Why Ripple Token (XRP) is Terribly Overvalued

in #cryptocurrency4 years ago (edited)

XRP token and Ripple Payment Protocol are Different

Ripple is a global settlement network which allows banks to transfer money and settle international payments in different currencies. As more banks use Ripple protocol, it is becoming more valuable.

Contrary to popular belief, XRP currency is different than the Ripple protocol. XRP is a token or a native currency that works under Ripple Transaction Protocol. XRP protects the Ripple network from DDOS attacks, and prevents spam.

Do Banks really invest in XRP?

Banks do not invest, buy or hold XRP tokens.

There are banks working with Ripple company, and they may be making payments to the Ripple company per their use of the Ripple protocol.

Real Value of XRP

Certain amount of XRP is being destroyed to cover transaction fees. Currently, the default transaction fee is 10 drops (0.00001 XRP).

As an example, only 10 XRP tokens need to be destroyed if a bank needs to settle 1 million transactions in one year.

To have a better understanding of the real value of XRP, we need to know its destruction rate.

From the inception of XRP to 10/12/2019, only 0.00867% of the entire supply has been destroyed. On the other hand, there has been no significant change on the destruction rate over time.

With this rate, we will need around 70,000 (seventy thousand) years to consume all XRPs. Sadly, none of us will live that long. In reality, it is very likely that technologies like Ripple network will be outdated and useless 1000 years from now.

In other words, it does not make any sense to invest in an asset with the assumption that it has a chance to become scarce thousands of years from now.

Why Did XRP Skyrocketed?

To summarize:

  1. Majority of people do not understand that Ripple payment protocol and XRP are different. When a private investor invests in Ripple company, people assume that the valuation of XRP should also increase. However, XRP token's valuation and Ripple company's financial situation are irrelevant.

  2. Due to the fact that there are 100 billion XRPs created, the XRP price is low compared to other cryptocurrencies. As a result, new people who invest in cryptocurrencies ignore the market cap, and they think that XRP is very cheap and should go way higher.

  3. As Ripple company holds the majority of XRPs, the amount of XRPs in circulation is significantly low.

  4. Since XRP price increased to unexpected levels, those who shorted XRP got liquidated and had to buy back from higher prices. These short squeezes caused the price move even higher.

  5. With the price increase, the volume also increased to astronomical levels. As such, more exchanges listed XRP.

  6. Ripple company has been doing a great job on getting their token listed on almost all major local exchanges. Local exchanges are the place where new users begin their trading activities, and it is always easy to attract those newcomers by announcing partnerships with banks.

  7. An important portion of the XRP circulating supply is restricted, which means most of the XRPs reported as circulating can not be moved. As a result, XRP market cap has been wildly overstated and does not reflect the truth. This overstated market cap has undoubtedly led many institutional investors to invest in XRP.

Source: https://messari.io/article/messari-research-ripple-s-market-cap-is-likely-overstated-by-6-1-billion

I hope this article will be helpful.

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Reading this now, would be interesting to hear your opinion of XRP for the coming months, if you've stayed the same with your opinions or different.

me too. I am keen to hear your (@primeer) new opinion.

Despite doubling trading XRP I personally still agree with most of OP's opinions and believe XRP is overvalued.

Thanks a lot for your descriptive post about Ripple.

I would love to see a follow-up to this article in the New Year. The market placed has changed drastically and "the people" have decided that XRP is worth something to them. Are they just ignorant, or is there real value to the coin?

Haha same here, I'd love to hear a new perspective. I went through the Ripple developer site, and everything the author mentioned is true.

XRP price has skyrocketed way high ... but it's due to rumors of Coinbase wanting to list it.

Still not going to buy XRP.

Wait until you see XRP blow up now that Western Union signed on. There is more to come. Market cap of XRP is only 7% away now from the other 1,290+ coins out there that total 22% of crypto market cap. BTC now at 36%. XRP will be #1 Market cap coin in 2 months or less.

I'm sorry to say, but that will never happen.

What will never happen? #1 Marketcap? Ok, we'll see. Many said #4, #3, #2 would never happen.....we'll just have to see. I believe BTC is going to get shorted and wrecked here especially due to its speed and cost as well as the Wall Street boys messing with it. XRP has a bright future in my opinion. I am in since $0.17 and $0.20 so I am happy with where it is at and anything over $0.50 is cream to me.

Same. Very reasonable analysis. I'm following you. :)

Very interesting summary about ripple. I learned a lot from this article. Followed for more analysis.

Same. Very nice analysis. I'm following you. :)

So if i understood well, the price of XRP is not going so far like bitcoin or other cryptocurrency did ?

Where do I short tokens?

Ripple is the king of shitcoins. If you are into Ripple, you are against the very ideology of blockchain, against free market and freedom in general.
Choose the future you want to build with your wealth wisely or crash with your friends banksters. Natural selection... ;)


well said

that is completely wrong. Ripple is the company. XRP is decentralized, public, and everything that blockchain STANDS FOR. Nodes are maintained by ANYONE.It is also OPEN SOURCE.

Bitcoin will be using centralized nodes for its lightening network, and has pool mining which is centralized 101, but you think xrp is against the original blockchain ideas?? you are cearly just repeating info too lazy to do your own research.

Ripple labs is using it for FI's, but xrp will be used for merchant payments, p2p payments, everything we see these other SHIT coins trying to obtain. XRP settles instantly, and does not waste electricity. It out performs any other coin, and it only cost pennies tor send ! It will be the top crypto. People who cant understand the difference between a company who makes a software the uses a crypto, and an actual digital asset, will loose out. Natural selection I guess.

You are correct, many investors don't realize that Ripple and XRP are two different entities. However, I do disagree with you in regards to XRP being overpriced. Right now Ripple is in process of getting banks to utilize their software. Banks may utilize Ripple's software and opt to never use XRP (Ripple's cross-border cryptocurrency) However, banks that decide to use XRP will be able to complete inter-country fiat transfers in 4 seconds. If banks decide to use another inter-country payment type they will lose some of the speed XRP provides. Next, while XRP is considerably larger in total units circulating when compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum this is so because Ripple is not promoting this coin to individual investors but rather to banks. Banks across the world move trillions of dollars among their facilities in any given year. If banks decide to adopt XRP as their inter-country transfer method 100 billion XRP will be needed. The below link shows total dollar figures for money movement just in the US (Fed Reserve).


Also, everyone seems to indicate that banks will not adopt the use of XRP. Once Ripple hooks banks with their block-chain technology their secondary push (besides speed) will be the cost savings associated with using XRP. Ripple will be able to effectively lower bank remittance cost by 60%. See below link.


Also, the link below signals and proves that banks are willing to try XRP (speed and cost reduction). Cuallix, and national bank in Mexico, is the first to utilize XRP as a way to save money for inter-country transfers.


It's still not to early to consider investing in XRP. It's definitely a long term hold (7-10 years), but IMO it will make many people rich.

I agree with you, Even if Ripple only owns 1% of the market share that uses XRP token. 100 billion XRP tokens at current price is still too low.

From the recent updates we can also see that they are growing very fast with XRP tokens!

Ripple Ripple Ripple XRP - is where it is at. $0.30 by Jan. and $1.00 next year. The lockup will really boost it as well. Very stable and well supported coin with a tremendous employee base of experienced and knowledgeable people. Yes, it is not the ideal as it is heavily tied to the establishment, however I believe it will be one of the coins that lasts when the dust settles and 75% of the current crypto-coins are extinct. #ripplexrp wallet: rPVMhWBsfF9iMXYj3aAzJVkPDTFNSyWdKy Tag: 1317751799

Dang, only 30 cents? Hope you were able to hold on to $3.

Rule #1 for me is never mess with or sell my XRP. HODL

Id rather lose 1k or make a million. HODFL

just like in the internet crash, a few companies made it out. Amazon, apple and google. This is xrp in this world of shitcoins. They will be one of the few who take it to the next level. People dont realize that it is not tied to the establishment like they think. Ripple labs could close tomorrow, xrp and the network would continue and the organic use cases like merchant and p2p would continue to emerge. Ripple acknowledges these other use cases, and stated they want the coin to be used for them, they are just focusing on fi's because thats where world change will come from.

I made a small gain from XRP but got suspicious and pulled out. This article clarified my suspicions. Thank you.

I have a buddy who swears Ripple is going to $10, if I'm not mistaken that means it's worth 1 Trillion, more than Bitcoin and all other cryptos put together.

Which is why it won’t happen. To think this coin which doesn’t represent value in the business is worth 10T is ludicrous. I had the same feeling as the author that people are confusing the coin with the Network.

I'm not super technical but heard something pretty scary about Ripple. Because so few nodes are run we technically don't even know if Ripple is a secure network, there's so few players in the space everyone plays nice so there's no issues but as/if it grows it may not even be a secure network is something which I was hearing.

alll Bullshit. there are hundreds and hundreds of nodes from huge companies like microsoft, MIT, even average people. https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/validators

stop relating fud you hear. Whats the issue? To lazy to do a simple google search?

I actually heard that from Jackson Palmer who I think is a pretty knowledgeable person in the space. I have 0 interest in Ripple so not gonna waste my time researching it

it will easily happen. International transfer is a quadrillion dollar industry. Like are you kidding me. There is 27 trillion alone locked in nostro vostro xrp will free. stop spreading factless fud . crypto market is a baby, went from 10 bill to 800 billion in 2017. Global stock market is almost 100T. Crypto will easily be 25+ in the next 5 years, especially after the economic boom instant settlement brings

Ripple is a banksters coin they will pump and dump it to extract money from naive public who have not educated themselves on this shitecoin.

only 6 nodes in the world for this coin total dictatorship by the 2 banksters owners of the coin that own 50% of the coin.

no mining of the coin nobody can run a node you have to ask them permission and guess what the answer will be? NO

get ready for more pump and dum campaigs run on discord channels the top 5% will get 200% returns the rest get 10% returns if lucky, big pool of ripple collected in one wallet then sold when naive traders pile in , you can see the ripple transactions being pumped from one wallet address on reddit

your so wrong. RN not 1 bank holds any XRP. you are ridiculous. There are thousands and thousands of nodes for xrp, ran by huge companies like microsoft, and the average joe.

Anybody can run a node, your lying. Also there is no mining but escrow will release coins slowly like mining. No new coins can ever be made, thus it is not inflationary.

You are literally repeating your argument that consists of lies.

Here is proof there are thousands of nodeshttps://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/validators. From MIT, Microsoft, TO the average person. Do some real research.
Also RN xrp has the same chart as the top 10 coins, so are you saying they are all pump and dump shit coins.

But keep in mind if XRP ever gets to 10$, bitcoin will not be standing still either.

Take a look at a long term XRPUSD chart in log function and see what the trend lines suggest.

when all is said and done and they get 70% of banks and FI's( tens of thousands), and then the merchants, companies who want instant payment, etc...That will be easily hundreds of thousands of companies accepting it for payment, then paying their bills with it. Were looking at a market cap way over 1 trillion.

The way I've heard it explained is few to no banks are actually using Ripple, they are doing testing or doing it on a small scale. The way I heard it explained is the head of tech at a bank says were working with Ripple, even though they aren't really adopting it it's a small test. He gets to pad his resume and say hey I brought crypto to XYZ bank even though they never really plan on using it. Why do you think Ripple will be used for payments over other cryptos?

Simply wrong. I don't know why the notion of banks are not going to use XRP is so viral in social networks even though the company's CTO is saying otherwise:

I cannot disagree with your analysis. But still, Ripple is a great opportunity for long-term investment. Especially for those who bought it under $1.00
There will be drops of course, but XRP will most probably go over $5.00 in 2018! https://www.tokens24.com/coin/ripple/

This comment hasn't aged well

Not sure I follow you on the volume part. Bithumb with 27% of the market had higher volume earlier in December around the .47 cent level and has been significantly less since then despite the price increase. Any idea on how that could be?

Interesting blog. I was about to start a similair discussion. The cryptospace definitely feels a bit inflated. However we also said that about the S&P 500 40 years ago An interesting website I found: https://www.coincheckup.com They seem to give this complete indepth analysis of all cryptocoins. See: https://www.coincheckup.com/coins/Ripple#analysis For the Ripple Detailed analysis.

You kind of completely ignored the fact that Ripple is devoted to promoting XRP to settle international payments and that if Ripple is successful at doing that, that would generate demand for XRP.

Looking that deep into the project is too hard. It's much easier to look at the market cap and holler centralized token. I bought XRP because I'm a nerd for money mechanics, not because equity shares of Ripple are XRP.

tons of demand. A quadrillion dollar per year market, that will only grow once the economy is boosted by instant settlement.

Can you answer this please! :) Xrp can be used to settle in xcurrent correct?

earn ripple on free websites mining

It's really sad that you can't distinguish between what problem a crypto is trying to solve and compare that with other similar crypto's. Arguing that XRP is overvalued or useless is the same as arguing that the crypto coins with same tech or worse is useless which apart from lightning network and depending on the security of XRB is every coin out there..
Always diversify to Bitcoin + several problem tackling coins but seriously this is FUD and not a critical post.
You don't hold any other crypto to the same standard..
Even having "DODGE" in the description is laughable

Where is your Ripple wallet? ;)

rPVMhWBsfF9iMXYj3aAzJVkPDTFNSyWdKy Tag: 1317751799

I agree with the burn rate, but your idea of xrp is all wrong. Ripple labs is a fintech company who has software the utilizes xrp as instant liquidity. All of banks using xcurrent right now without xrp WILL be switching to xrapid settlement. ITs the same software, banks aren't using it yet because its still in BETA. This coin is going to release trillions in nostro, be cheaper than xcurrent, and settle instantly (current needs nostro vostro to settle instantly.
This is a no brainer every company will be using xrp and xrapid, its 6 months old, wait till commercial release.

Also the increase in XRp price was BTC reaching a all new ATH. Are you serious RN, same reason for the decrease in the market RN. You are spreading a lot of FUD.

Once all the banks use it, the other organic uses like merchant payments, blockchain for healthcare, P2P, certificates, intermediary assets. The options are endless, Ripple labs discussed already how XRP is meant to do all these use cases, they are just going after FI's first because thats where real change will come from. This coin will be behind every company and every transaction in the next few years. We are looking at a market cap in the trillions, which will easily equate to 25$ to 250$ each xrp. Thats just the beginning, once instant settlement creates a boom in the economy like the internet did for information, this coins opportunity is limitless.

Thats where the real investors see the utility of this coin and the ILP ripple has implemented. Its limits are far greater than any company could ever take in from revenue. In essence xrp will end up having a larger market cap than any company in the world, because just like everyone states, it is not a share of the company. It is the most advanced digital asset, and its utility is clearly revolutionary on a global scale.

WU does 80 billion a year alone in the quadrillion dollar per year market xrp has entered. Sbi holding does 590 billion a year, and has partnered with ripple labs, and will use xrp as the only fiat pair on their new exchange. This will obviously mean they are using xrapid. These two companies using xrapid in its pilot is enough to see that this will be world changing, along with all the new partnerships xcurrent has made that will clearly use xrapid to settle once its out of the pilot phase, for the price reduction, instant liquidity, and freeing of funds from nostro vostro accounts.

I think you are missing the whole point with the scarcity bit. If it were actually scarce you might run into problems. But it order for people to feel it will have value in the future it needs to be scarce. How do we get the best ob both but without the downfalls. Its a game of psychology pure and simple.

Over 70% of the total XRP supply is owned by Ripple, they are free to wash trade it and dump at will like they did last year selling over half a billion dollars in tokens. It will never be scarce once people realise its a useless token and stop listening to the XRP hype crowd.

#Nexty coin now has app wallet, you can download in CHPlay or Appstore. Every Nexty transaction (NTY) takes only 2 seconds and no transaction fees.
A great thing, even the top coin like BTC or ETH are also jealous. #crypto

great analysis, we have made another XRP price prediction for 2020 here https://cryptoviral.net/xrp-price-prediction-2020/