Trying to get the grip on that whole crypto thing? Not sure when to buy/sell or how to spot the next potential big gainer? There is a set of questions that every new person in crypto asks so for the sake of your learning curve and my limited time I’ve decided to answer of all them in this small paper.

Before we begin — the following article presents my ways of trading and may differ from what other traders are doing. This is not financial advice — I’m just showcasing methods that work for me, so as always DYOR and don’t follow blindly a dude pretending to be a monkey on twitter.

The article is divided by specific questions. If you are not interested in a certain topic just jump into the next one. In the end I will present some general tips and recommend certain traders to follow. Let’s begin!

“When should I buy?”

The following question will be answered from the TA perspective, so it assumes you know at least some of the basics. To understand how to get good entries outside of TA or how to start learning it — stay withing the article, I’m talking about it in latter parts.

Buying in crypto for me has 2 perspectives. The first one is based on market cycles. You probably recognize this one:

When you look at the altcoin’s weekly or daily candles you will see a very similar pattern going on for most of them in 2017. A steady, sometimes rapid pump followed by a long-lasting downtrend and an accumulation zone going into another cycle. Good recent example of that is $LBC:

Looks familiar?

The main goal in a year-long perspective is to accumulate around bottoms before the real altcoin cycles begin and get the profits once they reach their tops. The second part of the year usually goes by swing trades and new projects (that’s also where the ICOs did have their prime time this year).

The second perspective is when do we buy the coins before and inside of that cycle. A perfect set-up can have different meaning for everyone, as it depends on the time-frame and expected gains. When I am talking about a good entry I usually mean:

• Support line inside a common pattern
• Previous accumulation zone after completing the cycle, with a confirmation of a bottom
• Breakout point or pullback on previous resistance

The following $ETC chart shows a lot of that here. Currently sitting on a support line inside a symmetrical triangle, very close to the all-time resistance line and is at the levels of accumulation zone from April. All that after double bottom trend reversal with high volume and bullish indicators. A very tasty bite.

On a smaller time frame we got A&E bottom that appeared on most of the alts during the previous month. Those bottoms may always look differently (triple bottom as you will see below with $POSW) so look for other indicators such as growing volume or HHHL (higher highs, higher lows) to confirm stronger reversal and start of the uptrend. This is basically the position you would like to place your bets on for the upcoming rallies.

With $POSW we got multiple support retests and a long-term resistance trend line break through. That usually means a start of an accumulation zone where the price stays stable and smart money (future you) is accumulating for the upcoming rallies. When you look at the area before the spike — it returned to the same levels, showcasing once again how the cycles work. This one was especially bullish as $BTC was still going for its ATH.

Not every chart is the same of course, so it’s always important to zoom out and look for similar patterns. Some cycles might be sped-up some may go slower but one of the main rules of TA is that history repeats itself. Example below — $DOT with its 3x spikes, currently on the move for its possibly 3rd attempt at that pattern.

Take a look how BBands got really squeezed each time before big movements

For the shorter term entries, like in the example below — after the spike — I am always waiting for a pullback. Entering during a green dildo will not only give me a bad spot to set-up my stop-losses but also puts me in a direct risk of getting underwater with the buy before I evaluate my position. For entering inside a pullback I am using Fibs measured from the bottom to the top of the pump. The golden ratio that I am always looking at is 0.618 as seen in the examples below with $XEM and $ENG. Both of them went on pretty crazy runs afterwards, meaning that was the local bottom of a very strong uptrend.

Another thing I am looking for in entries are retests of previous resistances. Usually after a strong breakout confirmed by a good volume the price comes back to retest a long-term trend line in order to bounce off of it. That’s a very bullish sign usually confirming start of the new uptrend, especially if it’s done on a bigger time frames. Recent examples — $VIA and $BCH.

There are of course dozens of other indicators that traders are using to pick up good entries such as Ichimoku cloud’s and EMA’s crosses but those topics are too broad to talk about them here. During the next parts of this article you will be presented with good TA materials to study so that you can find techniques that work best for you.

“When should I sell?”

Selling depends highly on your style of trading — are you a day trader or an investor? You want some quick profits from the swings or you prefer holding the coins for maximum profit? The answer to both cases is actually pretty similar. Keep in mind that the following analysis is assuming that you know some of the TA basics — more info on how to start is available in the next parts of this article.

General rule — I pick my exit points accordingly to previous key levels (local ATH, trendlines, strong supports etc) and fib levels. I usually confirm the sell by analyzing RSI. Most of the time I hold the majority of the bag outside of my initial investment until I see a potential reversal signs, while taking some profits along the way.

Finding an exit point in short-term is very similar to finding it long-term. The main difference is basically time frames that are being used. For very quick trades the best way to find a profitable swing is recognizing patterns such as ascending triangles, bull flags etc. Those are quick consolidation levels in a clear uptrend which have very predictable outcome levels. $LINK as the example below had a textbook triangle going on after a bigger spike.

For more general exit points I’m always looking at the bigger picture. Where is the next bigger resistance line (previous support turns into current resistance) or the next fib level. Keep in mind that it all should be in a clear uptrend, being bullish in an obvious downtrend is almost like an illness — don’t allow yourself to become a bulltard.

Keep in mind that the road to the target is never that easy. There will be dozens of other small patterns in between which give more short-term opportunities. Take a look at the $NEO chart — the first target was the previous support and second one was the biggest resistance available, connected to the 1 fib level from the ATH. Simply holding will get you to the target but there were a lot of pullbacks and smaller flags along the way.

There are also cases of absolute tops after a parabolic movements like recent $XVG run. At those times more than TA I prefer to go with the market sentiment. During final pushes I’ve seen articles claiming that verge is going to be the next bitcoin and that’s outside of overall euphoria. The old golden rule fits perfectly here — buy the FUD, sell the greed. And God damn verge shillers got no shame when it comes to buying a coin which did x2000 $BTC-wise in less than a year.

Goodbye old friend, you will not be missed

“How do I start with TA?”

Here is the list of things that I think are more than enough to start learning TA:

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John J. Murphy

https://www.babypips.com/

https://www.youtube.com/user/carpenoctom

And that’s literally it. Everything that you need to know can be taken out of those 3 sources. Once you get the basics you can start looking for some individual indicator tutorials on YouTube. Of course this is only theory — to really start using TA you need to create your own charts from the first moment you grab that book/website. Try experimenting with different indicators, draw some scenarios and come back to see if they work. Learn from other traders and see what works for them, because everybody got a different recipe for a good TA. Those are the twitter traders that I recommend, make sure to check them out:

@MPovolotski @cryptowilson @cryptocred @crypto_loot @cryptoWalk3r @Crypto_Ed_NL @CryptoTutor @VentureCoinist @Beetcoin @CryptoDonAlt @galaxybtc @CarpeNoctom @CRYPTOBANGer @anambroid @Anbessa100

Not much more to it than this. You have to put a lot of work in. Even if you do not want to chart yourself, you should get the basics to recognize and analyze work of other people. Small tip from myself — simple TA = better TA. Don’t over complicate it. I tend to only use trend lines and RSI, sometimes Ichimoku, BBands and EMAs.

“What do you think about coin X?”

The most common question of them all. When you are asking about a certain coin you should realize that me or every other trader must do the same work as you would if you did a research on it. Check the recent price action, use cases, team, roadmap — everything. Even if you do not know the technology and TA that well — this is the way to finally learn it.

Speaking from the experience — my real gains started when I was finally able to find those undervalued coins by myself, before anybody started talking about them. That’s how I found $POWR in pre-ico and that’s how I did 30x on $XRB, 25x on $BCO and x15 on $XBY only recently. If you are serious about staying in this space for long time then doing your own research and trusting it is the first step you should take. Unless you want to end up like this guy (legit questions that I receive daily):

Understand that getting a confirmation that a coin is good from your favorite trader doesn’t change anything about it. Even if somebody tells you it is great you still should be aware of its specifics, tech and people behind it. So cut the umbilical cord and start doing some research.

“Which coins should I invest in?”

The ones that you think are going to grow from the moment you put your money in, till the moment you take it out.

Depending on your preference — as always — in the short term you could be looking at the coins that are having a pretty big release coming up (to look them up use http://coinmarketcal.com/). There is usually some FOMO leading to the event but remember that news are always already priced-in in some way — don’t take that growth for granted. For every other occasion you should be looking for coins that:

1. Have good fundamentals (use cases, good team, low supply, USP)
2. Have good looking charts (yet unpumped, not in a clear downtrend, during a pullback after a breakout)
3. Are yet undiscovered by bigger audience (use $tags on twitter to see how many people are talking about them)

If you don’t have the time/don’t want (sigh…) to do your own research there are a lot of free/paid groups out there providing these kind of calls. If you are willing to put your money into somebody else’s pick — I can’t blame you, if the person knows its stuff then it might be highly profitable. It gets trickier when the pick doesn’t work and the only person who lost on the bet is you.

A must-have tool in your crypto-research toolkit

I’m going to go on a small rant here to actually answer that one. Being spoon-fed is the cancer of crypto. You should understand that there is a lot more to trading than just taking/buying the signals from successful traders. You should know what % of portfolio should go into each coin, how long do you want to hold it, how to set stop-losses on it, at what level should you take some profits from it or how to act when the market suddenly crashes. Every trader has a different strategy and risk tolerance. Nobody takes responsibility for a loss besides you so if you are going to invest your money in a coin be aware of all the other elements of trading before relying completely on some random twitter people (including me). It’s all fun and games when you make money in the bull market — not so much when the pumps stop and you are left with sustaining the profit by yourself.

The truth is most of the people having paid groups now (or even free call channels) were just like you few months ago. The difference is that they put in the work to learn the game and become self sustainable. Basically most of the calls from the groups could be found either for free or by research, but that would require time and learning from people who don’t want to do. If you have to join — join one that is teaching TA/FA. Nothing actually wrong in that — if there is a demand why not take advantage of it? Same goes the other way, as the groups can be really profitable for users if they really don’t have enough time to do research by themselves. But let’s be real, I’ve read way too many messages begging for tips to know how majority of this works.

Just don’t be like this guy. Not asking for an advice on what to buy should go in pair with putting in work on your own.

And if you do use other’s hard work — at least appreciate it, say thanks and maybe even throw a tip in there after a good trade. No wonder a lot of bigger traders are hesitant to help the newbies if all they do is demand.

“What should I do with my alts when BTC is running?”

For the last few months people are consistently dumping alts when $BTC moons. At our current position (with alts starting their new uptrends and are generally bullish) I don’t mind holding through the dips. I treat that as a healthy correction before running even higher.

If you are a day trader though, that’s a different story. It would be more logical to sell before all the dumps but the margin of error is small here. If you are not an experienced trader it’s actually pretty hard to get the timing right and more often than not it ends in something like this:

You would be surprised how many people do that

It all comes down to your individual preferences. Sticking to your strategy is essential here, panicking is what will always get you rekt. First recent “blood” actually took my portfolio to 15% more gains, while other traders sold and increased their positions so there is no golden rule. The second one got me pretty rekt but still in great profits. Be aware however that the correlation might change in the future and we could see alts and $BTC mooning together. Best solution in between would be having some tight stop-losses on profits with signals but until we are that early into this altcoins cycle I’m not ready yet to sell any of my good entries.

“Should I continue to hold?”

What was your entry? Are you confident in the project? Did you enter for a swing trade or is it a long-term trade for you? There is too many individual questions to answer that one with a yes/no. Nobody can pull the trigger for you so before going into the trade try deciding on what kind of trade it is.

If you have a good entry level and believe in the project’s potential — hold for bigger gains, selling small amounts along the way.

If you are not sure about the project’s direction and your position right now is shaky — set up some tight stop-losses. If it manages to run you will get some additional profit. If not — you always get some spare $BTC to buy the dip or move on to the next project.

Once again it all comes down to one thing — doing your own research and knowing when do you want to realize profits from that specific trade.

One more thing, essential one — $HODL is one of the worst advices I’ve heard in this space. You never want to be underwater with your bag when it’s clear that it is beginning its downtrend.

Cut your losers quickly, let your winners run — holding makes sense when are in a very undervalued, under the radar gem. That’s how you maximize profits. You wait till it reaches more people, gaining volume and value up from your very low entry. Holding doesn’t make sense when you are going down from a huge pump or the market is crashing with at best a chance to get even. Even if one day it recovers to the previous levels, you are missing out on a ton of trades that could’ve been done during the time of your holding.

“How do I find a new gem?”

Let’s make something clear from the start — finding a new, undervalued projects takes A LOT of time and effort. No other way around it. Since I’ve got 2 very good articles below this answer, I will only tell my quick ways how I am digging up new gems:

• Coinmarketcap

Open up https://coinmarketcap.com/ and dig. Go to the Recently Added page and research every new coin daily. Go below top 400 and check. literally. every. coin. All the traders that find those gems on twitter are doing just that — spending long hours on studying coins that 99% of other people never heard of. Look if there is some recent volume appearing on them, if the project itself is legit and if there is anything coming up development-wise. It usually takes few good shills to get the under the radar gem flying across the twitter.

Check the new coins daily — it usually takes some time before people realize their existence

• Twitter big profiles

Recently there are more and more traders who ask for people’s bags. Take advantage of that and research every thread like this for the $tags that you never heard before. People with early entries like to promote their coins to the bigger profiles in hope of having them recognized.

• Bitcointalk / New ANNs

Open up https://bitcointalk.org/ and go through the threads and all the newly added ANNs. You got here tons of shilling and basically every new project before it even hits CoinMarketCap. If you really want to be early in a project and watch it gain traction — that’s the way to do it. I would say that 90% of content there is not even readable because of all the trolling and pure stupidity, but hey — that’s crypto. Also check out ANN bot on twitter if you want to only focus on the new threads the second they appear on the forum.

Now take a look at these 2 articles by @daytradernik and @crypto_rand. Very insightful stuff from 2 of the most successful traders out there.

https://medium.com/@daytradernik/picking-out-microcaps-101-2215a5782691

https://medium.com/@CarpeCrypto/apis-google-sheets-picking-out-microcaps-made-easy-c1e847371af2

https://medium.com/@cryptorand/trading-tips-how-i-pick-low-cap-cryptocurrencies-a323c41239d8

“Which coin is the next 100x?”

The one that you get when it’s not known yet and you hold it long enough to see these kind of gains. Sometimes it takes a month ($XRB), sometimes it takes years. Patience is the key to success here. Don’t FOMO into other coins if you want to catch those X’s

It often takes time to recognize good technology

“Is it too late to enter now?”

One of my main rules that I live by in crypto is to never chase the pump. If I miss a good entry on a coin I go to a different occasion as there are dozens of them daily. I understand that going into a coin that is pumping might be temping because of the quick gains but it’s actually the opposite of it. The point here is to get an entry before the coin gets recognition, not in the middle of the growth. Going after a green dildo because of FOMO or whatever other reason is connected to a lot of risk outside of having a very bad entry, which has bigger consequences than just smaller gains (vulnerable for volatility, no way of setting normal stop-losses).

There is a reason why all the good traders are trying to buy the dips for the few weeks before altcoin cycle starts and not after they’ve already launched. So is it too late to enter now? Most of the times you are asking this— yes. Wait for the pullback if you want to enter. Especially if you really like the project for long-term and this might be the last chance to catch it at lower levels (after a big announcement). You got at least few new coins added daily and dozens of them shilled by twitter every hour. You got ICOs, new announcements for older coins, rumored partnerships and hundreds of other events basically everyday.

And you are going to leave your X00% potential position for a 30% pump?

“How much should I sell after my coin pumps?”

That’s a very individual case. I like to sell my initial investment after I feel the first initial pump is done. It may mean going 50/100/200 or even 1000%, it all depends on a project. It is preferable to sell some amounts, even small ones, along the way to always have some spare $BTC to buy the dips.

Also — don’t be afraid to sell most of the coins when the time is right — there is a reason why so many people are making fun of $DGB bagholders. Consider leaving some of the coins for some future pumps though — it eases your mind that you are not missing out when it pumps again. I usually leave around 10% of my total bag.

“How do I manage my risk better?”

When I say that there is much more to trading then just buying low, selling high I usually mean risk management. It’s very easy to ride the pumps but very hard to keep the profits when the market goes into the downtrend. I could divide risk management into 2 main parts:

1 Keeping your coins safe. That means not using exchanges as your wallet, always having 2FA on, never sharing your private keys, using hardware wallet etc. There is a person much better oriented in that then me and basically anybody else on the planet so I will let @notsofast talk here:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@notsofast/4-ways-to-secure-your-bags-bitcoin-altcoins-cryptoasset-tokens-whatever-a-notsofast-security-primer

2 Second part is managing your risks while trading. Those rules may differ for every trader but I will say what works for me and keeps me sane at all times:

• Always have some free $BTC lying around. This allows you to buy the dips, enter sudden occasions and is generally healthy for the portfolio’s growth as the whole market trades in $BTC pairs and all alts usually dip at once during $BTC rallies.
• Diversify your portfolio. You never want to be stuck with all your money in 1 or 2 project (unless it’s $BTC or $ETH). * Having bigger amount of coins lowers your overall risk and no coin in crypto is a sure-fire bet to never suddenly crash. A good example by @needacoin — while having 10 bags you only need 1 of them to go 10x to be even when every other trade literally goes to 0. One or two winners can cover-up for overall terrible day for all your other positions. Of course try not to over-diversify —lowering your risk also lowers your profitability. You are here to make money, not to catch all the pumps with 5$ bills.
• Always set-up stop-losses. People that say they never work and trigger all the time making them lose money usually are the people who enter in terrible spots. The point of stop-losses is to put them below important support lines, so that when they trigger you can be sure the downfall will be even stronger than the level your order got filled. Setting a 10% stop-loss after entering the middle of a green candle makes as much sense as the recent $ADA growth. There is no point in staying underwater with your bag if you can buy it back lower or enjoy the ride with $BTC while it destroys other alts. Just remember to set the alarms when the target is hit.
• Don’t put the majority of your portfolio in very low caps. This one if for the people who want to have a steady growth and not gamble with 90% of their stash on shitcoins. The smaller a coin is the more volatile it is. I am trying usually to put a very low % of my portfolio in lower-cap and let it become a bigger position with time due to its growth. Shitcoins are vulnerable to manipulation and often have problems with liquidity so try allocating your $BTC accordingly to the level of risk a coin represents.
• Take profits on the way up. That’s a healthy way of increasing your $BTC amount and it gives you more flexibility on the next moves. It would also hurt less if you don’t manage to sell the coins at the top, which doesn’t happen a lot anyway.

General tips

Learn the game. Like really, don’t be lazy and start studying the space. No success will come for you in the long-term unless you learn TA and FA by yourself.

When you’re looking at the coin — look at the $BTC value. Use USD charts to help you with deciding on an entry but the name of the game is still obtaining as much $BTC as possible. There is a reason why holding $BTC from June to November was more profitable than 95% of alts during that period (they held their USD value, incredible).

Don’t get trapped into twitter shilling a coin, you always want to be invested in one before everyone starts talking about it. Most of the talk is done because people are holding the coin already and what to increase it’s value.

Don’t fall in love with your coin — have the balls to sell it when the time is right, even if it doesn’t make sense fundamentally for it to start a downtrend. Market cycles live their own lives and you are here to make profit first.

Don’t fall for big accounts shilling ref links to Bitmex. Unless you really know your stuff you shouldn’t be playing high leverage. That’s basically gambling without good TA skills.

Understand that you cannot get all the pumps. There are dozens of them daily and that FOMO feeling is even worse because everybody is talking about the pump on twitter. Turn that off. If not today, they will shill your bag tomorrow.

Set up your own strategy. Every trader is different and it makes no sense to follow somebody with a different risk tolerance levels are basically game style (swing traders/investor etc). Decide on what’s important to you and model your game around that.

If you want to enter into a pumping coin — at least wait for the pullback, never jump straight out into it. That’s a recipe for a disaster 95% of the time. Treat it like poker — you always want to make a right play, not the most profitable one.

Always watch $BTC when trading alts. $BTC is the king and right now he decides what is going to happen. Are we sideways and mooning or are we mooning and dipping alts?

Always have some spare $BTC to buy the dips and keep flexibility. I would never recommend being 100% in alts, the market is too volatile. Keep your options open.

Always sell some profits on the way up to keep diversifying portfolio. It’s better to look for another 10x than keep all the money in something that already pumped. Also the risk is lower.

Always set stop-losses. If you have good entries they will not get triggered like most of the people say. It will allow you to have liquidity and never be underwater.

Be humble — don’t think you’re a god cause you caught a really good pump. Even a monkey can catch a 10x at the right time. Never stop learning and understand that it’s the profit’s sustaining that is hard — not making it.

Good entry is more important than catching a pump. You have a lot more flexibility when you enter in a good spot, not forcing you to sell quickly to avoid a loss. It keeps your options open.

Don’t be afraid to take profits. That applies to taking profits on the way up to diversify with new coins or taking profits from everything once the moment is right (alt season done, market crashing, big events in general). Don’t fall in love in your investment, that will bring you down with it.

Never put too much into a risky coin. Bigger profitability might be tempting but keeping your portfolio stable and your head cool is more important than some additional %. Smaller coins are easily manipulated so you never want to expose yourself too much to such risks.

Never invest more than you can lose. That’s obvious but many people still are too greedy to get easy gains. I’ve received my share of “help me” messages to know that’s true.

Learn the basics of TA to know when to buy and when to sell, it’s essential. No single article like this will give you that — you have to put in your own time.

Appreciate the work other people do. Traders here are spending hours doing research and sharing it for free for others to have it without basically any effort. Say thanks, tip them, don’t demand more.

Recommended crypto traders

Outside of the TA masters that I recommended in the previous question you should also take a look at these:

@ThisIsNuse @bitcoin_dad @Sicarious_ @FatihSK87 @AceOfWallStreet @cryptomocho @SilverBulletBTC @needacoin @daytradernik @MagUra_Crypto @AngeloBTC @VerthagOG @cryptopicasso @ZeusZissou @crypto_birb @Crypto_Brahma @tehMoonwalker

Special follow — @notsofast. Most knowledgeable guy in crypto as far as I’m concerned.

This should give you a perfect mixture of FA, TA, low caps and overall crypto knowledge from the people who are here basically from the beginning.

If you got any additional questions — hit me up on twitter @CryptOrangutang. Thanks for the attention everybody, happy trading and keep it safe out there!

Appreciating my work and calls?

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