I'm sticking with "BTC to $3k" - for now
This has certainly been an interesting week for Bitcoin. I have refrained from making comments and projections about the price of BTC for the last few days, preferring to watch and see what happens, hoping for some sort of clear indication or confirmation.
The last few days have confirmed my fortnight old predictions of BTC heading to $3200. Looking at some major exchanges I see the following 2018 ATLs (from 7 December):
- Coinbase: $3212
- BitMex: $3200
- Bitstamp: $3210
- Bitfinex: $3278
- OKCoin: $3204
- Binance (USDT): $3225
- Bittrex (USDT): $3226
- Poloniex (USDT): $3227
What now?
BTC has now started climbing slowly in a two-steps-forward-one-step-back fashion. You can see on the chart below how is climbs and then has a few rather obvious and sudden drops in price.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
It's climbing in what is best described as a "weak channel", one which I do not think will last.
What next?
BTC obviously failed to bounce of the bottom when it hit $3200. Since a bounce can be expected upon the termination of a capitulation style event, one must conclude that we have not yet reached the bottom.
Instead I believe that BTC will probably drop to the $3000 mark or thereabouts, a major psychological level and one at which I expect strong support. I spoke more about the drop to $3000 a fortnight ago in Bit Brain's Bearish Bitcoin Bodement - Part 2.
It might also just drop to $3200 again and bounce off that, but my gut tells me that it will still drop lower, sorry that I don't have anything more concrete than that to go on. Whatever the precise figure, I am sure that we will reach that strong support as soon as BTC arrives at the logarithmic lines based on the previous major capitulation event. They're the long red lines on the chart below and are constructed to run parallel to the line connecting the ATHs.
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Unfortunately they are very long-term lines, so reading an accurate figure off them is an impossibility. Tilt their axes by only one degree and the price will change by several hundred USD. But by looking at them from an overview perspective you can see that we look very close to the bottom. The upper line is the start of the capitulation event and the lower one is the level at which it turns.
Note that looking the lines on this chart, it appears that $3000 will be breached and that the turning point will be in the region of $2500. Perhaps this makes sense and the future will run something like this:
- BTC drops from whatever price is is at to the support level at $3000, probably pausing again at $3200 on the way down.
- After an assault on the support layer at $3000, the capitulation event occurs and BTC drops to $2500.
- BTC bounces off $2500 and settles in the region of $3000-$3200.
- Bullish attempts are made to increase the price of BTC, but are beaten off initially.
- After a few months of sideways movement, BTC turns bullish. Properly bullish.
- The crypto market explodes as investor confidence returns, now backed by the truly enormous backlog of good news that has been ignored as well as by institutional investors.
- People who originally avoided crypto begin to invest through products designed to make crypto easy for them, making the market even more buoyant.
I think that the capitulation event is near and can happen any day now. I'd like it sooner rather than later please Santa, I've been a good Bit Brain this year...
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
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Published by BitBrain
on
At least it seems we are gettting closer and not farther...
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I'll take it! I'll take any silver lining right now!
Hello!
You got an upvote from me for this post.
This is just a small contribution, but I hope it will help you, and the steem community to grow further.
Many thanks!
my pleasure
I think there are chances for reversal now but also myself I am betting for 2950$ as the probable ground.
Will see.
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I'm thinking that that is the most likely scenario, but I would be lying if I said my certainty was over about 30%.
I think I'm a little more pessimistic than you! I think it will drop further... I hope not, but...
Ouch! How much further? Considering that it dropped from $20k, anything below what I have said would be extremely alarming, though not impossible - this is crypto after all!
I'd be interested to know what you base that on and where you think support will lie.
Just gut feeling... I'm not sure that we have shaken the faith of the short-mid term buyers yet... and the general news is still negative, which does affect the people that bought in after hearing it in the news. They are also not people who tend to be convinced of the potential tech benefits, but were more interested in crypto as an investment and not a technology or an enabler of new systems.
The more I think about it, the more I think you are right.
Crypto analysis without factoring in the big markets seems a little silly to me.
Only 100billion market cap for crypto right now, the bigger macro environment has more of an impact than previous price performance. Big markets will lead crypto’s much lower because they can not be allowed to be perceived as a safe haven
The crypto break from major markets was going so well, until the big markets hit a wobbly and took crypto down with them.
I hear what you say, but then I also ask how big markets would go about doing that. It is very clear that they have already manipulated markets negatively to their own long-term benefit, but such "sabotage" efforts are unsustainable - sooner or later they must run out of crypto to sell, not get their doom and gloom media reports believed anymore, have their defensive regulations flaunted or circumvented, accept that banks will deal with crypto etc. How would they sustain the attack?
They're trying to put a cork plug in a volcano - it can't hold. the wise will store value in crypto if they are playing a long-term game. Ironically, the more crypto price is artificially kept low, the more attractive it becomes as a long-term investment.