Chill: We Are Years Away From Mass Adoption
So where are we compared to the evolution of the Internet? 1993? 1994?
Whatever the answer, we are still early in the game. We have years to go before we see anything close to mass adoption. In spite of that, people are still calling for it.
In all my years following technology, I learned one overriding fact: technological ability is always light years ahead of people's willingness to change and embrace said technology.
People do not like to change, it is something they resist. While the world forges ahead, people try to slow it down. Ultimately, the technology always wins yet it is a battle.
Part of this is very reasonable. Technology is developed by geeks who are far ahead of the average person. This means that we have a time period where there is a disconnect. Ease of use is a big thing for the masses. Without this, there is no mass appeal.
Cryptocurrency is still rather difficult to use. People do not understand it. Dealing with keys is a pain in the behind. People also do not excel when responsibility for keeping things safe is thrust upon them.
All these are factors in the cryptocurrency world today.
Over time, we will see breakthroughs which do make it easier for the average user. We also will see enhanced security developments which will provide an acceptable level of security to make the average person feel comfortable.
Blockchain is going to be massive. We see all sectors of the business world starting to discuss this in some form. While much of it is not what I consider truly blockchain, since it lacks decentralization, it is starting to put things on the map. People are awakening to this technology.
It is easy to lose sight of how early in the process we truly are. This industry is still in the wild west stage meaning people can head in any direction. We do not have a clear path laid out at this time. We will see a point where the industry starts to head in a chosen direction yet we are not there yet. The early days of the Internet were similar.
At some point, we shall see a breakthrough moment. Just like the web browser did wonders for the Internet, we will see something similar in the world of blockchain and cryptocurrency. Perhaps it is a universal protocol that everyone agrees upon. Maybe it will be a wallet system that streamlines everything while making it "idiot" proof. Whatever the development, it will be here at some point.
We all are apt to get impatient with things. There is so much potential for altering the plight of humanity that we want it all to happen now. Sadly, we are looking at more than 5 years before we see the radical shifts across the entire human population. We simply cannot rush the technology nor can we speed up the adoption of it.
Humans are still going to resist changing.
That does not mean we will not see incredible growth over the next couple years. I believe we will. However, when we look back a decade from now, the next three years will look flat compared to the 5 that follow it. As we near the middle of the next decade, we will really start to see things accelerating.
Wall Street is gearing up to enter the cryptocurrency world. We will most likely see a massive explosion in the price of coins over the next couple years. This will probably cause things to get out of control while outpacing the technology. Again, we saw that with the dot.com boom. There were a lot of great innovations from that era along with some dogs. Not everything in the crypto world is going to come up golden.
I am a firm believer that what we are doing here is going to change the world. This entire industry is about disruption. Unfortunately, it is not going to happen overnight. While the prices might run when Wall Street starts tossing it's money around, the technology will evolve over time.
And it is a process that we cannot speed up.
Have faith: the masses will be here at some point. They will not stay away forever.
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The masses resistance to change is well documented over the past 100 years. First they laugh at you. Then they actively resist you. When the technology wins with mass adoption they claim it was their idea all along. Human nature can be frustrating in the extreme. Why I think things will move faster this time around is due to the mass adoption of the internet being already in place. Getting people to buy home computers and cell phones was slow because it was hard to get the information to them why they should buy them. There is internet in over 1 billion homes globally and cryptocurrency information is only 3 clicks away for a billion people. We saw the mania last December when Bitcoin almost hit $20,000. That was without any institutional money. This next round of expansion will be driven by FOMO again but will also have the horsepower of institutional billions. I think mass adoption is closer than we realize. I do agree we need idiot proof wallets to reach the tipping point. Come on geeks, get us to the solution. I want my Lambo! Just kidding folks.
We are all early adopters. :)
The main problem is centralization, not adoption!
A rule of UX design is: when you make something "idiot proof", the universe will serve you better idiots. Interfaces need to be simple, but powerful. In an ideal world, this is done by empowering and educating the user, not by dumbing down the interface.
You are right that ease is a major factor in mass adoption, but with the masses, the massive problems arrive, to.
You mention then internet of the 1990'ies, thus you seem to be old enough to have lived in this internet. I connected to the Internet using a Modem and a SLIP PPP link back then, I was 15 years old when I used real tcp/ip the first time. Back then you needed to understand a lot to be able to use the net. Then came AOL, and with AOL came everybody to the internet, giving AOL and its walled garden the not-so-nice nickname "Internet for idiots". Then came apple with the iPhone and of course Facebook and other platforms like this.
The Internet I grew up in was fully decentralized, non-commercial, free (as in beer and as in speech). Mass adoption ruined it.
The "internet" of today consists of walled gardens of greedy mighty corporations the belittle, patronize and exploit their user bases.
The average user of 1990ies Internet was smart, aware of the technology, and in control of their own equipment.
The average user of today's Internet is swamped, uses device the manufacturer has more control over than the owner and uses only the content and services offered by their gatekeepers.
I want the spirit of the internet of the 1990ies with the technical possibilites 2018 tech gives us.
Crypto is one tool to make that happen. If we don't blow it.
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Great post! Totally agree, the mainstream can not handle crypto yet. We have time.
With the amount of capital coming into start ups and projects around the blockchain industry, we will soon see inprovements in wallets with improved security and user interface. You are right that this will be the key development to initiate the exponential growth in adoption.
You make a point about the recalcitrance of people in general, but the example with the internet is maybe not the most current one. If you look at e.g. the impact of mobile phones, the iphone is only 10 years old, and today you cant imagine a time without it. Also Social Media (which is of course based on Internet 1.0), adopted much more quickly, within a few years it has become, and i feel especially DPOS chains like steem, demonstrate it can be pretty easy to use..... so it wont happen today, but maybe more rapidly then we can imagine.
I think the turning point will happen in summer 2020 and that the bear market will be over by the last quarter of 2019 (at the latest). If I had to guess based upon the last two moon shots (late 2013 and late 2017), the scale between these two is about 15x. That means that we could be looking at a price of about 300K for bitcoin by early 2021 (sorry John McAfee).
Parabolic curves are difficult to calculate accurately because a small error can create differences of significant magnitude. For instance a parabolic curve could have bitcoin at 300K on Jan 1, 2021 and bitcoin at 1,000K a month later. Hopefully bitcoin doesn't become worth one million USD because the USD devalued to the point where it takes $1000 to fill up your gas tank. We will know when mass adoption happens, when crypto is no longer priced in USD, British pounds, etc. When one of the crypto's becomes the unit of account, mass adoption is already here.