BTC Swing Trade Update
Over 2 weeks ago I talked about some key levels on BTC in a post entitled Let’s be realistic. Price action looks to be confirming those levels, and today I want to “zoom in” on those levels and add yet another level that could well be holding up.
The $9,750 level was briefly broken, but ultimately price fell back below. What the bulls want to see in BTC and their other favorite Alts is a bullish retracement that holds between the 61.8 and the 50 percent levels.
Bitcoin is currently finding support at the 50% retrace of the entire move off of its April secondary higher low, the curling higher 50 DMA and the lower Bollinger Band. Yesterday’s candle was a near doji right at the just mention support. Today, as of this writing, price has regained the 38.2 retrace and bested yesterday’s high after having made a higher low.
As I mentioned in my Let’s be realistic post, this is a very good time to be watching how your favorite Alts are behaving in comparison. Mine are all pretty much mirroring BTC’s confluence of support, with some performing a little better, and some a little worse. Curiously, STEEM and SYS, two of my biggest favorites, are doing the worst, short term, briefly having fallen below that support. Go figure.
Bullish above, bearish below the confluence of 50-61.8 Fibs, 50 DMA and lower Boll confluence of support.
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
For example if you look at bitcoin and compare it with previous years I definitely see how the cycle is potentially playing out again. It’s rounded bottom forming, or reversed H&S, we just have to be patient. I don’t do wave counting, but I have been watching it, especially “Ronnie Fattal” he does gold mostly and since I’m invested in gold I watch him some times. Right now I noticed some people who use this method for crypto saying there is a wave coming which will cause the crypto to go a bit lower and than to explode. From my technical perspective I see formation of rounded bottom or H&R in most cases and when you take a look at MACD, it’s so tight, it feels like it wants to shoot up. It’s getting very tight week by week. My prediction is we consolidate for another few months with bumps and dumps based on history. We may as well be forming cup & handle. It all depends if we bounce at some point and break 10K along with 200MA even though the neck of the right shoulder could be even higher now, perhaps 10.5K. The recent sell off volume concerns me, it’s a huge followed by two small green candles which means it’s consolidating before another big move. It may sound frustrating, but I think we are heading a bit lower from now on, since I still have not seen this famous selloff when everyone starts thinking “it goes to zero”. It may not ever happen as well, which I’m hoping for. The sentiment after few days of selloffs is sideways. I can see bolinger band being pushed down. I hope 🤞 Im wrong. I hope underperforming Steem and SYS will eventually over-perform.
I'm seeing pretty much the same thing across the board . . . except for the possibility for much more downside. While it's possible, I think surprises will be to the upside. It's not guaranteed by any means, just that I think the odds are better for more upside from here than downside. That all having been said, I could just as well be wrong as right.
That’s exactly my point. Everyone has this feeling, some may think it will go down, some sideways and some up. We all could be right short term, but one thing is for sure, long term it’s to the upside with corrections. I’m certain you know that corrections are very healthy for any market. Can you imagine if crypto market went up only without any corrections? I don’t think any of us would be able to ride it all the way up, we are humans and in most cases we subconsciously refuse to become rich that fast. I guarantee you most of us would sell it half way and then buy it back all the way at the top. Unfortunately at the end most people loose money when all is done. If crypto rises 10x higher or more, I have no idea what I will do if I’m still in. I will make that decision once we get there, as of now I’m holding with some extra cash ready to invest if we get oversold. Other than that, I’m really happy with what I have.
I say a bullish next week.
Consensus 2018 is almost upon us and historically the prices have risen to great extent by the influence and positivity of the conference. So this should be interesting to observe as Bulls and bears fight it out and bulls just may have the edge
That could very well be a catalyst.
@cryptographic,
BTC is showing a less fluctuation when comparing to other crypto! Personally I like this stability and I wish the BULL is awaiting now. The seasonal trend is up to come! So in next couple of months BTC might rise and can be shown a high fluctuation as well!
STEEM showed a worst trend! But I have faith on it! I think it might reach atleast $40 in upcoming months with SMT!
Cheers~
Everyone is struggling now, but remember, the best time to buy is when you're scared!
There is this old saying:
This recent selloff could be tight to potential fraud or a rumor of fraud in Korea along with other things. However, in this kind of market only the patient once survive. Forget about selloff, about fraud. Just think about what internet went through before and during dot com bubble. Also short therm trading is almost impossible in this environment. You would have to be emotionless robot to break even. Long therm is the answer to success when it comes to investment. Because once it starts shooting up, it will be so quick and unexpected that it will be impossible to get on this speed train if you try to day-trade. This moment will happen once the institutions realize the crypto especially bitcoin is here to stay. It will be flood of crypto ETF’s on stock market. I saw it already a few times and always missed it, because I wasn’t in already, I wasn’t patient enough. I learned my lesson and now I buy whenever the dip comes and hold. However, I only buy whatever I can afford to lose. It keeps me sleep at night. That’s really important. Right now I’m not buying anything for the time being, I’m pretty much set. You are right we are at the support level and unless we break $10 000 level we are stuck for the time being.
Absolutely what I think as well: it's a long term super bull that will payoff extremely well for the patient.
Steem is up again, it's at 3.1$ as of now.
Seriously the markets took a big hit with the Upbit raid.
And here I was thinking about lambos again.
Gotta a wait a bit longer :p
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-raid-in-a-south-korean-crypto-exchange-rattled-the-wider-bitcoin-market-2018-05-11
When MarketWatch starts covering these things, you know crypto has gone primetime. Yes, and coming back to your point, that could well have sparked the better part of the selling. If price continues to recover quickly, I'll venture a guess that most pundints will permanently tie the two together.
Indeed.
More and more people are understanding the value of crypto and blockchain.
Upbit is the fourth largest cryptocurrency exchange so it's bound to have an effect.
If only people could remain calm and stay away from the FUD.
But there are always ups and downs, and it'll bounce back soon
Bitcoin continues to determine market direction but there seems to be continued interest in altcoin as BTC dominance remains below 38%. I think this will continue as it will be a big week for altcoins as Consensys starts in NYC tomorrow and we could expect lots of news that may bring interest to some assets in the space. This year attendance will be a record high which demonstrates how cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are going mainstream as more industries get involved. This could prove to be a catalyst for higher prices as some reports have posted correlations between Consenys event and higher prices.
Indeed! This could be a big week!
Very interesting! How do you respond to this graph? Please a little explanation, sir!
It looks like a broken downtrend. Now we need a higher low and higher high to confirm.
Thank you sir! I am very happy to have been notified with a short, solid, and clear language.
Have a wonderful and fun day always 🙏
I would be very confident with STEEM my friend.
I think is drawing a nice BULL flag which will reassure the uptrend continuation:
https://steemit.com/steem/@toofasteddie/steem-the-perfect-combination-of-successful-bullish-patterns
Steem on!
Looks like it's trying to bounce off your horizontal support.
It did already :-). Will see if steem can break the upper trendline:
When polled by Bitcoin Market Journal, several market analysts spoke in favor of using swing trading for bitcoin.
“I think swing trading is a good approach for [bitcoin] trading,” said Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged digital currency platform Whaleclub. “It is mature enough to not fluctuate too randomly and the trends are quite apparent over a few days or weeks.”
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, offered similar input, stating that bitcoin is volatile enough to support swing trading, as well as many other trading strategies.
Things are looking okay for the moment. This could be a good swing trade and I think those folks you mention are spot on.
Sometimes I am confused about what the market is doing for Bitcoin, because I see the price is now unstable, like the graphic you are sharing. But I've read from several other people's articles, they explain about the prediction that the price of Bitcoin will rise dramatically in this year. What do you think? Will it happen?
But in my opinion, it could happen, because all that is market politics. If indeed it will happen, I'm sure very many people will get rich, especially for those who have bought Bitcoin a lot from now on. Hopefully the prediction will be true, let the world will be many happy people. Thanks @cryptographic...
I am a long term super bull on crypto and I think it's very likely that Bitcoin and quality alts will rise dramatically once again.