I like your analysis very much @cicbar, and could only add my view at the things. It is easy to agree with you on ETH and EOS as a possible sparks for for another SPECULATIVE bullrun. But from that point my additions are (hard)forking…

First fork goes into a few more possible sparks for that emphasized SPECULATIVE bullrun. Year 2017. was a year of fiat crisis. Inflation numbers got very high in many countries all over the world (Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Mexico, Argentina, India…), and people started to search for alternatives to preserve the value of their work. That was a pretty good spark. Year 2017. was also a year of big uncertainty after the “unpredictable” Trump has became POTUS. And the most probable spark was a clear “announcement of intentions” that Wallstreet is going to jump into the crypto arena. Last year, everything has set up nicely for a serious SPECULATIVE rise.

Second fork — Why do I say “speculative” all the time? Because I consider Bitcoin is on a real rise that goes in the shadows of the speculative one. On January 1st 2016. bitcoin was sold for $460, and on January 1st 2017. for about $970. On August 31. it got to $4700, and then, while I was recovering in Sokobanja, it hit the low of $3000. In December it has got to $20,000, and then “returned” to $6500. This year to date up to $10,000 but then “return” to $7000… So, there is a real bullrun and speculative bullrun. The real bullrun never stopped and it goes clearly up and strong:

Jan 1st 2016. — $460
Jan 1st 2017. — $970
Sep 14th 2017. — $3000
Apr 6th 2018. — $6600
Today — $7000

just connect the lowest dots on a graph, and that would be the real rise of bitcoin so far. Couldn't ask for more, really :)