RE: A Pathway to $66,000 BTC by July of 2018 (for my friend @ew-and-patterns)
I am following @ew-and-patterns for quite some time and came to your post through his resteem. I read several analysts regularly - Tone Vays is one of them but I haven't seen an analysis on the long term yet. It answers the questions when will this bull run come to an end and that is something I am thinking about a lot. That said beside the TA it is totally in line with crowd behavior I am experiencing. What I see at the moment is money piling up for a rebuy at a dip. So I feel we will go down to the 5'-7'000 range as you and @ew-and-patterns says. After that a lot of people want to get on the train. Massive rebound bringing as to all time highs which will be insane. After that we get a massive sell off - a lot of people get burned and not touching bitcoin for a long time which would lead to cycle wave 2.
I feel like with your post things come together to a clear picture. Of course - alternate scenarios are possible and fundamentals like regulations could lead to different scenarios but my main scenario is with yours.
Thanks for that precious post. Hope to see more of you in the future.
Thank you for sharing your most astute insights and kind words, friend!
I am just sitting in front of your post with a friend of mine (@knircky) discussing your long term chart. We were wondering about two things:
Thanks for the insightful questions, @famunger.
In answer to your first, though backed by nothing quantifiable beyond where the projected trendline and top of the channel happened to intersect, - that insane projected high north of 66k landed in the vicinity of July of 2018.
As to any prospective Cycle Degree decline in the vicinity of 2024, which is also a non-quantified time-frame, I used two quick downside targets for a plausible wave-2 down of such magnitude. The first is the notoriously common retracement to the 4th wave of one lesser degree, which in this case is the primary red 4-wave in the $200 area. The second such target is in the $920 area, which is another common retracement level target defined by the base of wave (2) amid such an extension.
As to the fundamentals of viability and market cap - I have no clue. For all I know we might have an entirely new financial system by that time. Ya never know...
Maybe with this new "lightening" network on the blockchain or perhaps even with the future introduction of the much-touted superior "hashgraph technology," the financial system (including cyrpto's), in 2024 and beyond - might not look anything at all what it looks like today.
Hope all of that helped somewhat! :-)
Thanks for your response and insights. Does make sense a lot and helped us understanding.