Trend Analysis: Altcoins Suffers As BITCOIN Goes up. Top 82 Altcoins down to NEGATIVE Trend, What's Going on?
Well, it's not just one of those good days. How can it be when the top 82 Altcoin out of top 100 list of Coin Market Cap are all on the downtrend.
Even Bittrex looks sad, just look at it;
Although, it's just a matter of time to turn green but that's some serious money involved there and probably most of you are stuck there hard. It seems that all the good news are dominated by the Bitcoin Bull ahead that we are probably about to experience in a few days.
The most probable reasoning that can be drawn at the moment for the Altcoin suffering is that the investors want to get their hands full with the Bitcoin Fork. And that is evident by Bitcoin run over the past Week. It has racked in about USD 5 Billion since October 1st.
Bitcoin has also passed the 50% landmark global market capitalization of the Crypto market. To be precise Bitcoins has regained a 50.15% market share for the first time since since August 18, 2017.
Just another chart showing nothing but positivity over the past few days.
Bitcoin is going steady as expected with a very good support from the community. Amongst Exchanges, Bitfinex remains the leader in bringing capital into the Crypto. It's pulling a large chunk of money, approx 10% of the market share.
If we look at the past 7 days chart, it's seems that people are pouring in their money into Bitcoin and of course most of them are cashing out on their Altcoins, hence the suffering.
There's literally nothing much to explain, it will probably take a few dips and then the trend would remain bullish as we approach the hard fork in November. Hard Fork is still a little away but that's the only possible reasoning so far that can be given for the current market trend.
I guess this one does not need any explanation I tried to explain it in the images. Any queries are welcomed. You can also do the math yourself. Here are the link from where I pulled the snapshots.
Just head over to the link for current : https://coinmarketcap.com/
Historical Snapshot - August 27, 2017: https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20170827/
Altcoins
Sure, they are suffering hard. But I just wanted to make an in-depth overview of how bad the situation is and make it a little easier for you guys to formulate your strategies and if possible, may be stay away for a while.? Unless, of course you can make out of it.
It's actually pretty bad.
Of the top 100 coinmarketcap list 82 altcoins are red.
23 of them are down by double figures.
34 of them are down by >5 but <10.
25 of them are down by <5
The highest sufferer so far is AdEx with 18.53%
What Should You Do
It's totally upto you how you are taking this from here. But make sure that you are entering into the right trades at the right time and this certainly doesn't seem the right time for entering into one if you are a short trader.
If you are a long-term investor, it shouldn't matter to you much other than the fact that you can get a hold on a few more coins.
I also consider this a good opportunity for short investors but it will test your smartness more than just usual. I hope you are ready for that.
Add to my altcoin position is my approach.
I expect this to continue right up to the fork....people are looking for the dividend that is called bitcoin gold.
Free money....although in the process, they are generating free money for those who jump on the alt coin bandwagon.
@originalworks
You just summed it, that's what I was trying to explain in this very long post. . :) People are probably jumping to the Bitcoin Gold scenario is because that's a certain amount gained.
I guess it isnt a bad idea....
If they can time it right, they also could gain by picking up altcoins on the cheap after they dump the bitcoin gold.
Either way, I see the crypto market going up as a whole in November.
You are absolutely right. The altcoin route is even more profitable. To have one Bitcoin Gold you wil have to buy one BTC and that's about $4600+Exchange fees etc. Now if you invest that in coins like OMG, Decred, Waves you will certainly earn a hefty amount when this drama is over.
Man, not sure if you have been following my journey trying to learn daytrade with cryptos on bittrex. I started from zero (literally, at day 1 my main strategy was to buy ALL the coins and then sell ALL the coins lol) I'm trying to develop a nice strategy so I started from broad and went narrowing down...
Today I thought I finally found a nice setup to trade, i'm on the version 37 of my starting strategy!!! But I managed to find just a couple coins and made 0.1% only.
You cant imagine how happy I'm feeling now, you said the market was absolute horrible....
There is absolutely light in the end of tunnel for me!!!
No andre, its just the beginning. I believe you should learn about how to find trade setups, calculate risk and manage trades. Seems to me that you´re trying to create a system from scratch, and that takes way too long. How about you learn from people who actually know what they´re doing(not talking about me, since I´m in the know-ish phase, but they´re plenty of youtube videos out there that teach you how to trade. FYI - I usually make about 3% on short time frames and about more on longer timeframes.). I know it can be time consuming(I´ve accumulated about 100 hours of videos and practiced most of the techniques), but it DOES pay out to learn them.
you are saying the same thing my wife said... go out and learn... but I wanna use my poker background to develop from scratch chuck norris style... it's not only about the money for me.
I know but I´m gonna say the same thing that my martial arts sensei said to me, as I was always dreaming about developing my own style of fighting: DO IT, but FIRST, learn the game as is. You might be trying to play poker in a backgammon table :P
hahah.. I am glad you are having fun. That's the way to do it. Coming from a Finance background, when I see people playing with figures and graphs and what not. I couldn't help myself but to laugh at it.
haha You probably remember this post of mine https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ghayas/have-you-ever-felt-that-whenever-you-buy-a-coin-the-price-goes-down-and-vice-versa
I just updated it last night and what happened to me again with the WAVE trade and to be honest even as I type I still have a BTC-WAVE market tab open :). I am doing worse than you but I get out of it in the end very nicely. In fact, I end up with more coins than the previous one.
The strategy is simple, use your resource to find out when is the bottom for a currency. We are probably at a very good stage of market, if you invest in BTC you will get profit and if invest in good altcoin you will profit as well. :)
Everything is on sale! :)
Black Sunday!? :)
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There is a reason while they are called trading PAIRS: Imagine 2 elevators going up, one is moving at 6 times the speed of the other while they are both ascending. If you stand inside the fastest elevator(lets call it elevator BTC) looking down to the other one, from your perspective it seems the other elevator is going down(let´s call it elevator ALTCOIN). It is only when the elevator BTC has slowed down or stopped altogether, that you can begin to calculate how many floors elevator ALTCOIN actually went up. So, it IS true people are un-diversifying their investments for the fork(I am doing it too), but to that, add the "elevator perception effect"(can a professional trader/economist tell me how is this effect called? Since then I shall call it "ELEVATOR ACTION", like the dearest console game of my childhood :P). You can cancel that mirage of perception matematically by ADDING the percentage of bitcoin price raice since the last FIB retracement. It is even easier to calculate it if you do it day by day, or week by week. For example(and this is a REAL example) BTC has gone up about 11,01% since the last FIB retracement ended on 2017-10-05(YYYY-MM-DD). So to cancel out the mirage, ADD that percentage of any altcoin and you will see the REAL rise/fall of the given altcoin.
Note: This is ONLY for the ALTCOINS that are traded AGAINST BTC pairs and have NO USDT counterparts.
Man you are good. But you are wasting your talent on those Youtube videos out there. They are supported by nothing.
They talk a good talk, that's their skill to sell their videos. Most people will have vested interest. Don;t get swayed by listening to them for hours and hours. When the big people trade they don't look for fabonacci and Eliot wave and blah blah. Those all are BULL shit . Absolutely supported by nothing.
That's ridiculours to say, that since a particular has seen five waves no it will have to retract.
Can you predict what I am going to write next? No.
It's exactly the same. We use data analysis to see how the market behaved not for 'how the market will behave'.
The rule is simple. Pick a potential coin, spot the bottom and invest and sell when it peaks. DON't bother yourself with all those rubbish details.
I see that you are too much involved.
Actually no, I don´t pay attention to people who are just "selling their videos". I do a systemic analysis, and my background is in computer science. Now I see that you´ve dismissed all information without separating the good stuff from the garbage in those videos(hey, there is even some useful stuff that come from the worst people). I come from the mindset that even a computer virus can teach you useful code if you know how to look at it. Financially, its starting to pay out since the methods of trading that I use work out most of the time.
You have potential but you have too much emotion bro. The market is not a living person, it´s not an oppponent you can game, it doesn´t care if you win or lose, how much you win or how much you "bet". I feel like teaching you some stuff(if you let me). I won´t charge you anything, since I´m not selling anything, but when you see that the methods work, be sure to like my posts. You scratch my back, I´ll scratch yours.
Systemically, you can understand all trades as a series of ARGUMENTS. How? Well, they are like "discussions" on what the price of a given coin should be. As in steemit, in trading there are minnows, dolphins and whales too, and whales can crash a market just by moving their tails(or placing a very big sell order). They trade using patters 90% of the time(because most professional traders actually use a "rulebook", so if you learn their patterns you can predict what the whales are gonna do 90% of the time. I´m sure that as a poker player you can appreciate the value of that. What I´ve done personally is to learn most of that stuff and SIMPLIFY it so I don´t get caught in overcomplicating things. I´m a swing trader, meaning I mainly use price action to trade and only 3 indicators.
This is part of my trading screen. As you can see by the arrows(the red arrows are sells, and the green arrows are buys), In that timeframe I´ve won on every single trade. That´s not luck, it´s science! Are you not convinced yet? The analisys is actually easier than you think. Every price goes through channels, for example that channel is the BTC in the last 5 days. Can you see the channel clearly? The bottom is that ascending straight yellow line and the top is the ascending red line. ANY good trader can detect a channel, and that gives you about 60% to 70% chance of trading sucessfully on a bullish market(a market that is on the rise). That channel is not provided by the trading software, it was drawn by me, and what it means is that usually the price rebounds both of the top and on the bottom(unless specific conditions are met). Why not just buy and hold? Because every coin will have pullbacks on its way to the top, and if you know where they will be, you can also make money on a descending market. The investor point of view(that would be you right now) is "let´s just buy this coin low and hold it while it rises to top". That works, but it takes months or years to make a profit that way. It´s good, but you can do better. Now here I´m telling that you can predict many many things in the market(dare I say most), so a trader´s point of view is "let´s ride the ups and the downs and make money using the market volatility. Why? Well, because it makes 10 times as much money, of course! But to get from "investor" to "swing trader" takes a lot of time and effort(been trading and learning for about 6 months now). I´m no "black belt" by any means, and I´m aiming at getting at "pro trader" level myself, but I can teach you one thing or two about it.
It looks complicated but it´s actually very simple.(or rather, I´m gonna simplify it, by a lot). From bottom to top, the bottom red and blue lines are the MACD. What is it? The MACD detects what you could call "inertia" of the coin. Say for example that a car is travelling at 50 km/h and then it slows down. The speed factor it´s a thing you can measure, analyze. And this does just that. It not only tells you when a coin is moving up, but also HOW FAST is moving, when is decelerating and when it will stop on the next hour timeframe. (I´m actually using metaphors for explaining this since they are easier to understand, I had to learn from this: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp Will you look at that? When i first read that, it was like ancient egyptian to me. Now I can proudly say that I understand every word and concept there)
The next indicator, in the center of the screen, the blue and red lines with very narrow turns, is the Stoch RSI. That tells you WHEN the price is about to turn in the super short term(5 minutes).
On the top of the screen there is the price chart, and the channels are drawn by uniting all the lowest points(supports) of the prices by a line, and then unite all the highest points(resistances) by another line. Now you got 2 lines that tell you that, when on a bull market(rising market) or a bear market(declining market) the price action is going to rebound on those walls most of the time. The most unpredictable kind of market is the horizontal market, which is the nemesis of every trader.
That is a horizontal market(technically its a bearish one followed by a lateral movement), as you can see, I continued to make money most of the time during the past month even through bitcoins uncertainty, while most amateur traders just panicked and sold and the true believers held their coins. The only thing I regret is not getting on time to that big dip to 3200usd since I was actually away on a business trip and I don´t trust my analisys enough to leave many automatic trades(yet) over the course of days.
Anyway I´m getting off track. What I´m aiming to show you is that this is not poker, since your opponent is not emotional and you can predict what the market will do(at least in the broad strokes) most of the time. Yep, you´re playing a rigged game in a table where every one knows how to count cards. Wanna learn to count them? ;)
Btw, as proof of forecast, I´m gonna tell you that BTC is goin down to at least 4300 over the next 2 days, even though its at 4600 and on the rise as we speak. However if you look at things mid term, it will probably go up, testing resistances and trying to get to 5000 just before the october 25th fork. Let it be recorded :P
Anway, there are plenty of professional analysts out there who can give you a way more detailed analisys.
Also, It seems that I´m missing my own point. The bigger point here is that a good trader predicts, but an excellent trader always has a plan B in case he´s wrong about his own predictions. Your goal is to always have a plan in which you win in the mid term, no matter what the market does.
wow.. look at this man. Told you are too much involved. cya after two days.
Well, looks like I was right and wrong at the same time. The market did go down from 4900, but never reached the 4300 I predicted. The correction reached its lowest price at 4716 and it recovered went up way sooner than expecte, now crossing the 5100 threshold. But as I told ya, I still made money. That is the thing: make a setup and plan your trades so you win money no matter what happens, even if you´re wrong or you over or underestimate when predicting. Cya :D
haha. You made money because the market is always goes up and down. Tell me any price and I would place a trade on that price and I would still make money.
The only difference is timing. When you tie your prediction to time. You would always be wrong. The point is not making money. The point is prediction. Thank you btw.
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