RE: "FIRE AND FURY" in North Korea? How about a history lesson?
Well, the video won't load for me. But I suppose that based on the title and description of the video, I'll just say, an unpopular opinion doesn't make the opinion any less valid...
I'm just gonna come clean on my opinion of United States foreign policy right now. I'm not a proponent of endless counter-insurgency wars for profit that we've been engaged in for the better part of two decades, But... I can get behind a reunification of the Korean peninsula for several reasons.
1.) It would have a clear end game. Unlike the "war on terror", which is basically an endless battle against a faceless enemy. Taking the Korean war from cold to hot would actually have a clear cut outcome.
2.) The United States dominate air superiority would basically be able to strategically knock out all artillery and strategic targets well before the DPRK even knew what hit them, allowing any ground troops south of the DMZ to move in quickly and effectively. Which leads to...
3.) The likelihood of any other troop deployment to be minimal, if at all. Assuming that most of the malnourished, North Korean military forces would pretty much defect and submit, not much unlike the Iraqi forces in the first Gulf War, it's not likely that the U.S. and South Korea would have much of a problem given that points 1, and 2 of my comment are already pretty well established.
In closing, the DPRK doesn't have nuclear capabilities like most people think. They don't have sophisticated guidance systems, ICBM's or "modern" nuclear capabilities. They're basically still in the Soviet, atomic age... Which is another reason I wouldn't see a problem with just dealing with this now. Before they do evolve into something more problematic.
Just my unpopular 2 cents...
This makes a bit of sense but I think the main problem with it is the false reporting on the situation and hyperbolic natural of the comments from the president. Which leads me think it's all a distraction technique for a bigger plan by the government. Or just a distraction to get the eyes off of Trump's terrible presidency.
Surely anyone can see that North Korea's government are full of shit and don't have the technology to hit the U.S or even sustain a war with anyone, nevermind the biggest military force in the world. They have been cut off from most of the world's trading routes how are they getting the technology and materials for all this that they promise??
Yes bringing the authoritarian government down is one thing... but to play it as another cold war in which U.S is going to be under threat of nuclear attack is just not going to fly.
(P.s I don't really know.much on this situation so sorry if I got it all wrong but this is just an outsider opinion.. I welcome other opinions as well)
My main concern is for the average citizen living in North Korea. When I say cold war, I don't mean it as a form of nuclear deterrence in which we're standing off against an enemy of equal power. Anybody who thinks that an isolated nation that's been living in a vacuum for the last 67 years is on a level playing field, is painfully uninformed...
When I say "cold war", I mean it quite literally. It's a cold war in that we're still technically at war with North Korea. We have been since 1950, we're just not engaged in combat. The war is "cold" because we've been existing under a armistice since 1953. Not a peace treaty.
So just to clarify, I don't think that we're personally under threat from North Korea. But the average citizen who lives there is...
Also, the DPRK puts much of its rations towards feeding and pampering its troops, especially their officer corps. There might not even be defections to US and instead a kind of Mercenaries-style scenario where different generals become warlords of their own respective territories fighting us and each other.
Also, what about China? They might very well just send in the tanks. What are we going to do if we meet them around Pyongyang? Are we seriously going to get into a war with China? There are lots and lots of things to think about. I don't think it'd be so cut and dry.
Your thoughts, Joe?
I get what you're saying. Keep in mind that my analysis is a best-case-scenario. However, I don't think that the average, malnourished and mistreated citizen of North Korea will dig in and fight against the south if it came down to it.
They don't have modern weapons or firearms to fight with. If they did, it's likely they would've used them in food riots long before now. Like you said, they have weapon caches that would likely be distributed to citizens, but I think they'd be apprehensive about doing that as well out of fear that citizens would turn against them.
As far as the propaganda goes, most of the citizens in the DPRK have lived their entire lives in a vacuum, but they still hear rumors about life outside of their borders to the south and to the north in China as well. That's why people defect. Even active military, like the soldier who escaped a few months back whose body was riddled with parasites.
I suppose I also should've prefaced my original comment with my belief that we not do anything regarding North Korea without a green light from China. Concessions would be made with them regarding borders, and it would be likely that China would benefit by annexing a certain portion of the north.
Also, just to make it very clear... I don't support nation building, but I think the citizens of the DPRK deserve a better life than the one they currently have. And one with more opportunities like their neighbors to the south, and honestly, even their neighbors to the north in China.
Joe,
Yes, China would probably get the North of the North (of the north of the north ;^) as a concession.
Yes, you're right that DPRK citizenry might simply not care enough about the "Dear Leader" to fight and die for him. After all, their food comes mostly from private markets, and not state distro systems anymore.
And now that you mention it, I doubt Kim would trust his own people enough to open up the caches and hand out the AKs even in case of invasion.
Perhaps the real-life scenario would be somewhere in the middle? Most DPRK forces falling rather quick, and a not-insignificant number of well equipped, determined holdouts spread around the country in bunkers and loyalist areas?
This document is 20 years old, https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nkor.pdf but it's a USMC manual on DPRK equipment, troop positions, strategy, etc. Basically they concentrate 75% of their forces near the 38th parallel, which leaves them open to an invasion from behind. Except China is behind, and they have a very dense air defense network even for modern aircraft to penetrate.
Hopefully we avoid violence though and work with China if it comes to toppling Mr. Un, I agree that the people of the DPRK deserve better, but the price to us has to be worth it for us to make the required sacrifices.
Got a link to an article or something on the parasite-ridden defector? I'm always interested in those people... interesting stories they tell!
-Cheers!
It's always nice to have a reasonable discussion.
-Cheers to you!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/north-korean-defector-parasitic-worm-parasites-south-korea
Would it really have a clear end game? Look at Iraq. That may have had an ancillary link to the "war on terror" but fundamentally it was a war against a nation state. The defeat of the Iraqi military and Saddam Hussein didn't end the conflict, instead an extended insurgency ensued, followed by secretarial violence, followed by more insurgency, followed by ISIS. Iraq isn't some special case either, it happens all the time, a powerful country occupies a weaker one, they defeat the weaker country's army and government, but former military forces and civilians begin an insurgency. Also you can bet that some North Koreans will forego guerilla resistance and head over to the United States to commit terrorist acts.
We may have air superiority but I've only ever heard that there's no way of knowing where all of their artillery is and disabling it, and in any scenario at minimum there would be hundreds of thousands of South Korean civilian casualties from the shelling of Seol. The strength of their nuclear arsenal is debatable, but I have no doubt they could hit a nearby target such as Seoul, Guam, Japan or Hawaii. Even if all they take out is Guam that will mean hundreds of thousands dead making it the deadliest bombing in US history. I could also see them simply firing a nuclear missile into the upper atmosphere and detonating it to create an EMP that will black out South Korea, Japan and parts of China. Since North Korea has very little electrical infrastructur as it is they'll have little to lose while their neighbors will suffer dearly.
I highly doubt defection would be common among North Korean troops. You can't compare them to the Iraqi military. Even under Saddam Iraqis had a fair amount of contact with the outside world. Whats more by the time of the first Gulf War there still were millions of people who remembered a time when the US was an ally to Iraq during their war with Iran. During the Second Gulf War there were millions more who knew that they could safely surrender as they did in the first.
North Korea is a whole different ball game. From childhood their people are fed nothing but propaganda about how the United States is the ultimate evil in the world hell bent on destroying North Korea. War crimes from the Korean war are exaggerated beyond anything that could believably have happened. They have a museum which teaches how American soldiers drank the blood and ate the flesh of women and children. Travel outside the country is extremely restricted so almost no one has any competing information. I guarantee the overwhelming majority of their soldiers believe if they try to surrender or defect to the Americans they'll be horrifically tortured and killed. What's more their families will be punished for their defection. If you want a model for how resistant they'll be to surrender I'd look to the Soviets or the Imperial Japanese, not Iraq.