A Tsunami Is Brewing And Few Are Paying Attention!!!!
The world is changing at a rapid rate yet few realize this. Even the masses on a site like Steemit, who claim to understand, tend to not realize what is taking place.
This is evident by their response to certain things. It is easy to see beliefs and ideology shape people's judgment. I understand how this can be. It is not easy to get rid of long held ideals, ones that were most likely taught to one by his/her parents. Nevertheless, for all the calls for freedom, we tend to be products of our environment. Unless one is willing to take the time to fully explore a belief, it is simply easier to hold onto it.
I once heard it said that "the past does not equal the future".
This was a quote in reference to personal development however, I find that it applies to what we are witnessing today. What took place in the past few decades has little bearing upon what we are going to see tomorrow. In fact, many of the beliefs that were pertinent then are useless today. The world is changing too quickly....that is what it ultimately comes down to.
Technology is at the core of all we do. Unless you are one who is on the outskirts of the world, we are all immersed in technology. Heck, even someone like that is on the Internet or using a smart phone. It is everywhere and growing at an exceptional rate.
Speed is what makes this situation unique. I recall the fight the UAW put up in the 1980s against automation. They used every tactic in the book because they knew it would cost them jobs. This bled into every area of American manufacturing.
We often hear the mantra that we manufacture nothing anymore. Remember all those calls about jobs being outsourced. It is true that American manufacturing jobs declines by over 1M the past 20 years. However, output shot through the roof.
![](https://steemitimages.com/640x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmdsJQKu9fQ7n2hAdUXAXNoitJRXr6vQ2BTcP8Msc6HRXL/image.png)
There goes one belief. American manufacturing is at an all-time high yet jobs are down. How did that happen? Automation.
Of course, do most people care about a bunch of blue collar workers in basically rural areas other than at election time? Most likely not. This is why there has been no action regarding the age of automation that is upon us.
What is interesting about that chart is it covers decades. That was the normal transition time in the past. Robotics is a difficult field because of the need for dexterity. It is a slow, expensive developmental process usually requiring huge money to do a simple, repeatable task. Over time, the investments pay off. Nevertheless, this can take years, hence the decades long sloth of human replacement.
As I said, the past does not equal the future. The tsunami that is brewing has little to do with robots. Each time I see an article posted with a title such as "Are Robots Coming For Your Job", I shake my head knowing this was written by someone who does not see the danger. The move to robotics, while impressive, still occurs over decades. Things appearing now were started in the 1990s.
Instead of asking if robots are coming for the jobs, it is better to focus upon software. This is the elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about. It is also the reason why tens of millions of high paying jobs are going to go away.
Don't believe me? Here is an article about a survey done with the largest law firms in London. Half of those firms believe AI will lead to job cuts. And that is based upon technology today. Imagine asking this question in 3 years when the AI these firms are using is more advanced.
The legal profession is one that generates a lot of money. Jobs in that field tend to be high paying, white collar. Yet, here we are seeing a potential eradication of many of them. Also, attorneys starting out often work in fields such as legal research as a means of learning the "trade". No more. That is all being automated.
One of the challenges is even when people see the problem, they couple it with confusion. Take this paragraph from the article...
“However, it is too early to say that there will not be other roles to replace them. New roles are developing as technology encroaches on the attritional space. They include data scientists, those working on AI and predictive analytics, as well as legal services software developers.”
Are you kidding me? Data scientists and legal services software developers? On what planet are a bunch of displaced paralegals and junior lawyers going to be qualified to fill these new jobs? How many technically inclined attorneys do you know? I have not met too many. There is a reason why most law firms outsource their IT work.
Western countries tend to turn out a lot of people in the legal and financial industries. These are the two biggest fields for people coming out of school. Unfortunately, having a bunch of financial and legal experts going forward is not a great thing since these are two of the fields that are facing AI penetration. They both produce an enormous amount of data that can analyzed using pure computational power. Humans cannot go through millions of cases but software can.
Here are a few things that I feel safe in saying will happen within 10 years.....
- 3D printing is going to eradicate many manufacturing jobs as the process becomes even more automated.
- Products are going to be delivered autonomous..first with vehicles then with drones
- Driving jobs will be drastically reduced
- The fields of finance and accounting will be dwindled down to employing very few especially as the older generation dies off.
- The medical field will get smaller: autonomous vehicles will reduce the number of ER visits (in the US that is over 50% of the visits) while automation of health records, robotic surgeries, and automated monitoring reduces personnel.
- Blockchain will destroy millions of "middlemen" jobs through the stream-lining of supply chains and removal of layers in finance.
- The 10 year decline in paper production will continue wiping out the copier/printer industry.
- Real estate will be completely revamped through the use of blockchain and virtual reality meaning we will see the reduction of agents, title companies, and insurance agencies.
- Customer service will go 90% bot with people only a small percentage of the inquiries.
Does any of this sound far-fetched? If so, scour some of the technology pages and you will see that it is not. Much of this is already happening, in part, as I type this. Some of these technologies are in the early stages. However, give them a couple of years and you will see their power unleashed.
Hence my use of the term tsunami.
And then what happens? How does society handle tens of millions of people suddenly out of work? What does it do when entire industries are wiped out? Is everyone going to miraculously be able to get jobs as Virtual Reality program developers? How many people in the western countries have the basics in computing, mathematics, and the sciences to even consider a switch like that? My observation is very few.
Fortunately, I do not believe all is lost. In fact, cryptocurrency is going to be the one thing that really assists in preventing a total collapse. The fact that millions of people are going to be part of the tokenized world means there will be plenty of money to go around. Instead of dealing in the scarcity that the present system operates under, we see the prospect where abundance is coming forth.
The challenge is most people scoff at this. All of us who tried to explain cryptocurrency to others quickly found out what people belief. The FUD does not only come from people on television. Talk to friends and family to get the same response. It is a fraud; it is worth nothing; that is a scam; you will lose all your money; etc...
Hence we are back to the same question: what does society do when tens of millions of people are suddenly out of work?
Based upon the present belief system, let them starve appears to be the answer.
By the way, do you want to know how far away this is from becoming a reality? The answer is one recession.
![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaaPQimeviFbSRytg5vF9riwKaD93kJHU7ZhYhaVFy1U4/image.png)
Things are going well for the global economy (at least on the surface). The banksters were able to prop things up to look nice for many. They put out glowing reports that tell us things are growing and getting better. Of course, this all favors Wall Street. They could care less that it is debt that fuels their increase in revenues and profits. As long as the quarter is good, that is all that matters.
The problem is that once those numbers slow down, cutting starts. And the first place corporations cut is payroll. Get rid of someone today and that is reflected in the numbers two weeks from now when no check is issued. Instant savings.
What is really going to be a kick in the pants is, since we are in the midst of a technological explosion, the corporations have an alternative. They can invest in R&D which means that, upon recovery, they do not need to hire nearly as many people back. People were calling the recovery after the financial collapse 10 years ago a "jobless recovery". Well, they haven't seen anything yet.
The oil industry gave us insight as to how these mega-corporations operate. When the price of oil plunged, layoffs took place all across West Texas. Hundreds of thousands of people were let go. Two years later, prices recovered some. The problem was that the cost for these companies to get oil out of the ground dropped from $60 to $35 a barrel. How did they do that? Automation. This resulted in only about half the people being hired back when the market improved.
Perhaps you don't care about a bunch of roughnecks in West Texas. However, when cashiers, paralegals, accountants, drivers, manufacturers, financial analysts, insurance adjusters, line cooks, billing agents, customer service reps, and sales people start to be laid off in droves, maybe that will garner some attention.
So what are people going to do then especially since most households require two incomes? What happens when it is your wife or husband who is laid off and cannot get a replacement job?
I guess there is always the local supermarket.....
Oh wait, Amazon is working on automating people out of that field too.
Personally, I am not worried...being involved in cryptocurrency makes me an early adopter of the tokenized world. This might be the only buffer most people have.
For the rest, a surfboard might be required since this could get nasty.
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Ahhh my friend, yet again another excellent article. I agree with you and in fact I think it will be much worse than what you are talking about. People are so dependent upon the system for their needs, when they can no longer afford to pay for them they will be in a position where they will enslave themselves just to be rescued.
However, if people started working on getting off the grid, UNGRIP and take full responsibility for their lives, suddenly it matters not what the corporations do. We can take back control of the economy through a paradigm shift of realizing that automation, AI and other technologies may be leveraged for the corporation, but there is still value, satisfaction, growth, safety and security in doing the work to build a healthy relationship with Mother Earth. That way, when the recession hits, people can easily take care of their own needs.
Cryptocurrency, blockchain and other technologies that are decentralized, distributed out outside the control or influence of the corporation will provide a wonderful tool to help us facilitate that transition.
Not that I'm against automation as I use some here on the homestead that we built, but rather I am for self-sufficiency, self-governance, self-reliance, peace and freedom. Those cannot be achieved in their automated corpratocracy slave world where the privatize the profits and place the burden and debt upon the public.
I think that tsunami you speak of is going to be a world wide flood and people need to build the skills, experience and infrastructure to have a healthy relationship with that one being who provides for ALL our needs - Mother Earth. That takes time and the time to start is now.
I believe we're headed toward cloistered communities / city-states, and homesteading skills plus capability of using AI will be important factors in determining the winners and losers. A majority of people cannot or will not take care of themselves - much less provide for themselves, and I'm real scared about that.
This has been @holsturr, thank you for reading!
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Because I had an accident 2 years ago I am not able to do the work I did before. After sitting on the couch for months and months I found out about Steemit. And of course other cryptos. It might just be that that was actually the good thing coming out of something bad. (And hell, I want all people who are limited because of physical / mental boundaries to have an escape from a society that doesn’t know how to handle everyone that doesn’t perform on average!)
You bring up an excellent point @soyrosa. Congrats on turning a negative into a positive. It is possible with crypto. STEEM is a wonderful way for people to start to turn the tide...I think Manna is also going to be another one that will help many people...especially those on the lower income scale in third world nations.
There are going to be a lot more projects in the future....utility tokens are going to really help out billions of people.
Thanks. And yes. Tokenization of basically everything is very much on my radar by now. IRL I still feel alone in this 'discovery', but I'm glad I'm not alone in pioneering on Steemit at least ;-)
Yeah well talking to most people at this point about cryotocurrency is like talking to the wall....few seem to get it.
They will since it is not going anywhere....and when people are sitting pretty after amassing a few utility tokens, others will take notice.
I am also somewhat reduced in my abilities due to an accident @soyrosa & @taskmaster - and my quietness over the past month or two (due to 3D distractions mostly) in spite, I am still eager to get Project Magic Dragon (linked in my reply to @bananamemos below) off the ground. It is a trading facility incorporating a UBI that will enable non-productive members of society to participate fairly as members of a trading community.
It was designed primarily as a means enabling survival of the individual in general without government or corporate interference, but will by its nature serve as a bulwark against the onslaught of technocracy. I need your support and assistance though in refining, developing and launching it!
I am going to read more about your project later @clicketyclick! Thanks for sharing :-)
Thanks @soyrosa - I suspect I started off way to seriously for a newcomer, before befriending even a single soul!
I've been toying with the concept for years before though, in a rather different form. The blockchain environment offers new avenues.
There are several sprouting up now. I know @Dan, the creator of the steem platform, is working to create a sort of second generation steemit on the EOS platform once it goes live, and I've recently tried out Minds.com. While their token rewards system is still in testnet phase, I am very impressed with how it has surpassed steemit in sheer numbers and how in a week's time I surpassed in subscribers to what it took me 6 weeks on steem and now 12 days in nearly 13,000 views, which is probably the weakest aspect of steemit. Still steemit seems better on the blog options. Competition always plays well into the hands of the users. :)
Wow @taskmaster4450 you hit a home run on this one! You might consider changing your blog banner to include "Futurist". Really. Indeed there is a tidal wave of change already sweeping over us and even though we are immersed in it very few realize we are already in deep water and what it portends.
You have asked one of the most important questions of our times...what will we do with all the unemployed or underemployed or those who don't give a rats ass and just want to stay locked into their smart phones or VR? Humanity has never faced a transition of this magnitude before. You want to make a million bucks here on Steemit? Keep addressing this enormous transition just like you have today.
And you've, once again, strengthened my commitment to blockchain and crypto's.
Thank you for this most excellent post. For those who have eyes to see, and ears to hear, the power of the coming Tsunami tells them things that those who sleep will never know.Blessings. Resteemed.
Change happens.
I believe we will have to completely re-invent the economy. Distribution of wealth will be a necessity. If that doesn't happen, well, we've seen what happens when the poor become too numerous and feel like they have nothing to lose.
You made a lot of really good points for why I think we need Universal Basic Income. And we needed it yesterday, not a few years from now.
Please tell me what you think about my Project Magic Dragon idea @bananamemos - maybe we can whip up a perfect UBI system there. Not something I can achieve on my own though...too little manpower and too little dough! And by what @taskmaster4450 tells us it is a matter of importance to give it a go!
@clickdetyclick It sounds like there are elements of barter, gift economy and time banking in the Project Magic Dragon proposal... all worthwhile initiatives. We know that the current economic paradigm is falling, and that new ways of interacting with others' goods and services need to be implemented.
Thanks for taking a look @bananamemos. There are similar insular trading platforms that have been operating successfully for many years. (Search "Cape Town Talent Exchange" to see an example.) What I want to add to that concept is 1. to have the exchange decentralized. 2. to include a UBI. 3. to relate the value of the trading token to a fixed quantity of energy by consensus (which should be possible in a closed environment circulating a limited number of tokens).
The quantity of energy I have in mind is one unit of electric energy, with which most people are familiar. Having a means of transferring value with a specific value by consensus amongst participants takes speculation with it out of the picture, and leaves it to be little more than an accounting tool and a temporary store of known value. The idea is to give traders constantly renewed purchasing power, enabling them to trade with real goods and services - which is the primary goal of all currencies. Taking guesswork and worries about the value of the token out of the equation brings in a sense of security and a constantly renewed known amount of purchasing power with which participants can become familiar an plan around. This sense of security about their most basic means of survival will bring peace of mind, allowing individuals to flourish otherwise.
The UBI quantity is critical and should not be more than what is necessary to survive on, thus inspiring the creatively ambitious to remain productive and trade on this exchange for profit, accumulating fixed assets as a means for growing wealth.
I guess launching the project purely as a game may be a good way of introducing it. By its nature, it can then evolve into being a trading platform for real goods and services, as players become aware of its functional value as such - at their own risk.
Some novel ideas, but worth trying I think!
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I'm right here on the same page with you. It is troubling how few see what is coming, a mass-scale replacement of both blue-collar and white-collar jobs by automation, and how few are prepared for it.
Then you have the probable devastating global devaluation of fiat, with a giant human population that seems unable (frighteningly, perhaps incapable) of understanding or using crypto. I run into this daily.
A UBI will only work for so long, because it will never be enough to live on - only enough to die slowly and early on.
Unfortunately, the people at the top not only want this (a cataclysmic reduction in population), but they're also dead-set on not letting humanity as a whole go off-world.
We've got a helluva fight ahead I think, but I feel hopefully, ultimately, we're gonna be ok as long as we remember that when we meet the new boss, it's gonna be the same as the old boss, or whatever The Who sang :D
This has been @holsturr, thank you for reading!
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My website, | holsturr.com | Thanks again! 😍🌷
I offer the following for counterpoint. The gist is that productivity growth has been slower in the last 10 years or so than during the golden years of 1940 to 1980.
http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/job-loss-in-manufacturing-more-robot-blaming
Even if automation prevails, the distribution of wealth from productivity gains due to automation are a matter of public policy, not necessarily a reflection of how the markets work.
I am hopeful that cryptocurrencies and other technologies are allowed to provide for a wider distribution of wealth so that more of us may prosper. I have taken a particular shine to you "age of abundance" theme (just think "presearch" and "manna"). I think that efforts such as those are going to be next to impossible for public policy to circumscribe.
The millennials are growing up and finding their political power and voice. When the old guard dies off, it is possible that the Protestant work ethic, fixated on reward and punishment, may die off, too. In such a political climate, it is possible that a more compassionate and equitable public policy regime may take hold.
One can hope, right?
Yes we can hope.
I agree that the millennials look at the world in a totally different way than the previous generations. The older crowd dying off will offer a different voice.
Once factor in all this is, in the US, the second half of the baby boomer generation is ill-prepared for retirement. How will that affect their viewpoint? And what will another bankster created crash do to the psyche of people? The last one, fueled by real estate, cut deep....
Absolutely. One can hope that
Basic income.