📉🕘BTC to $3000 on 15 December @ 0900 UTC 📉🕘
It's been a long time since I've spoken about Elliott Waves and how much I despise them as prediction tools.
In many of my older posts I have lamented the fact that Elliott Wave fans never really predict anything solid with their waves, they may make predictions, but the waves don't ever give them either:
- a) a price level, or
- b) a time,
...which is exactly what you need from TA.
Sure you've seen price levels on Elliott Wave charts, but did the waves predict those levels? No, they did not. The levels are normally determined by something like a Volume Profile / Fibonacci Retracement / Previous Level / Psychological Level etc. The wave is often just there to look pretty and professional, not something which sits well with those of us who loath pretentiousness!
...and all of that makes this post rather amusing, because Bit Brain is about to use Elliott Waves! Buckle your seatbelts ladies, gentlemen and people who's gender may not be assumed!
📉🕘BTC to $3000 on 15 December @ 0900 UTC 📉🕘
Let me start by saying that of course I could do this post without Elliott Waves; but I have a wicked sense of humour, so I choose to use them just for fun! 😈 The quality of information will not suffer, I promise.
I am using Elliott Waves today not just to be funny, but because I think they are useful in illustrating the point of this post and in helping my prediction. This is a very rare set of circumstances. You see, normally Elliott Waves look something like this:
Note how the waves join high and low points, yet the shorter-term trends of the price chart do not parallel the Elliott Wave lines. You may not see what I mean just yet, but fear not, you will when you see the next chart.
Today's chart caught my eye when I started constructing lines in my mind and realised that they ran parallel to the longer-term lines. At that stage using Elliott Waves popped into my head. So without further ado, here is what I see:
Note how the short-term price movements run exactly parallel to the downwards facing Elliott Wave lines. Now Elliott Waves or not, it doesn't matter; what matters is that BTC has a well established angle that it is descending at, occasionally hopping around, but then returning to a trajectory based on that specific angle.
Had I chosen not to use the Elliott Waves, I would have shown you something along these lines:
The angle is clear. It would be a statistical impossibility for it to be mere coincidence that so many BTC trendlines close to each other are moving at the same angle. What I have done is to project the current short-term trendline (the smallest red line on the chart above or 4-5 on the Elliott Wave chart) at the established trend angle. If you want to know why the first line starts so high up, it is because that is where the price started to drop below the level it had remained above for several weeks before and also that first little zigzag section it runs past on 15 Nov is also parallel to it. Here is a close-up of the small sections that run parallel to the main lines:
To explain my attention grabbing heading: since I have already predicted a drop to $3000 on several occasions, most notably here and most recently here, it was a simple matter of extending my line down to the $3000 level to get a time: 0900 UTC on 15 December - as read off point 5 of the Elliott Waves (Coinbase price).
I hereby challenge other Elliott Wave users to make such bold predictions! (or even any at all! 😂) In all fairness, I think that Elliott Waves are great at explaining what happened after the fact, and I don't mean that facetiously, but I do maintain that they have little to no value as a prediction tool.
Please note that there is a high margin of error on my 0900 UTC, 12 December - $3k prediction! DO NOT go and place trades based on it without first doing your own research! As always, I show you my best guess based on my background knowledge and how I interpret what I see right now. Those guesses often change. Those guesses normally change!
Let us hope that I am right and that we can hit $3k soon (and lower if necessary - including possible final capitulation). The sooner the bears go into hibernation, the sooner the bulls run free.
Yours in Elliott Wave crypto
Bit Brain
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