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RE: "FIRE AND FURY" in North Korea? How about a history lesson?
- The end game if we attacked the DPRK would be quick if regime change worked. Indoctrination runs deep, and people might refuse to annexation to the South.
- A lot of DPRK military infrastructure is buried, hardened, and hidden. It's also extremely numerous. And obsolete. I doubt we could cleanly knock it all out in a first strike.
- I heard once that the estimated cost to our troops would be 50,000 lives. The DPRK is built to dig in and fanatically resist an invasion. The people, rather than welcome us, might see the falling bombs and actually believe all that propaganda they're fed about the "evil Americans" and then take up arms. Universal conscription and plenty of small arms caches makes the likelihood of fighting a Red Dawn style invasion north of the 38th parallel very, very likely.
- Their nuclear systems are technologically behind-the-times, but then again it only takes a single undetected suicide bomber with a nuke to take out NYC. Would we risk that?
Also, the DPRK puts much of its rations towards feeding and pampering its troops, especially their officer corps. There might not even be defections to US and instead a kind of Mercenaries-style scenario where different generals become warlords of their own respective territories fighting us and each other.
Also, what about China? They might very well just send in the tanks. What are we going to do if we meet them around Pyongyang? Are we seriously going to get into a war with China? There are lots and lots of things to think about. I don't think it'd be so cut and dry.
Your thoughts, Joe?
I get what you're saying. Keep in mind that my analysis is a best-case-scenario. However, I don't think that the average, malnourished and mistreated citizen of North Korea will dig in and fight against the south if it came down to it.
They don't have modern weapons or firearms to fight with. If they did, it's likely they would've used them in food riots long before now. Like you said, they have weapon caches that would likely be distributed to citizens, but I think they'd be apprehensive about doing that as well out of fear that citizens would turn against them.
As far as the propaganda goes, most of the citizens in the DPRK have lived their entire lives in a vacuum, but they still hear rumors about life outside of their borders to the south and to the north in China as well. That's why people defect. Even active military, like the soldier who escaped a few months back whose body was riddled with parasites.
I suppose I also should've prefaced my original comment with my belief that we not do anything regarding North Korea without a green light from China. Concessions would be made with them regarding borders, and it would be likely that China would benefit by annexing a certain portion of the north.
Also, just to make it very clear... I don't support nation building, but I think the citizens of the DPRK deserve a better life than the one they currently have. And one with more opportunities like their neighbors to the south, and honestly, even their neighbors to the north in China.
Joe,
Yes, China would probably get the North of the North (of the north of the north ;^) as a concession.
Yes, you're right that DPRK citizenry might simply not care enough about the "Dear Leader" to fight and die for him. After all, their food comes mostly from private markets, and not state distro systems anymore.
And now that you mention it, I doubt Kim would trust his own people enough to open up the caches and hand out the AKs even in case of invasion.
Perhaps the real-life scenario would be somewhere in the middle? Most DPRK forces falling rather quick, and a not-insignificant number of well equipped, determined holdouts spread around the country in bunkers and loyalist areas?
This document is 20 years old, https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nkor.pdf but it's a USMC manual on DPRK equipment, troop positions, strategy, etc. Basically they concentrate 75% of their forces near the 38th parallel, which leaves them open to an invasion from behind. Except China is behind, and they have a very dense air defense network even for modern aircraft to penetrate.
Hopefully we avoid violence though and work with China if it comes to toppling Mr. Un, I agree that the people of the DPRK deserve better, but the price to us has to be worth it for us to make the required sacrifices.
Got a link to an article or something on the parasite-ridden defector? I'm always interested in those people... interesting stories they tell!
-Cheers!
It's always nice to have a reasonable discussion.
-Cheers to you!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/north-korean-defector-parasitic-worm-parasites-south-korea