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RE: Bitcoin rises because land is becoming worthless

in #cryptocurrency6 years ago (edited)

View my post again and see the chart I added. Also click the link I provided to Martin Armstrong’s blog. As you can clearly see, Bitcoin is one of the few assets in the world which broke out over the downtrend line after July 12 along with the US and Canadian dollars (and their stock markets). The rest of the world, gold, and silver didn’t have this breakout.

Note that July 12 was a turning point on Armstrong’s ECM model. Read his blog post and correlate it to my chart of BTC above.

BTC looks to be a buy now, unless somehow this breakout was a bull trap. I did predict the recent move to $8000+ be a bull trap. Also I called the triple bottom at $6000. All those predictions were in my bitcointalk.org posts under the username @‍anunymint. All the posts were nuked.

BTC has very likely bottomed at $5850 and are going to moon again during the year of the next mining minted block reward halving which is 2020. The halving will be at the end of Q1 2020 (earlier than past halvings) so we should start to break out above the last ATH no later then Q2 2020. We can see the U bottom forming as it is did in 2014 and 2015.

IOW, as Armstrong’s thesis short-dollar vortex peaks going into 2020, that is when capital will shift out of the USD dollar bubble and into Bitcoin sending BTC to a nosebleed, moon ATH in 2021. All the world’s capital has to stampede first into the USD by 2020 and once it is caught up there, it needs a new place to go as that peaks. Bitcoin and other tangible assets will be the only thing remaining as capital needs to get off-the-grid of the clusterfucked financial system.

Armstrong needs to pay attention. Bitcoin is clearly the alternative reserve asset to the US Dollar. It is growing while the USD will peak coming 2020 or so. By middle of next decade Bitcoin will be over $5 trillion market capitalization. Gold and silver are not responding as alternatives. They are highly impractical now because you can’t travel with them.

The following charts scares everyone into thinking we may go much lower:


(click to zoom)

But notice the breakout above downtrend line in 2014 did not immediately come back down to test the breakout downtrend line as support. And notice how just before the breakout in 2014, BTC made a lower low.

Whereas in 2018, we had a triple bottom at $6000ish and the breakout did come back down to test the downtrend line. This appears to be forming a much shorter duration cup than 2014 – 15.

Also note that the prior halving was July/August 2016 and BTC bottomed in January 2015, so 16 months prior. The coming halving will be end of Q1 2020, so we should bottom in September 2018. We could possibly bull trap bounce again and come back down to test $6000ish again by Q4 2018. IOW, the U bottom must be much more compressed because the next halving is sooner.

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Enjoyed this read. Thank you and sorry about the BCT nukes. Will you use Dan's STEEMIT 2.0 on EOS?

Health willing, I will use my own “STEEMIT 2.0” on my own project.

I think there are serious economics and technological deficiencies in Dan’s design.

But I have to qualify that about my health, because this is still slowing me down considerably. Starting today I’m making another significant set of changes and sacrifices to my daily routine in a desperate attempt to get my liver and spleen to function normally.

I will not go into significant detail. I will just comment in the future as to whether I have sufficient health improvement.

Also, any guesses as to general forward comparative vs BTC performance of non-security, non ERC20 alts ?

Altcoins are significantly under performing while BTC has not finished bottoming. This may continue through the rest of 2018, if the bottoming process will be drawn out.

Presumably sometime in 2019, my expectation is altcoins will come back into favor when public confidence is convinced that BTC is definitely moving up again.

The last time when altcoins started to move up again in 2016, it seemed to be selective at first (e.g. Litecoin lagged and I was screaming to buy it at $6, then it went to $350+ in 2017). It wasn’t until 2017 when BTC was seriously mooning did all the altcoins go up, as speculators looked around for those altcoins which were undervalued. So speculators (not hodlers) tend to move to Bitcoin (the reserve asset) during retrenches, then slowing diversify into undervalued altcoins with a priority on the best altcoins first. Then at the end of the bubble all the shitcoins move up also.

I also think eventually an altcoin will become so dominant that most of the others will fall away and die. I am not sure how many more years for that dominant altcoin to arrive, but I am certainly working on creating it (my health being my major obstacle).

Not many non-security ERC-20 tokens seem to exist. I wrote a blog about that: A Utility Token is a Unicorn. EOS for example appears to me to be security. About EOS, see that blog on security tokens and also Scaling, Decentralization, Security of Distributed Ledgers.

I suppose it’s also possible that Bitcoin goes into a multi-year bottoming process, but I just don’t think that is very likely.

Thanks for the post. Worth a follow: https://www.tradingview.com/u/Intuit/

I think he may be correct that we’ll bottom soon with an ETF approval coming:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/NeMczfPu-Crypto-Bears-Still-in-Control-Until-Likely-ETF-Approval-in-Sept/

On my chart, I see three possible (quadruple!) bottoms and timing which stay above the downtrend line which Bitcoin broke out above on July 12:

  • $5850 approximately Aug 22
  • $5500 approximately Sept 6
  • $5200 approximately Sept 18

I don’t expect we will move lower than that. The bottom is either already behind us at $5850 or coming within the next 35 days.

See also my latest rebuttal of Martin Armstrong:

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-goldgoatsnguns-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-rises-because-land-is-becoming-worthless-20180812t142803478z

EDIT: Is Barry Silbert’s Twitter poll is a contrarian indicator (massive bearishness is the blood in the streets we need for a bottom)?

EDIT#2: note Bitcoin will likely not bottom until 2020 (although we may get a deadcat bounce to $10k first) and next peak over $100,000 not until 2023.

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