No messing about today. I just want to show you an overlay.

The first half of 2018 was the second biggest bear market in Bitcoin history (in terms of both percentage of value lost in USD and in duration). The worst bear market was from December 2013 until January 2015; just over a year of falling price, whereafter it bumped along sideways for nine months before finally rising again.

I like patterns. Patterns in trading exist for a reason. They are not just pretty shapes on a chart, coincidences, or useless TA which means nothing. As I have said before: Bit Brain's Fourth Law of Crypto is "Technical Analysis is a graphical representation of market psychology. It is a way to visualise the feelings of masses of people wrt trading."

Human beings are predictable creatures, we don't change; at least not very rapidly. Hence our behaviour patterns repeat; hence TA patterns repeat.

Let's look at my latest prediction based on a repeating pattern: that of the biggest bear markets in BTC history.

We will start by looking at the current chart: from December 2017 until now - the second biggest bear market in BTC history.

BTC long-term pattern analysis

You're probably very familiar with that picture. I notice more and more that it looks like its older, larger brother. Of course I'm speaking about the largest bear market in BTC history - December 2013 until January 2015. That first big bear market was longer than the most recent one by a factor of approximately two. This is what it looked like:

You should already see that it is similar to the chart above it. I extended it a bit beyond where the bear market ended to allow you to see the sideways movement period and where it turned upward.

The sharp-eyed among you will have noticed that the time scales of the two charts are not the same. I have already scaled them to compensate for the longer bear market that occurred the first time around. This enables me to overlay them on one another, and with a little fine tuning (though no cheating or altering of data - merely adjusted the scales to make the charts align) this is the result:

The blue is old, the red is new. No not a perfect match, but only the harshest of critics can deny the strong correlation there. Bit Brain does not consider it a coincidence that the two biggest bear markets in BTC history line up so well. He considers it to be very strong evidence of a repeating pattern and an equally strong indicator of future BTC price movements.

So yes, I am still saying that you should expect something along the lines of what I predicted in this post: one more dip before the proper bull market begins, followed by a real humdinger of a bull market. A Institutional Funds FOMO Bull Market! (I've been wanting to discuss that as a separate post for a while now, perhaps I still will.)

A market driven by institutional money (the likes of which has already started moving overtly into crypto over the last few weeks) FOMO has more than enough buying power to sustain truly massive crypto price increases. I predict that we will be seeing new All Time Highs for cryptocurrencies that are far beyond their old ones.

Take a look at the chart below which shows where I stopped on my comparison chart above. Everything to the right of the arrow could happen in the next big bull run, only this time it will be starting at around our current price level, not $300 as before. Extrapolate that as you see fit.

Of course I may be wrong, but my logic is sound and I think I'm right. Fundamental Analysis of the market backs me up and even market sentiment is slowly coming round (the weak hands are getting ready to FOMO and buy back in).

What are your thoughts on the future of BTC based on long-term pattern analysis?

Okay that's great - but I don't want to hear them. Whatever they were, just erase them and replace them with my own. 😄

Yours in pattern repeating crypto,
Bit Brain

Yours in pattern repeating crypto,
Bit Brain

Yours in pattern repeating crypto,
Bit Brain

All charts in this post were made by Bit Brain using TradingView. Some were modified to create the overlays.

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by Bit Brain

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