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RE: Bitcoin rises because land is becoming worthless
Also, any guesses as to general forward comparative vs BTC performance of non-security, non ERC20 alts ?
Also, any guesses as to general forward comparative vs BTC performance of non-security, non ERC20 alts ?
Altcoins are significantly under performing while BTC has not finished bottoming. This may continue through the rest of 2018, if the bottoming process will be drawn out.
Presumably sometime in 2019, my expectation is altcoins will come back into favor when public confidence is convinced that BTC is definitely moving up again.
The last time when altcoins started to move up again in 2016, it seemed to be selective at first (e.g. Litecoin lagged and I was screaming to buy it at $6, then it went to $350+ in 2017). It wasn’t until 2017 when BTC was seriously mooning did all the altcoins go up, as speculators looked around for those altcoins which were undervalued. So speculators (not hodlers) tend to move to Bitcoin (the reserve asset) during retrenches, then slowing diversify into undervalued altcoins with a priority on the best altcoins first. Then at the end of the bubble all the shitcoins move up also.
I also think eventually an altcoin will become so dominant that most of the others will fall away and die. I am not sure how many more years for that dominant altcoin to arrive, but I am certainly working on creating it (my health being my major obstacle).
Not many non-security ERC-20 tokens seem to exist. I wrote a blog about that: A Utility Token is a Unicorn. EOS for example appears to me to be security. About EOS, see that blog on security tokens and also Scaling, Decentralization, Security of Distributed Ledgers.
I suppose it’s also possible that Bitcoin goes into a multi-year bottoming process, but I just don’t think that is very likely.
Thanks for the post. Worth a follow: https://www.tradingview.com/u/Intuit/
I think he may be correct that we’ll bottom soon with an ETF approval coming:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/NeMczfPu-Crypto-Bears-Still-in-Control-Until-Likely-ETF-Approval-in-Sept/
On my chart, I see three possible (quadruple!) bottoms and timing which stay above the downtrend line which Bitcoin broke out above on July 12:
I don’t expect we will move lower than that. The bottom is either already behind us at $5850 or coming within the next 35 days.
See also my latest rebuttal of Martin Armstrong:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-goldgoatsnguns-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-rises-because-land-is-becoming-worthless-20180812t142803478z
EDIT: Is Barry Silbert’s Twitter poll is a contrarian indicator (massive bearishness is the blood in the streets we need for a bottom)?
EDIT#2: note Bitcoin will likely not bottom until 2020 (although we may get a deadcat bounce to $10k first) and next peak over $100,000 not until 2023.