RE: Shocking Crisis Coming to Cryptocurrency (in Sept?)
My recent thoughts from private chat:
I'm expecting BCH to exceed $1k to maybe $1800 but it's difficult to offer a timeframe yet
Yeah and I also want to trade SegWit BTC for LTC @ 0.013 soon. Remember don’t buy any BTC because it could be stolen in a chain reorganization. Only sell on the way up. It’s possible for LTC to move down to 0.0118 on this next move up for BTC to $4000. BTC for LTC would be a definite trade.
After LTC pumps, I’m out of crypto and into the dollar (and for you I imagine US stocks?) until I can safely buy back non-SegWit BTC without fear of a chain reorganization stealing the BTC. That is okay for me because I only have 3.7 BTC remaining right now. For you, I don't know if you want to entirely exit crypto? So I guess you should hold ETH or other large cap alts? But if the SegWit chain does fork (into TRB and SegWit), then could all alts get hit hard and speculators exit to fiat?
My thought is BCC (and LTC) will be the beneficiary if SegWit BTC forks. Because neither BCC nor LTC will fork. BCC will be seen as the safe haven initially perhaps. I see a 3-way split of BTC into BCC, SegWit, and TRB. I think Bitman is buying everyone’s BCC with BTC that he plans to steal back by a huge chain reorganization funded with stolen SegWit.
In other words, I speculate that Jihan Wu may really be using BCC and LTC as leverage (decoys) to take more BTC from people. The SegWit was accepted by him because he knew it could finance his attack.
Well I will not be out of crypto if Bitnet launches. I will hold those tokens because will be very underpriced initially. I’ll probably also hang on to most of my STEEM.
John Stuart Millibit wrote:
There are now two versions of the same currency. One is Bitcoin Cash (BCC), the currency that branched away and the other is the “old” Bitcoin (BTC). That is not entirely true though. BTC also
changed[forked] at the time of the network split.The main changes are the adoption of segwit and promises of further diversion from the original rules of the game.
…
The second indication that we got for the viability of a new coin was … Mining power were prepared to mine at a loss to make a new branch come to life.
…
The way that segwit is implemented imposes great systemic risks.…that specific change [BCC’s emergency difficulty adjustment algorithm] could very well prove itself to be an advantage in some circumstances…
If the value of BCC surpassed BTC, you’d think that the mining power would shift accordingly, just adapting to the new world. That is not how it works. As previously mentioned, the difficulty adjustment rules of BTC is symmetrical. This means that you need to expend the same amount of resources to bring difficulty down as you did to bring it up. This has until now been considered a virtue, preventing malicious miner behaviour. The main problem with the symmetrical difficulty is that if BTC would ever loose a substantial amount of mining power, a vicious circle would start. It would even happen well before BCC became the dominating currency. Let’s assume that BCC takes away 30 percent of the mining power due to the better value proposition. Congestion would appear on the BTC branch and this could cause miners and investors to panic. They might assume that this time it very well could be permanent. A mass exodus to the safe option would happen almost instantly.
Blocks on the BTC branch would not be coming slightly slower. It would come to a grinding halt. The branch would be dead within days or even hours.
Correction to Millibit’s blog: SegWit didn’t just “change” BTC. It forked off from BTC!
This is a very crucial distinction, because it explains what the real Trojan Horse purpose of BCC is.
anonymous wrote in private chat:
It seems as though essentially the same attacks that can be made against Tor/I2P are applicable to any existing cryptocurrency. The mining depletion attack has always been a concern as well, but may not be as devastating as portrayed - even with 2/3rds of mining shifting off of BTC to BCC it would slow the network but rising fees should ameliorate further congestion.
I think you could possibly be underestimating the non-linear effects.
If SegWit is being stolen back to the TRB chain, then we have a 3 way split with SegWit being sold off like scalding potatoes. So I can see mass exodus and congestion trying to scramble to get out of that SegWit (Core) chain. Deathstar to 0 effect.
I have to wonder whether there may be some kind of effort at merging the chains (BTC/BCC) if there is enough of a stalemate in divergence.
IMHO, I really do not think that is the point at all. I think BCC is Trojan horse to enable Bitman (and their backers) to grab a huge amount of TRB. Keeping the LTC and BCC separate as a seesaw to milk more tokens from.
However, my expectation could be incorrect.
I think it is likely that LTC will come down to $42-$43 with Bitcoin at $5000+, so thus below 0.009. The lowest I see is $38, which may bring LTC down to that absolute low level of 0.0072. I would only nibble on LTC here. Increasing size as BTC rises and LTC declines. I would also be moving some to fiat. BCH also likely has to come down some before it can move higher.
LTCUSD has broken up out of a bullish continuation wedge that began with the peak in early July. Once it starts running up, it should quickly move to $80. With LTCBTC at 0.02 again that would be a dip for BTC (from presumably $5000+) back to $4000.
Hello!Do u think 0.032 is still coming for LTC? Thanks in advance!
I think so, but I’m not absolutely confident. Thus I’m also selling some BTC to $100 bills held under the mattress as well, to hedge my bets. Longer-term alternative to crypto is for example gold, but that could become quite illiquid in the coming global capital controls regime enveloping. My longer-term plan is the project I am working on which by the way, has been renamed Hypermesh from Bitnet (assuming my health will cooperate).
Do altcoins and LTC move up before the coming attack on SegWit starts? I think so. But what is the catalyst for LTC if BTC already has SegWit (or so everyone incorrectly thinks until the attack on BTC-SegWit begins). Nevertheless, I think LTC has been marvelously inversely correlated to BTC on LTCBTC on this parabolic blowoff top for BTC, so LTC would move in reverse when BTC declines. However, that might just keep the LTCUSD price from declining and not actually moving any higher relative to dollars. Yet as I wrote in my prior post, looks like LTCUSD has broken up out of a bullish wedge continuation pattern. Thus, overall I lean to BTC for LTC trade being wise as BTC moves to its coming peak (perhaps $5000+).
Notice that in November 2013, LTC made it’s rocket shot in only 2 days. Again in 2017, LTC was delayed in going up, not until after BTC had made a new ATH a few days prior. Zooming out on the LTCUSD chart, it is clearly rising in vertical moves in a staircase pattern. The next vertical move is $75 - $80. Thus yeah I’m reasonably confident about trading BTC for LTC.
Peak may have been hit yesterday as you were typing this
I was sleeping and missed the move to $4400. I had sent out a link yesterday on my private chat of a long-term hodler saying he would sell at that price.
Do you think we are still going higher for BTC? The volume on this correction is not really huge in retrospect (i.e. compared to more recent corrections). Looks to me that the price will still go higher.
I looked at the LTCUSD chart and appears to me that we have maybe 3 days of sideways action, then might slightly move down before the bottom. So I am thinking one more move up for BTC before this is done. Still thinking $5100. My long-term projection since months ago was $4000. Then recently I calculated the more precise top to be just above $5000. It is possible for some crazy spike higher than that ($8000?), but it would likely only be for an hour or less.
Your thoughts?
Also Bitcoin Cash might be a smart diversification because of the following:
I wrote:
EDIT: LTC peaked in early July when the NY agreement for SegWit was formalized a bit. Then it rebounded when there was uncertainty in mid-July, and then it started crashing when it was clear that SegWit on BTC was happening. Thus I conclude that until BTC peaks, LTC will decline. Once BTC peaks and BCH starts rising, then the slow difficulty adjustment of BTC is going to cause BCH mining to be more profitable and potentially causes an downward spiral for BTC as I and others have theorized in other comments. That is when I see LTC rebounding because BTC-SegWit is failing. At some point BCH peaks, then BTC-SegWit recovers, so LTC peaks at perhaps 0.032 then declines again. Then some time later perhaps the SegWit theft that I theorized begins. Some where in that mix LTC may make it to 0.05, but it is difficult for me to ponder that because I don’t know the timing on when SegWit transactions will become numerous. And whether LTC to 0.05 will come as a result of a complete failure of BTC-SegWit, or just an extension of a rally interim. The mess is getting quite complex to ponder.
What you can see is that until July, LTCBTC was following a similar staircase pattern as LTCUSD. Then LTCBTC diverged from the pattern. Clearly this is because SegWit happened on BTC.
Thank you for sharing your views! Get well soon! Looking forward to Hypermesh!
I instigated a brainstorming process in private chat over past few days attempting to find a better name than Bitnet. Becasuse I don’t want my novel consensus algorithm to be associated with the coming chaos/failure of Bitcoin. Also there are too many clone portmanteaus, e.g. BitDice, Bitpay, Bitshares, etc.. I needed a name to appeal to the masses that will not make them think my project is something for Bitcoin.
The Hyperbit name idea originates from me in 2015. Also we think hyper- the prefix means above and beyond in terms of functionality and that coupled with meshing, then it is both a good name of the novel technology wherein the consensus is provided by a mesh and also for the social networking concept of the onboarding and monetization paradigm.
As for my liver health, I am still battling to get back to fully normal energy level (and thus sustained cognition). Definitely improved since I completed the 6 months of liver toxic antibiotics (actually I only completed 22.5 weeks because my condition got intolerable), but I am still struggling sometimes (not always). I ran (more like stumbled and gritted my teeth through) 20 kms in the hills within 60 hours this week (4 kms runs bcz that is the most I can do before the liver cramps get too intolerable) at roughly 9 min per mile pace, which was very exhausting (and very unpleasant/difficult to do) given I hadn’t been doing much exercise the weeks prior due to trying to work nonstop on the computer. I was forced to ramp up exercise, because my allergic condition was coming back (can cause the throat to constrict and suffocate, caused extreme itchiness that led to an oozing scab on side of my face). In short, my health is still holding back somewhat, but I am making progress. This is not easy. Painful is not the apt word to describe it. I guess imagine a slave quarrying and carrying stones to build the pyramids. Sometimes unpleasant health and very difficult to do those runs and sometimes also very difficult just to read and sit at computer. But also over the past weeks, I did have some very good days where I was very lucid and got a lot of work done. Just feeling crap at the moment because the (autoimmunity, gut problems driven) allergy came back and then I tried to battle that with intense athletics (which my body really can’t handle well at this age of 52 and digestive/liver/immune destruction caused by the chronic illness and the toxins required to eradicate the pathogens).
I like Bitnet even if Bitcoin fails. Next generation.
What about Blocknet?