

Now to the actual analysis. On the figure below you can see the cummulative amount of all ETH sent to the ICO (blue line). The big jump which happened around 24 hours after the start of the ICO looks like the investment from Yunbi exchange, which was announced by @dantheman on Telegram in advance (although it is 150k ETH instead of 120k). When not taking this single investor into account the trend seems to follow a logarithmic curve (orange line). Which makes sense for me, because this ICO is designed as a price discovery mechanism and it seems to be converging to the final price as less and less investors are contributing.

The final projection is the red dashed line which goes towards the amount of 250k ETH at the end of this ICO window, which means the price of 0.001250 ETH per EOS. The logarithmic curve was a surprisingly good fit for the data up to until around 5 hours ago. Since then there is some visible uptrend which might be connected to the recovery of ETH price. People making profits are usually looking for places where to reinvest them and EOS might look like an appealing destination. I am curious to see how the trend unfolds.

Token Distribution Between Accounts

Token distribution is a very important factor for each blockchain, because decentralization makes sense only when the influence of it's shareholders is distributed and not centralized in the hands of a few. Also the fair distribution was one of the main goals of this ICO, so let's see how it looks.

From the first figure it was visible that a major investor took part in this ICO. Their stake currently accounts for almost 62% of all ETH collected. On the following figure you can see how huge this investment is compared to all others.

If we leave out this whale and look at the other top 100 accounts participating in the ICO, we can see a familiar power law distribution. The second biggest investor is at 1% of all stake. 

The rest of the accounts and their stakes follow the same curve:

I'll wrap up with some interesting statistics:

Number of addresses taking part in the ICO: 8538
Amount raised: 75,157,924.99 USD / 242,122.59 ETH
EOS price: 0.3758 USD / 0.001211 ETH
Predicted EOS price: 0.3880 USD / 0.001250 ETH

As a future work I am planning to analyse the rest of the 351 auction windows.

I hope you found this post useful. Thanks for reading!

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This post received a 3.7% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @thinkagain! For more information, click here!

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Awesome post and thank you so much for upvoting my post [Having The iPhone But Missing The I]

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my last post contains a free gift Happy New year everyone!

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@hr1
Thanks for sharing these statistics.
I am following EOS from minute 1 and I have the information that surely interests us mutually.
About the project itself, beyond the current price speculation that we should not detract because it continues to have EOS present and visible to those unaware of the project and serves us. EOS and is my humble opinion, goes beyond everything that is did in the moment.
That's why today I only limit myself to:
An analysis of the short-term price leaving aside any type of external data.
Let's see what you think
Greetings and thanks for sharing that information.
@thomasawa

https://steemit.com/eos/@thomasawa/eos-30-01-2018-i-write-and-analyze-only-eos-usd-price

Everyone is keep talking about it, maybe I should buy some?

It's wonderful to see now where EOS has landed many. Some wonder whether it's too late to get into it, but honestly Dan's work has only just begun!

There is so many new coins coming it has become difficult to be on the "coin" I am completely lost when it comes to cryptocurrency

Very interesting post @hr1 and very useful when reading and understanding about it. Thank you for sharing and i will follow you and regards from me beginner in steemit.

Hay my friend.. please follow me and vote me pleaseee

that's really in depth! (Y)

Ernst

Interesting analysis, i am watching the coin and planing to jump on one of the auction days. By the way, you recently voted on one of my blog posts and I wanted to come and return the favour because I really appreciated it. Have a great day.

Interesting analysis, EOS is definitely a very evolutionary project.

As a future work I am planning to analyse the rest of the 351 auction windows.

I would be interested in that.

Hello I would like to buy 100 dollars in steem power

What I want to see is the promising applications from EOS. Good in-depth analysis. @hr1

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Thank you so much for this! I didn't care about the data as much I cared about how the script was made. I'm learning Python myself, and this gave me a chance to make my own script to get some basic info from coinmarketcap using their API. I learned about using the JSON module and the requests module which I haven't used before; thanks so much. You definitely got a follow from me!

Thank you hr1, I really appreciate that you're not afraid to talk the math.

t. mathematican

According to this, the price is very high at the moment. (If I'm reading this correctly)

helpful info

Thankyou for being active on my posts, very grateful for it! Nice content OP!

Great post, very helpful. Thank for sharing

This is really good info, @hr1. Just followed you. Look forward to your future posts.

I hope your right! I say about 0.55 USD

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totally wrong answer

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Apparently. :)

Great post! Excellent analysis, thank you for your effort. I love this post :)

I will learn from you hr1, I really need the tricks you give, thank you

Thank you for always paying attention to my writing.
I will be interested in your articles and visit them often.
And can I translate this article into Korean?
I want to share it with many people.

Thank you @hr1 for a good read. Very useful analytics about EOS, it did not get a chance to look at it or invest in it.

Recently I have come across this interesting Polybius crowdfunding ICO, which got up to $25 mil now and 22224 participants. They aim to create a regulated bank for the digital generation. I have even invested a bit

Thank you for sharing speculation. I really got start branching out into things other than Steem.

Hi @hr1 - I'm sorry there is no other way to contact you about this other than through a comment. I'm trying to start a contest for people that promo the Steemit network. I'd love your support if you think the contest will work. If not, no worries. Maybe I'll run it once a week? https://steemit.com/steemit/@trevorlyman/daily-facebook-bomb-mass-promotion-steem-giveaway Thank you!

The analysis looks solid, nice job.

I hear there is an exchange adding EOS on the 1st (Bitfinex I think). Curious to see how the market finds the price at that point.

Wow !!! Good analyses...

Amazing Analysis it's good to have a heads up on what a potential price could be.

Quite interesting, i'm a beginner in the worl of Cryptocurrencies, thank you for sharing your analysis. I created my poloniex account 2 months ago, and i'm beginning to learn about ICO, i'm looking forward to read your next analysis! Upvoted, Followed!

Thank you for allowing me to get lots of information. I'll make frequent visits to you.

What I wish is the success of ICOs and their offerings @hr1

Sorry... When it comes to me, you could have just as well written this post in Greek... lol... I was lost from the start, but it looks like it was very well thought out... Have a nice day...
@pocketechange

brilliant

Yes, this post is useful. thanks man! And hank you so much for your upvote! Made my day!

I wish I could reply here this helped me so much, but it is greek to me, but I can say it really looks impressive and you know what you are talking about

Thank you for your initial analysis. The final price was close to $0.85. How do you think your model failed to get close to this amount? How would you approach your model next time?

I wonder if model fitting is overkill compared to doing simple arithmetic averaging assuming trend is constant to get a forecast. For example, I came up with a price of $0.70 by doubling the amount of invested ETH halfway through the sale.

Well.. It went to 0. 80$. First window was a failure. Now they would need, 2k eth per day just to keep the 0. 25$ price @hr1

Thank you for sharing this price analysis. Nice! :)

Thank you for your effort @hr1

I think i bought my ETH too soon- at 333usd

Just upvote and following!😎👍

Thanks for providing this info @hr1.
I have been following this ICO a bit from the sidelines since I generally don't invest in ICO's.
I have been sceptic about the way they do the ICO with the windows, and my thoughts were that it could lead to investors paying wildly different prices for their tokens, since there will be no fixed price.
Which leads me to wonder why Yunbi seemingly buys all their tokens in one go.
To me it seems a bit risky, but they must have a strong belief that the price will most likely go up as the time passes.
What's your thoughts on this?

Hey @hr1 I need your help! I've nominated my Mom for steem guilds she's at 3rd Position. would you please help her by upvoting my Nomination Comment here's the link

https://steemit.com/steemvoter/@steemvoter/steemvoter-guild-nominate-a-friend-for-the-guild-vote-sunday-july-2#@tech-trends/re-steemvoter-steemvoter-guild-nominate-a-friend-for-the-guild-vote-sunday-july-2-20170702t130419421z

Thanks.. Price Projection of EOS

Thank you for the valuable information. Looks like a lot of research to inform us!

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omg he looks so crazy and funny

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LOL haahaaa

Honestly this was like a completely different language for me lol

But I can tell anyone with knowledge of ethereal and icos etc would greatly benefit from this as evident in the comment section section... keep up the great work

Thanks for voting me :) I'm gonna follow your post. It seems that you're delivering lots of informative articles !

Thanks so much for the support @hr1 Its very much appreciated!

good job...all of your posts are great.thank you dear friend<3

it was very useful
i upvoted it

i think EOS has a great potential , the price will increase
we have to invest in this technology:)
followed

I have been watching yours posts and comments @hr1. I would like to work with you on this project I am offering you an invitation of free ongoing access.

You have been invited to STEEM (SBD) Trading Bot Growth Hack Project, https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jordanlindsey/i-think-i-ve-built-something-incredible

Great analysis and I'm glad you shared the code! Did you use R for the analysis?

Your posts are very good. Me and others would also like. May your work and experience be a new science for all of us. Currently I am @rebatesteem doing steemit and steem promotion in my new post to build a great community in ACEH. Hope you also join, upvote and reesteemit. Because this action can be a big difference and make my work or information better known.

wow very detailed, may I ask what your opinion is now? did it change?

Thanks for the information, this is of great benefit ;) @hr1

This is the stuff that matters. I liked being a BI analyst. Have a theory? Support it by numbers. Proving something in mathematics is hard but being an analyst is much more fun because you are not fired or the bridge won't fall if you make one little mistake.

EOS is the futur , i think base on EOS technology , the price will skyrocket maybe 100$ ..
thank for this great post
following you

HI, Hr1 Thank you for your visiting and vote for my article. I make an efforts to understand about cryptocurrency including steem.. I need to study more and more. It is difficult to understand perfectly. But I feel that your article is so depth and helpful. Arigatou..

Nice post, thanks for sharing pleas visit me

I first came to know your blog today.
I've read your post too late.
I'm sorry I could not vote.
Thank you for sharing your analysis.
Have a happy day~:D

thank you @hr1 :-) always :-) :-*

Thanks for staistic and effort
Great analysis
Useful post
I read it just today
Have a great and sunny weekend

@hr1 really helpful post i upvoted i have found a tool to see my upvoters and i found you to b among top 10 i already mentioned you in post here is the ink if you like my gratitude please upvote thanks

https://steemit.com/stats/@diverse-thinker/tracking-upvoters-made-easy

I found this very useful! Thanks @HR1! I appreciate you :) And thanks a bunch for supporting one of my posts!

Even a computer illiterate like me understand that this analysis show the decentralized nature of the trads. The ICO: 8538 makes it pretty obvious.

I havnt integrated playing with ICOs just yet but i see why theyre attractive!! Well thought out post!

Any decent way to get the in the states? I have been looking around. Interesting to see what they will be in a year.

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Depends on what is decent for you... I think you could use a VPN

어마어마한 이더리움이 이동했었군요.
앞으로 EOS 가격도 또한 기대가 됩니다.
뛰어난 분석으로 혜안을 나눠주셔서 감사합니다.

Just a suggestion, but I really think you should start posting every day. There are many people here who respect your opinion @HR1. Including myself :) I think you have huge potential here!

Thanks again for your support on my posts and all you do :)

Awesome!

thank you so much for your education

Thank you so much for the up vote on my post!!

Another masterpiece by @hr1 ! Very nicely put together, awesome info I have to say. I need to learn a few tricks from you man.

Keep it up, you have my full support!

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That's why I linked the script I used for it! So that you can learn from it and hopefully improve it.. :)

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Btw is this script live? I'm not so familiar with Python but the are graphs there which go to 12000 instead of 8000.
Really cool stuff, I was working with R before but I do know OOP (Java, iOS)

Great Analysis !!! THANK YOU so much for your help! !! =D

Post a very useful good luck is always for you @hr1

Waw.. this program amazing
I've been waiting for news eos, but i dont not understand how to use,
I want to join in eos, how to join in eos?

Awesome and voted! This could be published as a real paper!

good post @hr1
I follow you

An excellent post! Thank you!

Thanks so much for sharing!

Great post, very helpful. Thank for sharing ~^^

Thanks for sharing
Very good article

Thanks for supporting my blog posts. Means a lot to me.

Very helpful article
Thanks you for your hard work and dedication

Thank you for sharing this! Very interesting.

@roused

Quite useful indeed. I didn't realize the sale started - it'll be interesting too see if interest will be as high as it is in the beginning. I do consider this period to be too long, myself.

Btw, thanks for upvoting my latest photo! Keep up the good work :)

Congratulations for your great analysis, keep up the journey :)

It's very good, thanks for sharing, brother! Followed!

Thanks for the post. But I'm wondering a bit what @hr1 means with "FINAL PRICE of 0.001250 ETH"

Should it be the final price after 1 year of the EOS-ICO? After all tokens was distributed?

Because since round 3 weeks we see a stable price line around 0.008200 ETH (slowly decreasing), which is quite far above his predicted "final price".

Can anyone of you bring some light in here please? :)

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Same question here :)

Plus,

On what is the EOS price / usd dependant ? Can it grow without ETH growing, as in standalone?