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     6 years ago 

    I am just sitting in front of your post with a friend of mine (@knircky) discussing your long term chart. We were wondering about two things:

    • When do you expect the top in 2018. In your chart it looks like year end. Is that correct?
    • Your ABC correction ending in 2024 into the 500ish price level - that would leave bitcoin with a market cap of 10.5 billion USD. We were thinking that would mean bitcoin is dead because it is too small to work as store of value. Also the several years of declining would "destroy" the use case as store of value against (hyper-)inflation. I know that you are concentrating only on the TA aspect regardless of the fundamentals but still we would be interested to hear your thoughts on this.
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       6 years ago (edited)

      Thanks for the insightful questions, @famunger.

      In answer to your first, though backed by nothing quantifiable beyond where the projected trendline and top of the channel happened to intersect, - that insane projected high north of 66k landed in the vicinity of July of 2018.

      As to any prospective Cycle Degree decline in the vicinity of 2024, which is also a non-quantified time-frame, I used two quick downside targets for a plausible wave-2 down of such magnitude. The first is the notoriously common retracement to the 4th wave of one lesser degree, which in this case is the primary red 4-wave in the $200 area. The second such target is in the $920 area, which is another common retracement level target defined by the base of wave (2) amid such an extension.

      As to the fundamentals of viability and market cap - I have no clue. For all I know we might have an entirely new financial system by that time. Ya never know...

      Maybe with this new "lightening" network on the blockchain or perhaps even with the future introduction of the much-touted superior "hashgraph technology," the financial system (including cyrpto's), in 2024 and beyond - might not look anything at all what it looks like today.

      PS - I do have a Fibonacci "time" projection tool on my tradestation platform that aided greatly in calling the last high in the gold market precisely in September of 2011. I do not recall seeing such a tool in the trading view platform, but it would be interesting to play around with. Fibonacci "turn-dates" as I call them, can often mark important highs or lows +/- one or two bars within the various studies.

      Hope all of that helped somewhat! :-)

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         6 years ago 

        Thanks for your response and insights. Does make sense a lot and helped us understanding.

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