Why Cardano $ADA most likely will never be worth $100

in #cryptocurrency3 years ago (edited)

The Cardano platform’s cryptocurrency $ADA is, at the time of writing this article, worth approximately 3000 satoshi or 56 cent. Wild price predictions are circulating on the forums and the Cardano reddit, ranging from a few US dollars to a whopping $1000 per ADA in five years time and even though a lot may happen in five years, a price of $1000 or even $100 is not very likely to happen.

adabtc.PNG

Before you count me out as someone that have missed out on the last weeks’ rapid increase in value of Cardano and are just jealous, I want to let you know that I am deeply passionate about this project and personally invested in $ADA a while ago and want the very best for it. I also believe that Cardano deserves far more attention than it currently gets among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. The company developing Cardano, Input Output Hongkong (IOHK) is on the path to create a third generation cryptocurrency that has the opportunity to become something quite good for the cryptocurrency community as a whole in addition to the investors and early adopters. If they stick to the roadmap It is definitely possible to reach the price of a few USD in 2018 and perhaps even more in the following years.

Now that I have an alibi, let me explain why I believe it will be close to impossible to reach a price of $100 per ADA. Stay with me now, this will get a little mathy. The current circulating supply is, according to coinmarketcap about 26 billion coins (31 billion total supply), with the max supply being set to 45 billion. The current price sets the market capitalization to roughly $15 billion. Now let's examine what $100/ada in five years time would mean. We are uncertain at the moment on how fast the supply of ADA will increase and when it will reach the max supply of 45 billion. For the sake of this example let’s say the supply will have increased to 35 billion in five years time. Then if the price is $100, the market cap would be 35 * 10^9 * 100 = 3.5 * 10^12 or $3.5 trillion. It is definitely hard to grasp a number of that magnitude so let’s compare it to a few things. $3.5 trillion is slightly less than the GDP of Germany (according to The World Bank). $3.5 trillion is also 19% of the US GDP, 5% of the Gross world product (the entire world’s combined GDP, which is $75 trillion) and coincidentally also 5% of the current market cap of all stock exchanges combined ($69 trillion).

Unless $ADA is the one (the coin that revolutionizes the way people use and see money, all over the world) a valuation this high is thus very unlikely, to say the least. Cardano is still a wonderful project that will influence the cryptocurrency world in a very positive way and $ADA will still increase a lot in value over the coming years, but I do believe that a healthy dose of criticism is good for any project such and this and spreading ridiculously high valuations does not help Cardano at all. So continue talking and learning about Cardano and other spectacular projects out there, but be rational and, as always, do not believe everything you read!

Have a good one
//Oaklundt

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One of the things people are overlooking with discussion on ADA vs ETH or BTC & its potential is they are concentrated on the total number of coins vs the total "pieces" of value of these products.

So for a direct comparison while its easy to look at the numbers & it appears that there are ~1,500x more Cardano than BTC, the reality for those who dig a lil deeper is BTC has 8 decimal points of value while Cardano only has 6 decimal points of value. So that means there are only ~15x more ADA. Same with ETH. Looks like there are ~260x more Cardano to ETH, but there are really ~2.6x.

So you can debate the worthwhileness of Cardano as an investment vs these other coins & other coins not mentioned IF Cardano really can become the 3rd generation cryptocurrency that its being hyped as. But if BTC is a $100k to $1M+ per coin at some point I believe the long term upside on Cardano could be very nice & in the thousands let alone $100 per coin.

That said there is obviously so much speculation & a long ways to go in this space who knows what goes where or what'll come next, but personally Cardano is one I'm invested in & have hyped it to non-crypto guys who just want the potential next big thing they can throw some money in today & look back at in a year or 5. Cardano will have to perform, but regardless of how big it gets I believe its one of the safest, less volatile bets out there right now.

@Mikeymanifesto - I'm starting to wonder if the high circulating supply of Cardano was in fact, strategic thinking on the company's part? Charles has already been saying that he's starting to tour all over the developing world to educate the nearly 2 Billion people without bank accounts and ID's of the value cryptocurrency provides. Now, the question is what will happen once all of these people start entering the space? If there was a low circulating supply, it would be to expensive for 3rd world countries to get a piece of the pie. The current fee's involved in Bitcoin surpasses a whole monthly wage for people with little income which no one seems to be taking into consideration. Maybe this has something to do with it?

It's a beautiful post. But I can not agree with the market cap staff. You can find tons of resources regarding a bug bs on market cap indication.

We all know that there are hundreds if not thousands of bitcoins are missing somehow not accessible by their owners due to old laptop dumped in to the bin or lost keys.

So circulating quantity of any coins at the moment unknown due to these basic reasons.

If eople willing to pay 5 dollars or 500 dollars today it would take even onky a day or two to reach to these numbers. I saw that happened at Ripple xrp with my own eyes that it took only a day or 2 to reach 4.50 aud from 1.20 aud with all rumors were going to be added onto coin base.

Agreed.... ADA is great and maybe a few dollars a coin but $100 no way!!!

People badly want their altcoins to grow, because they can't accept the BTC boat.

That's when you get situations like this.

Yeah I agree, we need to be reasonable. We can't expect to 100x our money just because someone else did it with BTC.

I totally get this argument ... but i can not help but think about how so many people were using the same math to explain how Ethereum could not reach $100 or even $200 ...

I get it ... supply, supply, supply .... but if people are willing to pay a higher price, if the market demand spikes, justified or not ... couldn't the price increase without requiring insanely high market caps?

Just trying to understand how the total ADA supply suggests it is absolutely impossible to reach $100.

If people are willing to pay a higher price, is that not enough?

Cardano is not just a currency, in addition to solving the problems Ethereum faces, it looks very promising to become a solid standard platform for smart contracts, dapps etc.

Nope, people willing to pay is not enough. Also, nobody will ever be willing to pay $100 for Cardano. At least in 5-10 years term. There re tons of other coins and other options. Just like now not everyone want to pay 15 000 for bitcoin or even 3000 for bitcoin cash.

3.5 trillion will be a drop in the bucket after sirin os. ;) imo

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