Hard to Find Weakness
Weakness is hard to find in this market, and, curiously, BTC is within that relatively weak group as defined by crypto that has still to regain the 200 DMA.
Make of it what you will, but the fact is that the market ‘leader’ is weaker than most.
Now the debate should be: is BTC losing ground long term, or just indicating another bearish move lower for crypto in general. (Hint: on a relative basis it’s been losing ground for a long time now.)
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It as well could be. However before we make any predictions we should be really cautious. I have seen so many times this kind of sentiment. In this market it’s really hard to predict. My feeling is sideways for time being. I was expecting bitcoin to break 10K, but now seing 200MA it all make sense. We need some kind of great news for bitcoin to break both. Just because bitcoin is weak, doesn’t mean it stays weak. RSI is in my opinion still to the upside. If you look at RSI history right before last year’s in November and compare it with today’s you can clearly see it still has way to go.
Good perspective and advice, as always.
Consensus 2018 might be the big thing. 4000+ guests and a lot of key figures will speak, so this might mark the end of the bear market and eventually the beginning of a new bull market.
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$BTC showing some weakness on higher timeframes with a bearish divergence. On lower timeframes you can make the argument of a pennant forming...BTC the weakest of the big 3. Finding support on the 50ema
That shorter timeframe pattern could be indicating a bit more short term weakness.
It almost looks like a reversed H&S. My guess is bitcoin will break higher. Once this happens, it will be unstoppable. Today’s SEC meeting was laughable. I call it another FUD 😆. After today’s dip it’s now nicely recovering. That’s the good sign.
Perhaps too long! I’m ready for anything. But hoping for break of 200 moving average and well above!
There are lots of inverse H&S possible building, especially among those I consider to be the better bets.
BTW, do you have any links to the SEC meeting?
Not directly, it was actualy behind the closed doors or some even say it was a hoax. I heard mostly about it from @dhenz @ @crypt0.
BTC is the most solid coin atm, nothing is lost by investing in it, unless it has a considerable rise but has the advantage of being at the top of the podium.
You could even consider it a crypto "blue chip". In fact, I'd say it is considered a blue chip. Less speculative, and less like to have spectacular gains too.
I believe Bitcoin is slowly losing strength because at this point, it really doesn't provide anything that other crypto currencies don't provide, the only thing btc has left for it is that it was the first one and the one to go big and it was the poster boy of the crypto revolution.
Bitcoin right now is running on obsolete tech, the transaction fees are lower than what they where in December but they are relatively high compared to other cryptos(including Steem which are almost zero) and i expect BTC market dominance to hit 30% at some point in the next few months and if we have a decent alts rally, i would not be surprised if it went down to 25%.
Bitcoin has accomplished its mission but its time to pass on the mantle because the dev team doesn't seem to be up to task to make drastic changes at this point, soon a new crypto king will be crowned or maybe there won't be a new king at all but for now.... The King is dead, Long live the King!
I pretty much agree with you on all counts. It is what it is, and I think BTC just might end up being the Osborne 1 of crypto.
I'm not convinced the two are mutually exclusive. While we've seen a nice recovery lately across all crypto, all the indicators suggest an overall slowdown in "new" interest in crypto. See, in particular: https://cointelegraph.com/news/pro-btc-wall-st-analyst-urges-not-to-buy-crypto-now-despite-recent-rally
Because BTC is what most people buy due to awareness and Coinbase's limited menu, it's an indicator of overall crypto interest. That being said, I also agree there's a long-term shift towards alts from BTC, esp. amongst longer term investors so BTC has double exposure there.
All this to say - some of the reasons why I'm not in BTC at the moment and instead in alts!
Very valid point, and I'd say they're not.
This topic is very interesting, as time goes by bitcoin dominance is decreasing, but it is still leading the market.
In January 2017 its dominance was 85%, today it is 36% and it seems that it will not return to 50%. Maybe in the future the fluctuations of bitcoin will not affect the altcoins so much and these will depend exclusively on other factors.
I also believe that if we break the 200 MA, a good part of the capital will go to BTC, but as soon as this stabilizes, it will return to altcoins.
That's a pattern we have come to know and love, but is it forever? 😉
Definitely not,shorter lows will be compensated by greater highs...
We all know what potential bitcoin has...
Maybe it is the struggling time but be prepared for the Boom
Bitcoin S3: 8824.24
S2: 9084.93
S1: 9240.51
P: 9345.62
R1: 9501.2
R2: 9606.31
R3: 9867 ( These are the current support and resistance level for Daily movement.)
The price has dropped to $9,300, demonstrating another 3 percent decline in value over the past 24 hours after failing to test the $10,000 support level. The market followed the short-term price trend of BTC and has dropped more than $20 billion overnight.
Even though, I beleive it is just creating its ground for further movement to the top. 200 Day market Analysis also proving its current price strength. Though, it has need a great news to break through the 10k mark. If it can break that support level, it will sure go for another big bullish trend.( Just my thought)
Sound analysis. Your S2 could be holding.
Already it bounced once from $9190. S2 is now on focus.And thanks.
I think BTC is a key indicator of the overall market sentiment but it has a lot of its value priced into it right now given where it has come from since its creation. Therefore, other assets with promising projects will tend to outperform when demand and sentiment is positive in the market. So when these overall increases happen BTC dominance will fall like it has recently from 48% to below 37%. This is not a bad thing for BTC either as it cannot be expected to always dominate the market cap forever. Rather, certain projects will dominate in their own space (i.e. ETH in platform and Dash in privacy coins). The market as a whole will continue to move forward.
Yes, I agree. The future of crypto will be more of a niche market for all the winners, with the biggest winners being those that are still up-and-coming in their individual spaces (and BTC has had of lot of its value built in already).
I think we will slowly see a decline in btc dominance but it will be slow going. As far as the crypto markets in general are concerned, we seem to be teetering at a pivotal point right now. It’s good to see some coins start to move on their own and not everything just follow btc like it used to.
I have no idea where btc is going next. I was convinced it was going to form an ascending wedge and eventually break through 10k but I’m not certain about that. Sadly the investment banks and the hedge funds and now involved in the trading of cryptos so it’s going to be harder to predict direction based on TA / indicators.
It looks like $9,000 might be building as support. It's a big technical level I've seen people commenting on. We shall see. It could be building a base.